Grammy predictions: Who will win Sunday's showdown with Beyoncé and Adele, and who should?
Will this year’s 65th annual Grammy Awards spotlight Adele vs. Beyoncé part deux?
Will Harry Styles swoop in and grab a little love for “Harry’s House”?
Will Kendrick Lamar benefit from a series of split votes?
And, most important, will ABBA win its inaugural Grammy, 40 years after their disco-defining peak?
The last one is a confident no, given the competition the Swedes face in the coveted album of the year category. (Also, really, Grammys, you wait until now to nominate them? We’d argue “Dancing Queen” and “Waterloo” should have won all of the Grammys in the ‘70s.)
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But as ridiculous as a smattering of the nominees is for the ceremony – DJ Khaled hardly belongs on the radio, never mind in a prestigious lineup for a trophy – there remains a refreshing scope of diversity, with Bad Bunny, Lizzo and Steve Lacy in line for possible kudos as well.
We’ll learn the victors Sunday when the Grammys, hosted for the third time by Trevor Noah, air live on CBS and Paramount+ (8 p.m. ET/5 PT) from the Crypto.com Arena, formerly the Staples Center, in Los Angeles.
Here are our predictions in the top categories.
Who will win album of the year?
"Un Verano Sin Ti," Bad Bunny.
"Good Morning Gorgeous" (Deluxe), Mary J. Blige.
"In These Silent Days," Brandi Carlile.
"Music of the Spheres," Coldplay.
"Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers," Kendrick Lamar.
"Harry's House," Harry Styles.
Who will win: Beyoncé, “Renaissance.”
Who should win: Beyoncé, “Renaissance.”
While history would be made if Bad Bunny snuck in with a win for the first all-Spanish language album nominated in the top category, this one is a three-way tug of war among Beyoncé, Adele and Styles.
“Harry’s House” dazzled with its explorative musical zigzags and heartfelt lyrics, while Adele’s “30,” released too late in 2021 to vie in last year’s awards, bled from her emotional wounds. But Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” is rightfully being hailed as the benchmark in a career already studded with greatness. It’s a musical stew of hip-hop, soul and dancehall (and a well-placed nod to Donna Summer) that unabashedly celebrates hedonism, sex and self-worth.
Grammy voters will also see this as an opportunity to repent for bestowing the album of the year award to Adele’s “25” over Bey’s “Lemonade” five years ago. Not that Adele wasn’t deserving, but even the British songbird herself proclaimed “Lemonade” the album of the year.
Who will win record of the year?
"Don't Shut Me Down," ABBA.
"Easy on Me," Adele.
"Break My Soul," Beyoncé.
"Good Morning Gorgeous," Mary J. Blige.
"You and Me on the Rock," Brandi Carlile featuring Lucius.
"Woman," Doja Cat.
"Bad Habit," Steve Lacy.
"The Heart Part 5," Kendrick Lamar.
"About Damn Time," Lizzo.
"As It Was," Harry Styles.
Who will win: Harry Styles, “As It Was.”
Who should win: Harry Styles, “As It Was.”
So much of his “Harry’s House” album is award-worthy – from the quirky pop and funky horns of “Music for a Sushi Restaurant” to the romantic soulful strut of “Late Night Talking.”
But “As It Was” is a career-defining song, a whoosh of synthesizers that cushion Styles’ pensiveness before a glorious key change and a sprinkle of tubular bells lift the mood from contemplative to bliss.
Who will win song of the year (goes to songwriter)?
"abcdefu" (Sara Davis, Gayle and Dave Pittenger, performed by Gayle).
"About Damn Time" (Melissa “Lizzo” Jefferson, Eric Frederic, Blake Slatkin and Theron Makiel Thomas, performed by Lizzo).
"All Too Well (10 Minute Version)" (Liz Rose and Taylor Swift, performed by Swift).
"As It Was" (Tyler Johnson, Kid Harpoon and Harry Styles, performed by Styles).
"Bad Habit" (Matthew Castellanos, Brittany Fousheé, Diana Gordon, John Carroll Kirby and Steve Lacy, performed by Lacy).
"Break My Soul" (Beyoncé, S. Carter, Terius "The-Dream" Gesteelde-Diamant and Christopher A. Stewart, performed by Beyoncé).
"Easy on Me" (Adele Adkins and Greg Kurstin, performed by Adele).
"God Did" (Tarik Azzouz, E. Blackmon, Khaled Khaled, F. LeBlanc, Shawn Carter, John Stephens, Dwayne Carter, William Roberts and Nicholas Warwar, performed by DJ Khaled featuring Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend and Fridayy).
"The Heart Part 5" (Jake Kosich, Johnny Kosich, Kendrick Lamar and Matt Schaeffer, performed by Lamar).
"Just Like That" (Bonnie Raitt, performed by Raitt).
Who will win: Adele, “Easy on Me.”
Who should win: Taylor Swift, “All Too Well (10 Minute Version).”
That Swift, one of the preeminent songwriters of her generation, has never tallied a song of the year award among her 11 Grammys, is shameful. Even though this “All Too Well” is technically an extended version of the five-minute take on her 2012 “Red” album (rerecorded and rereleased in 2021), the additions only add to its lyrical mastery.
But Adele’s “Easy on Me,” irritating as it may be as she eschews self-blame and begs for pity, possesses a sublime piano opening and an undeniably gorgeous melody. The simplicity of the song makes it a champion.
Who will win best new artist?
DOMi & JD Beck.
Who will win: Måneskin.
Who should win: Måneskin.
Unlike most years, when at least one nominee is the clear breakout (hi, Olivia Rodrigo), this year’s mega-list of hopefuls is stylistically varied with hip-hop (Latto), jazz (Samara Joy), indie Britpop (Wet Leg) and bluegrass (Molly Tuttle) all represented.
But of the 10 nominees, only Italy’s Måneskin stormed through 2022 with unquantifiable verve, swag and yes, talent. They resurrected rock in the mainstream with summer guitar cruncher “Supermodel,” headlined Rome’s Circus Maximus for 70,000 fans and converted more listeners with blistering sets at Coachella and multiple Lollapaloozas. The latter half of the year, the band embarked on a sold-out tour of large clubs and theaters, unleashing their joyful rock riffs on any reluctant converts.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Grammy predictions 2023 ceremony with Beyonce, Adele, Harry Styles