Grammys 2018 Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win
The runup to this year’s Grammys began with some happy surprises. After years of criticism that the awards were too white and too bland, the nominations arrived top-loaded with dynamic artists of color, following the streaming-driven success of hip-hop, R&B, and Latin music on the charts. Even the title of Spotify’s most-streamed artist of 2017 couldn’t earn Ed Sheeran a nod in one of the Big Four categories (Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist). Could the Grammys be… changing?
In many ways, though, the song remains the same. Women are underrepresented in the top categories this year—unsurprising considering that fewer than one tenth of Grammy nominees in the last five years have been women. Major labels still predominate the awards; indie star Sufjan Stevens is nominated for an Oscar, but it’s still tough to imagine him onstage for “Music’s Biggest Night.” When within hip-hop, which the Grammys seem to be making more of a priority in the top categories, perhaps it’s more about expectations being lowered than in their choices being adventurous. I mean, even Tribe were overlooked for their stunning 2017 comeback.
Grammy mind-reading is especially tricky this year thanks to various rule changes, such as online voting and a dedicated rap committee. Never mind that, though: Here’s a rundown of who’s likely to take home the key awards and who we think is actually most deserving of them (within the nominees, at least).
Album of the Year
Childish Gambino: “Awaken, My Love!”
JAY-Z: 4:44
Kendrick Lamar: DAMN.
Lorde: Melodrama
Bruno Mars: 24K Magic
Will Win: 24K Magic
Should Win: DAMN.
JAY-Z claimed the most nominations of anyone this year (eight), but that’s usually a poor guide as to who will take home the Grammys’ top honor. Kendrick Lamar, who had the most culturally defining and critically acclaimed album of 2017 with DAMN., makes the strongest case. After defeats in previous years by Macklemore and Taylor Swift, a Kendrick victory also would nicely cap the show’s “we’re relevant” now redemption story. But Lorde is already a Grammy favorite, and the presence of Childish Gambino, AKA film and TV star Donald Glover, could be an X factor. But when in doubt, remember that this is the Grammys. Bruno Mars’ mix of musicianship, showmanship, and crowd-pleasing corniness could ultimately carry the day. Never mind that 24K Magic was relatively, ahem, lackluster.
Record of the Year
Childish Gambino: “Redbone”
Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee: “Despacito” [ft. Justin Bieber]
JAY-Z: “The Story of O.J.”
Kendrick Lamar: “HUMBLE.”
Bruno Mars: “24K Magic”
Will Win: “Despacito”
Should Win: “HUMBLE.”
It seems inconceivable that Grammy voters would fail to recognize the stupefying commercial success of Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Bieber-boosted “Despacito.” Record of the Year, unlike Song of the Year, recognizes a track’s overall production, and “Despacito” is a masterclass in how to craft streaming hits. A win for this polyglot Puerto Rican love letter would also serve as proper recognition for the ascendant Latin pop industry. But out of these tracks—a lesser hit from a past ROTY winner, a piercing “stay woke” anthem, an elder statesman’s stark acknowledgement of racial disparity—it was “HUMBLE.,” with Mike WiLL Made-It’s instantly recognizable barbs of piano, that reigned most convincingly over the year. Kendrick shouldn’t be left sitting down.
Song of the Year
Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee: “Despacito” [ft. Justin Bieber]
JAY-Z: “4:44”
Julia Michaels: “Issues”
Logic: “1-800-273-8255” [ft. Alessia Cara and Khalid]
Bruno Mars: “That’s What I Like”
Will Win: “1-800-273-8255”
Should Win: “4:44”
The numbers should add up for Logic’s “1-800-273-8255.” His sadly always-timely anti-suicide anthem combines the nerdcore rapper with two other artists under 30 that major labels are trying to make happen: Alessia Cara, the voice of 2015’s woozy sleeper hit “Here,” and Khalid, the pandering crooner behind “Young Dumb & Broke.” The answer to Logic’s repeated exhortation here—“Who can relate? Woo!”—is… young people as caricatured by Grammy voters. Look for fresh faces and a positive message to win the day in this category devoted to melodies and lyrics.
That’s a shame, not only because “1-800” is cloying, but also because a “Despacito” win would honor a veteran female songwriter, Panamanian hitmaker Erika Ender. Julia Michaels, the pop tunesmith who wowed in her own right with the radio-seeking missile that was “Issues,” could have an outside shot in a category that has been kind to singer-songwriters. But the best song here is the title track from JAY-Z’s latest, framed as his stirring apology to Beyoncé. That said, it would be kind of messed up if he won a Big Four award after Lemonade lost out last year.
Best New Artist
Alessia Cara
Khalid
Lil Uzi Vert
Julia Michaels
SZA
Will Win: Alessia Cara
Should Win: SZA
Yes, an underground-ish Chance the Rapper took home Best New Artist last year, but first he made sure to flatter voters with a particularly masterful Grammy ad. Esperanza Spalding in 2011 and Bon Iver in 2012 were exceptions in a category that tends to reward stolid industry figures like Meghan Trainor and Sam Smith. Alessia Cara showed promise when she emerged on YouTube a few years ago, and although her debut album didn’t quite capture her best, she’s since kept her mainstream relevance up by singing an Oscar-nominated Moana cut and teaming up with Zedd on his massive single “Stay.” While imagining the stodgiest Grammy voters singing along to a chorus of “all my friends are dead” is an amusing visual, a Lil Uzi Vert upset seems somewhat unlikely. Besides, the award should go to SZA, whose genre-melding Ctrl confessions made for one of the year’s most enduringly compelling listens. Just bear in mind this is an award Frank Ocean lost to fun., so keep your expectations low.
