Greta Gerwig could ride the ‘Barbie’ tidal wave all the way to the Oscars

Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan have been nominated alongside each other for Best Director at at the Oscars before. That was in 2018 when Gerwig secured a bid for “Lady Bird” and Nolan was up for “Dunkirk.” Neither of them won as Guillermo del Toro took home the gong for “The Shape of Water” but the duo was part of a stellar lineup of nominated filmmakers that also included Paul Thomas Anderson (“Phantom Thread”) and Jordan Peele (“Get Out”).

It looks like Gerwig and Nolan will be part of another Best Director lineup this year as we predict that they’ll be nominated alongside Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”), and Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”). Gerwig is expected to be nominated for her record-breaking Warner Bros. movie “Barbie,” which did battle at the box office with Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” when they both released on July 21 earlier this year (“Barbie” won). Now, Nolan is actually our predicted winner of Best Director while we also think that “Oppenheimer” will win Best Picture. But could Gerwig become this year’s dark horse for Best Director? Let’s discuss.

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Firstly, the academy kind of owes Gerwig. She has three Oscar nominations to her name, reaping an Original Screenplay bid alongside that aforementioned Best Director nomination for “Lady Bird” in 2018 along with an Adapted Screenplay bid in 2020 for “Little Women.” However, Gerwig was a strong contender to win Adapted Screenplay for “Little Women” and lost out to Taika Waititi for “Jojo Rabbit.” She was also snubbed for a Best Director nomination that year, which was one of the year’s biggest upsets, causing outcry online. It certainly felt like a notable omission so perhaps the academy will look to make that up to her this year by actually handing her Best Director. However, the same could be said for Nolan. He’s received four other Oscar bids to go with that “Dunkirk” Director nomination: Original Screenplay in 2002 for “Memento” (shared with brother Jonathan Nolan), Original Screenplay and Picture in 2011 for “Inception,” and Picture in 2018 for “Dunkirk.” He’s also missed out on some key nominations himself, including being snubbed for Best Director for “The Dark Knight,” “Inception,” and “Interstellar.” So the academy could equally look to hand Nolan Best Director here.

However, while “Oppenheimer” received great reviews and became Nolan’s biggest film at the box office, is the biopic really the director’s best film? “The Dark Knight,” “Inception,” “Interstellar,” and “Dunkirk” are all fantastic films and “The Dark Knight,” in particular, had a huge impact on comic book genre and industry at large. Can “Oppenheimer” really be considered his best film above the likes of those titles? It’s a debate.

What feels like less of a debate is “Barbie” being Gerwig’s best picture. Yes, “Lady Bird” was exquisite while “Little Women” is the definitive, superb adaptation Louisa May Alcott‘s book. But “Barbie” is a phenomenon. Not only did it gross over a billion dollars at the box office, but it inspired a cultural event. People dressed up in pink to go and see “Barbie” in theaters worldwide, viewers (including me) went to the cinema two or three times to watch the film, “I’m Just Ken” has been played on repeat ever since. It’s undoubtedly Gerwig’s boldest, bravest, most ambitious film so far and, in this writer’s opinion, is therefore her best. Perhaps voters will recognize this, will want to reward Gerwig for it, and may wait to bestow a Best Director win on Nolan for another film.

Because, while “Oppenheimer” is a fantastic film, is Nolan’s direction really the biggest talking point from the movie? It feels like Cillian Murphy‘s lead performance is the biggest takeaway from the film and he’s the one on everyone’s lips. The best thing about “Barbie” is easily Gerwig’s direction. Yes, the script, which Gerwig co-wrote with partner Noah Baumbach, is excellent. Yes, Ryan Gosling as Ken is a revelation. Yes, Margot Robbie carries the film as Barbie. But none of it works without Gerwig’s direction. The film is a high-wire act, balancing stylized tones and exaggerated comedic set pieces with genuine human emotion. And Gerwig executes it with aplomb, proving herself to be a master of tone and style while never losing sight of emotion. This is sure to be a controversial statement that many people will disagree with but, for me, “Barbie” is a much bolder directing achievement than “Oppenheimer.” Nolan is once-in-a-generation, fantastic filmmaker and “Oppenheimer” is an excellent movie but, in this writer’s opinion, his best directing achievements are “The Dark Knight” and “Interstellar.”

Of course, not everyone wins for their best work. Scorsese won Best Director in 2007 for “The Departed” when many would consider “Taxi Driver,” “Raging Bull,” or “Goodfellas” superior films. So, Nolan’s chances at a win aren’t necessarily harmed there. But looking back at previous Best Director winners shows us that voters like to reward films with the most distinct tones and unique flavors. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert won earlier this year for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Bong Joon-ho won in 2020 for “Parasite,” del Toro won in 2018 for “The Shape of Water,” Damien Chazelle won in 2017 for “La La Land,” Alejandro González Iñárritu won in 2015 for “Birdman,” Ang Lee won in 2013 for “Life of Pi,” and Michel Hazanavicius won in 2012 for “The Artist.” These are all bold flavors and it just feels like Gerwig and “Barbie” fits into this list of winners far better than Nolan and  “Oppenheimer” do.

Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” is also predicted to win Picture, Actor for Murphy, Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr, Cinematography, and Editing. That’s six predicted wins without including categories like Original Score and Sound, which “Oppenheimer” will also contend for. Will “Oppenheimer” really win six-eight Oscars? “Everything Everywhere All at Once” won seven last year but this type of clean sweep doesn’t actually happen often anymore. Best Picture winners “CODA” (2022), “Nomadland” (2021), “Green Book” (2019), “Moonlight” (2017), “12 Years a Slave” (2014), and “Argo” (2013) all won just three Oscars while “Parasite” (2020), “The Shape of Water” (2018), and “Birdman” won four, and “Spotlight” (2016) won two. In this strong year, will “Oppenheimer” really win Best Director, Best Picture, and five or six other Oscars? Or will another split happen? Perhaps “Oppenheimer” will win Picture and Gerwig Director? Equally, Nolan could win Director and another film, like “The Holdovers,” could claim Picture.

However, wouldn’t Gerwig winning Best Director just kind of fit the story of “Barbie?” Everyone was skeptical about “Barbie.” No one thought it would be much good. The trailer released and suddenly excitement for the movie was generated. The film then became the box office hit of the entire year, out-grossing Marvel movies and blockbusters alike. It also received excellent reviews, inspired the biggest cultural conversation of the year (in terms of movies, anyway), and produced plenty of discussions around femininity and masculinity alike. The success of “Barbie” is a great story in itself and Gerwig winning Best Director would be a great chapter to close. Films like “Barbie” do not come around often. Voters may want to reward this type of film while they can.

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