Grammys dilemma: Will Taylor Swift win another controversial Album of the Year title?
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The biggest Grammy Award of the night is Album of the Year, meant to honor complete pieces of work that defined the music scene and impacted the culture throughout the eligibility period. The award has gone to some of the most influential records of all time, including The Beatles’ “Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band,” Michael Jackson’s “Thriller” and Adele’s “21.” While some years are more uncertain than others, this year the category seems to be a two-horse race, although a few other players might sneak their way through as well.
The frontrunners here are Taylor Swift’s “Midnights” and SZA’s “SOS.” Both records are massive commercial successes, finishing 2023 as the second and third biggest albums of the year, respectively. Both have also managed to be career peaks for these already uber-popular stars.
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In SZA’s case, “SOS” was her sophomore album and served as proof that she was not just a one-era wonder; it became not only a more successful album than her debut “Ctrl” but also her album with the most hits. It netted multiple top-10 singles, including the number-one smash “Kill Bill” and the number-two follow-up “Snooze,” both Grammy-nominated. In Swift’s case, “Midnights” achieved her biggest first-week sales ever, excluding her re-recordings of her past albums, and kickstarted the Eras Tour, which is reportedly the highest-grossing of all time.
Either album would be a historic winner: Swift would break the record for the most Album of the Year victories ever by any artist (it would be her fourth), while SZA would be the first female R&B artist to win the award this century. Swift might have the edge in popularity, being comparable to The Beatles and Michael Jackson at this point of her career, but SZA has the edge in acclaim.
Voters’ willingness to give Swift a fourth win will be a factor here. While many might feel like that would be over-awarding her, others might argue that if anyone were to break the record, it should be Swift given how dominant she has become in the industry and how acclaimed her albums tend to be. Still, how would it look if Swift wins again over an acclaimed R&B or hip-hop album?
Music fans might’ve accepted Swift’s first Album of the Year win for “Fearless” over Beyoncé’s “I Am Sasha Fierce,” but many music critics have criticized Swift’s win for “1989” over Kendrick Lamar’s more acclaimed “To Pimp A Butterfly,” and still use that win to talk about how pop music — and particularly, white artists — tend to have better chances of winning top categories at the Grammys than artists of color. After all, no Black woman has won the award since Lauryn Hill in the ’90s, and the internet will certainly make sure to hold the Grammys accountable for that if Swift were to win again.
But even beyond the politics of the award, shouldn’t a similarly successful “SOS” win due to its much greater acclaim? A SZA win would not be far-fetched. She got nine nominations, more than any other artist, including bids across pop, R&B, and rap categories. That could indicate wide-ranging support from voters, perhaps wider than Swift’s. It is likely that Swift will take the majority of pop votes, but a lot of them could go to SZA too. With no rap album nominated, she is sure to get those votes, and her R&B peers will likely go for her as well; perhaps a couple of R&B musicians will vote for Janelle Monáe’s “The Age of Pleasure,” but it’s unlikely to be a serious threat to vote-split given how it only got one other nomination (Best Progressive R&B Album).
Some pop support and overwhelming R&B and rap support could add up to a lot of votes, especially if global or even alternative voters go with SZA too. Admittedly, alternative votes would be hard for her to get with both Boygenius’s “The Record” and Lana Del Rey’s “Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd” nominated too. Speaking of those, they would be a bigger threat to win if only one of them were nominated, but considering they’re pitted against each other in a tight race in their own genre field, it’s likely they’ll split the alternative/rock votes here too. So in the end, SZA and Swift will likely have more genre support than the rest.
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Except there’s one more serious contender: Jon Batiste. His 2022 win for “We Are” came out of nowhere, likely due to massive support from Americana, jazz, and R&B voters. He underperformed this year in the nominations, only getting three outside the general field (and his Best Pop Duo/Group Performance bid was likely carried by Lana Del Rey). Importantly, it seems like the American roots bloc wasn’t that enthusiastic about Batiste this year, and R&B completely snubbed him. That said, he might still be the default choice for many voters who prefer him to pop musicians Swift and SZA. I’d say Batiste will likely not win again, but he’s definitely in the running. During Grammy voting he was also Oscar campaigning for his documentary “American Symphony,” which might’ve helped him achieve more notoriety.
Ultimately, if it does come down to SZA versus Swift, I will give Swift the edge. It would be awesome to see this award finally go to an artist like SZA, but Swift’s popularity might be so great that just pop support is enough to win. After all, you could argue Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” had a similar chance of winning last year compared to SZA now, yet lost to the much simpler “Harry’s House” by Harry Styles. In the end, the Grammys like their big pop records much more than most.
Will win: Taylor Swift, “Midnights”
Could win: SZA, “SOS”
Dark horse: Jon Batiste, “World Music Radio”
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