Best Rap Album
Kendrick Lamar: DAMN.
JAY-Z: 4:44
Migos: Culture
Rapsody: Laila’s Wisdom
Tyler, the Creator: Flower Boy
Will Win: DAMN.
Should Win: DAMN.
For once, this seems easy. Kendrick had the best and arguably the biggest rap album of the year. If Grammy voters somehow fail to see that, the silver lining is that all of these albums are good.
Best Alternative Music Album
Arcade Fire: Everything Now
Gorillaz: Humanz
LCD Soundsystem: American Dream
Father John Misty: Pure Comedy
The National: Sleep Well Beast
Will Win: American Dream
Should Win: American Dream
Of whatever seems to count as “alternative” these days, LCD Soundsystem’s post-breakup return was the most consistently rewarding. While Arcade Fire’s successful Grammy history could help them, Everything Now may have been disappointing enough to counteract any home field advantage. Meanwhile, albums have never been where Damon Albarn’s ever-adventurous Gorillaz project shines most brightly. That leaves a few different shades of self-conscious, aging hipster musings. Here’s figuring Grammy voters will go for LCD’s David Bowie-inspired sweep over Father John Misty’s meta folk ballads and the National’s somber electronic soundscapes, though the latter has an outside chance.
Best Rock Album
Mastodon: Emperor of Sand
Metallica: Hardwired... to Self-Destruct
Nothing More: The Stories We Tell Ourselves
Queens of the Stone Age: Villains
The War on Drugs: A Deeper Understanding
Will Win: Hardwired... to Self-Destruct
Should Win: A Deeper Understanding
Rock’s decline as a cultural force goes beyond the Grammys, but it’s telling that none of these records are up for Album of the Year. Out of them all, James Hetfield & co. have eight Grammy wins already and seem to perform at the awards practically every year, a perpetual foil to pop stars. In a field with no more consensus frontrunner, Metallica’s past achievements could be enough for the trophy. Anyway, it’s unclear why the War on Drugs would be here and not in Alternative—or, if they’re here, why not the National?—A Deeper Understanding is as majestic as it is meticulous.
Best Urban Contemporary Album
6LACK: Free 6LACK
Childish Gambino: “Awaken, My Love!”
Khalid: American Teen
SZA: CTRL
The Weeknd: Starboy
Will Win: “Awaken, My Love!”
Should Win: CTRL
Childish Gambino’s is the only record from this list that’s also up for AOTY, so it stands to reason that *“Awaken, My Love!” *is the frontrunner. But for the same reasons SZA merits Best New Artist, her Ctrl stands out as the best of this batch.
Best Pop Vocal Album
Coldplay: Kaleidoscope EP
Lana Del Rey: Lust for Life
Imagine Dragons: Evolve
Kesha: Rainbow
Lady Gaga: Joanne
Ed Sheeran: ÷
Will Win: ÷
Should Win: Lust for Life
You can keep Ed “maybe this year isn’t my year” Sheeran out of the Big Four, but you probably can’t shut the year’s most popular album out of winning a Grammy altogether. Too bad. Lana Del Rey’s confident, catchy, and delightfully warped Lust for Life was the best pop effort on this list.
Producer of the Year, Non-Classical
Calvin Harris
Greg Kurstin
Blake Mills
No I.D.
The Stereotypes
Will Win: Greg Kurstin
Should Win: Blake Mills
The man to beat may be Greg Kurstin, who took home four Grammys last year, including Producer of the Year. You can’t produce Adele every year, but his body of work this time—Kendrick, Beck, Halsey, Foo Fighters, Liam Gallagher—offers something for every Grammy voter. But the most impressive pieces of production included here were the two pairings of one producer and one artist with an indomitable vision: No I.D.’s soulful intimacy for JAY-Z’s 4:44, and Blake Mills’ cinematic intricacy across Perfume Genius’ No Shape. Give it to Mills for head-spinning originality, in a squeaker.
Best Music Video
Beck: “Up All Night”
Jain: “Makeba”
JAY-Z: “The Story of O.J.”
Kendrick Lamar: “HUMBLE.”
Logic: “1-800-273-8255” [ft. Alessia Cara and Khalid]
Will Win: “HUMBLE.”
Should Win: “HUMBLE.”
There’s a strong argument to be made for Jay’s animated “The Story of O.J.” video, with its references to the racist cartoons of the past. And it would be insanely fun if Jain, a globe-trotting singer brought to prominence a few years ago by Jaden Smith, could capture the prize with her inventive, South Africa-shot video for 2016’s “Makeba.” But “HUMBLE.” already won top honors at the VMAs, and the dazzling video’s high-concept bravado is nothing if not earned. If Lamar wins this award, presented during the pre-show ceremony, the evening’s expectations for DAMN. will only mount.
