Grammys 2020 Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

Noah Yoo, Marc Hogan

As the 2020 Grammys approach, change is seemingly in the air. After being criticized as an old, out-of-touch boys club for years, the 2019 ceremony was actually almost well-rounded and entertaining. Plus, expanded nominee lists have brought slightly more diversity to top categories over the last two years. Relative newcomer Lizzo leads the pack this time with eight nods, followed by Gen Z weirdos Billie Eilish and Lil Nas X, with six nominations each. Women in general earned their biggest share of nominations within top categories in eight years—though, at just 21 percent, the Grammys clearly still have a lot of work to do.

Meanwhile, the Recording Academy itself seems to be in turmoil after its new president and CEO, Deborah Dugan, was ousted under contentious circumstances last week. Since then, Dugan has filed an explosive discrimination complaint, alleging sexual harassment, racial discrimination, and corruption; current and former Grammy officials have denied the claims.

With all the surrounding drama, this should be quite the ceremony. It airs at 8 p.m. ET Sunday on CBS. Until then, here are our predictions of who will win and who should win—two very different things in the allegedly compromised Grammy universe.

Album of the Year

  • Bon Iver - i,i

  • Lana Del Rey - Norman Fucking Rockwell!

  • Billie Eilish - When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?

  • H.E.R. - I Used to Know Her

  • Ariana Grande - thank u, next

  • Lil Nas X - 7

  • Lizzo - Cuz I Love You

  • Vampire Weekend - Father of the Bride

Will Win: When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?
Should Win: Norman Fucking Rockwell!

From movie franchises to streaming services, Billie Eilish has been the go-to choice this past year for gazillion-dollar brands hoping to stay relevant. It helps that her debut album, When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?, warranted some genuine excitement by crashing through genre barriers with a sneer and a duh. As such, Eilish seems like a no-brainer pick for Grammy voters. This would make the 18-year-old the youngest Album of the Year winner ever, besting past record-holders like a 20-year-old Taylor Swift, a 21-year-old Alanis Morissette, and a 22-year-old Barbra Streisand.

As for who should win: Lana Del Rey’s Norman Fucking Rockwell! was our No. 1 album of 2019, and we’re standing by that. –Marc Hogan

Record of the Year

  • Bon Iver - “Hey, Ma”

  • Billie Eilish - “Bad Guy”

  • Ariana Grande - “7 rings”

  • H.E.R. - “Hard Place”

  • Khalid - “Talk”

  • Lil Nas X - “Old Town Road (Remix)” [ft. Billy Ray Cyrus]

  • Lizzo - “Truth Hurts”

  • Post Malone and Swae Lee - “Sunflower”

Will Win: “Old Town Road (Remix)”
Should Win: “Old Town Road (Remix)”

When it comes to capturing pop music in 2019, it’s hard to argue with “Old Town Road.” The genre-bending hit sparked a national conversation about who gets to be classified as country, then proceeded to top the Hot 100 for an unprecedented 19 weeks. And as a reminder to those looking to belittle Lil Nas X’s skills as a songwriter: Record of the Year focuses on overall sound and technical proficiency, and the Grammy not only goes to the artist but also the producer, recording engineer, and mixer. The only thing that would make this win better? If Trent Reznor walked away with a Grammy, too, for that creepy banjo sample permanently lodged in our brains. Alas, he’s credited as a co-producer on the song, but he doesn’t seem to be officially nominated. –Noah Yoo

Song of the Year

  • Lady Gaga - “Always Remember Us This Way”

  • Billie Eilish - “Bad Guy”

  • Tanya Tucker - “Bring My Flowers Now”

  • H.E.R. - “Hard Place”

  • Taylor Swift - “Lover”

  • Lana Del Rey - “Norman Fucking Rockwell”

  • Lewis Capaldi - “Someone You Loved”

  • Lizzo - “Truth Hurts”

Will Win: “Truth Hurts”
Should Win: “Norman Fucking Rockwell”

Now this is the songwriting award. Five years ago, Sam Smith won in this category despite soundalike controversy surrounding their hit “Stay With Me.” Look for Lizzo’s “Truth Hurts” to triumph this year amid its own credits dispute with songwriters. A 2017 single revitalized by new memes and film/ad syncs, it’s the kind of feel-good phenomenon that Grammy voters seemingly would want to recognize.

