‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’: Can Marvel Cinematic Universe finally win its first Oscar for Best Visual Effects?

Daniel Montgomery
·4 min read
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The Marvel Cinematic Universe has flooded multiplexes for 16 years now, going back to the 2008 launch of the sprawling franchise with “Iron Man.” But despite the glut of superhero movies and their extensive use of CGI, no MCU movie has ever won the Oscar for Best Visual Effects. Will that change this year with “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”?

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Since the MCU formally launched, it has earned 14 nominations for Best Visual Effects (excluding superhero films that take place outside of the canonical Marvel universe):

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2008: “Iron Man” (lost to “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”)

2010: “Iron Man 2” (lost to “Inception”)

2012: “The Avengers” (lost to “Life of Pi”)

2013: “Iron Man 3” (lost to “Gravity”)

2014: “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” and “Guardians of the Galaxy” (lost to “Interstellar”)

2016: “Doctor Strange” (lost to “The Jungle Book”)

2017: “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” (lost to “Blade Runner 2049”)

2018: “Avengers: Infinity War” (lost to “First Man”)

2019: “Avengers: Endgame” (lost to “1917”)

2021: “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” and “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (lost to “Dune”)

2022: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (lost to “Avatar: The Way of Water”)

2023: “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (pending)

SEEHow the ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ visual effects team designed Rocket’s evolution [Exclusive Video Interview]

The “Black Panther” movies officially ended the MCU’s Oscar drought by winning a combined four awards. The 2018 original claimed Best Costume Design, Best Production Design and Best Score, and the 2022 sequel “Wakanda Forever” repeated in Best Costume Design. Those are the only MCU Oscars to date. But “Black Panther” wasn’t even nominated for its visual effects, and “Wakanda Forever” lost that award to a different sequel, “Avatar: The Way of Water.”

As for the “Guardians of the Galaxy” films, all three space operas have now been nominated for their VFX, but this could actually be their golden opportunity. That’s because there’s no clear consensus as to which film will win this time around. If there’s a Best Picture nominee in the lineup, it usually prevails, but Critics Choice champ “Oppenheimer” didn’t even make the Oscars shortlist, and “Poor Things” missed the final five. And none of the films that did make the final five have clear, widespread academy support. The most nominated film among them is “Napoleon,” which only has three below-the-line bids.

Based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users as of this writing, “Godzilla Minus One” is the favorite to win, followed closely by “The Creator.” But “Guardians” is next in line with support from three of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Oscars and six of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the results from multiple years.

However, in recent years Marvel has been dogged by criticisms over its alleged bullying of visual effects teams. Might that bias voters against a Marvel movie like “Guardians” or instead inspire the academy’s sympathy for the nominated artists. I’m reminded that the cast and crew of “Bohemian Rhapsody” reportedly suffered under director Bryan Singer, and they were ultimately rewarded with four Oscars. Maybe academy members will cast a similar vote of support for embattled visual effects artists too.

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