Sadly, “Norman Fucking Rockwell” doesn’t seem to stand a huge chance here, mostly because it’s tough to imagine the Grammys picking a song that begins, “Goddamn, man-child/You fucked me so good that I almost said, ‘I love you.’” Their loss, really. –MH

Best New Artist

  • Black Pumas

  • Billie Eilish

  • Lil Nas X

  • Lizzo

  • Maggie Rogers

  • Rosalía

  • Tank and the Bangas

  • Yola

Will Win: Billie Eilish
Should Win: Rosalía

It would be willful ignorance to assert that Billie Eilish was not the biggest breakout star of 2019, so the Best New Artist win for her seems almost inevitable. But there’s a case to be made for flamenco-pop innovator Rosalía, who capitalized on her breakout 2018 album El Mal Querer all last year with jaw-dropping live shows, six new songs accompanied by stunning music videos, and collaborations with James Blake and Travis Scott. Rosalía is also the first artist who sings almost entirely in Spanish to be nominated for Best New Artist, so a win for her would also be historic. –NY

Best Rap Album

  • Dreamville - Revenge of the Dreamers III

  • Meek Mill - Championships

  • 21 Savage - i am > i was

  • Tyler, the Creator - IGOR

  • YBN Cordae - The Lost Boy

Will Win: IGOR
Should Win: IGOR

Of all the nominees in the Rap Album category this year, Tyler’s fifth album has displayed the most staying power. That, plus the fact that he’s been invited to perform on the televised ceremony for the first time, suggests he has a good shot at taking the trophy home. When his last record, Flower Boy, was up for the award in 2018, Tyler faced stiff competition in Kendrick Lamar and JAY-Z. Now, having earned his first No. 1 album and further cemented his offbeat and necessary place in hip-hop, his chances seem a bit better. Then again, this is the same award show that gave Best Rap Album to Macklemore’s The Heist over good kid, m.A.A.D city, so truly anything can happen. –NY

Best Pop Vocal Album

  • Beyoncé - The Lion King: The Gift

  • Billie Eilish - When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?

  • Ariana Grande - thank u, next

  • Ed Sheeran - No.6 Collaborations Project

  • Taylor Swift - Lover

Will Win: Lover
Should Win: thank u, next

2017’s divisive pop turn Reputation was Taylor Swift’s least-nominated album in years, and her follow-up Lover was conspicuously snubbed in the Album of the Year category. But Swift did score a couple more nods this year, and much of Lover feels like a cozy return to the “old Taylor.” In that spirit of reconciliation, the Grammys may welcome her back with Best Pop Vocal Album, even if she doesn’t bring home any of the Big Four awards this year. Still, last year’s winner in this category, Ariana Grande, remained at the height of her vocal powers on thank u, next; considering Eilish is likely to win in the general categories, Grande is our pick for this award. –MH

Best Alternative Music Album

  • Big Thief - U.F.O.F.

  • James Blake - Assume Form

  • Bon Iver - i,i

  • Vampire Weekend - Father of the Bride

  • Thom Yorke - ANIMA

Will Win: i,i
Should Win: U.F.O.F.

In a perfect world, Big Thief would triumph for the low-key majesty of U.F.O.F., their third great album in a row and their first to be nominated for a Grammy. But they’re up against four acts who’ve been here before, and whose familiarity to voters will likely provide them with an edge. Of those, Bon Iver boasts one of the more impressive Grammy batting averages (including a win in this very category, for their self-titled 2011 LP) and, given the general acclaim for i,i, seems like a sound choice. Then again, fellow AOTY nominees Vampire Weekend also have a Best Alternative Album trophy to their name, so don’t count Ezra Koenig & co. out for an upset, and potentially droll onstage remarks. –MH

Best Dance/Electronic Album

  • Apparat - LP5

  • The Chemical Brothers - No Geography

  • Flume - Hi This Is Flume (Mixtape)

  • RÜFÜS DU SOL - Solace

  • Tycho - Weather

Should Win: No Geography
Will Win: No Geography

Best Dance/Electronic Album is rarely a contentious category, and this year is no different. The Chemical Brothers’ late-career highlight No Geography is their best in a decade and the clear stand-out of the bunch. History is on their side, too—every Chem Bros album released since the Dance Album category was instituted in 2005 has been nominated for the award, and they’ve already won it twice. That being said, a strong argument could also be made for Flume, another prior winner, whose Hi This Is Flume mixtape was his most forward-thinking release in years. –NY

Producer of the Year, Non-Classical

  • Jack Antonoff

  • Dan Auerbach

  • John Hill

  • Finneas

  • Ricky Reed

Should Win: Jack Antonoff or Ricky Reed
Will Win: Jack Antonoff

For the first time in a while, the Producer of the Year field is wide open. Greg Kurstin is nowhere to be found after winning in 2017 and 2018, and Pharrell’s presence on everything from Sweetener to “APESHIT” all but guaranteed his 2019 trophy. This year, the ones to watch are Ricky Reed, Jack Antonoff, and Finneas, who each helped produce a record nominated for Album of the Year: Lizzo’s Cuz I Love You, Lana’s Norman Fucking Rockwell!, and Billie’s When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?, respectively.

So, the deliberation likely comes down to what they did outside of those highly nominated albums. Antonoff also handled most of the production on Lover, while Reed produced songs for Camila Cabello and Maggie Rogers, among others. Given this, the odds seem slightly in Antonoff’s favor, but Reed has been nominated in the category before, so we’re calling it a tie. –NY

Originally Appeared on Pitchfork