Grammy Predictions: Taylor Swift, SZA and Olivia Rodrigo Likely to Battle for Album of the Year

Who will be the anti-hero of the 2024 Grammys? Well, if that question sounds a little bit rigged, it’s not far from the truth: Taylor Swift enjoys a level of cultural dominance that few other performers have approached (including monopolizing National Football League coverage in recent weeks). Her fall 2022 album “Midnights” isn’t full of obvious swing-for-the-fences smashes like “1989” or seen as more of an art project like “Folklore” (her last two album of the year winners), but it’s got huge hits and a unique, late-night, bringing-the-club-home feel that will appeal to voters who like artists who don’t make the same album twice. Plus, a huge swath of them may have been swayed by seeing the star devote the climactic half-hour of her blockbuster “Eras Tour” set to the project.

Yet the Academy has been fickle about Swift before, so there’s no doubt we still have a contest on our hands. Yes, she’s won album of the year a historic three times (the first being “Fearless” in 2010); with good will for her reaching its apex, why not make it four? But remember how “Reputation” came within one minor nomination of being shut out of nods altogether, and how “Lover” thoroughly underperformed among voters, too, failing to land an album or record of the year nod? (Or how reporters discovered that “Evermore” got an album nod only by a last-minute expansion of nominees from eight to 10?) With that roller coaster as backdrop, it would be wrong to assume the entire Academy has gone Swiftie.

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The competition would seem to come down to just two potential Swift spoilers: SZA and Olivia Rodrigo. With the fact that everyone seems to love “Guts” at least as much as they did “Sour,” who could count it out? After she won best new artist and a couple of pop categories two years ago, there was a lot of sentiment that she was due to score in the top three the next time around — and that time has come. As for SZA, she’s only won one Grammy before (and that, for a feature on a Doja Cat tune), but this may not augur against her. The Grammys love a culture-shifting breakthrough as much as they love an ongoing legacy, and SZA had 2023’s biggest leap, in that regard, with “SOS” becoming the longest-running No. 1 album by a woman this decade, with a tour that made a case that this is SZA’s era, too.

This is the point at which we humbly recall that the last Grammys were widely seen as a battle between Beyonce and Adele… only for Harry Styles to jump in and steal the show. Or that the previous year was dominated by Jon Batiste — as predicted by not a single soul in the universe. The Grammys represent such an anti-monoculture that the nominations never are easily foreseen like the Oscars — not when the Academy will surprise us by overlooking favorites to put a non-superstar like J.P. Saxe or a non-critical-favorite superstar act like Coldplay in top categories. And you do remember the Weeknd and Ed Sheeran’s total shutout years, right? So with proper fear and trembling in mind, here’s a best guess at who’ll be filling the eight slots (scaled down from 10 last year) in the four all-genre categories.

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ALBUM OF THE YEAR 

Eight likelies (in alphabetical order): 

Jon Batiste, “World Music Radio”

Boygenius, “The Record”

Lana Del Rey, “Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd.”

Karol G, “Mañana Será Bonito”

Olivia Rodrigo, “Guts”

Taylor Swift, “Midnights”

SZA, “SOS”

Lainey Wilson, “Bell Bottom Country”

Ten more contenders…: 

Zach Bryan, “Zach Bryan”

Brandy Clark, “Brandy Clark”

Miley Cyrus, “Endless Summer Vacation”

Foo Fighters, “But Here We Are”

Noah Kahan, “Stick Season”

Laufey, “Bewitched”

Metro Boomin, “Heroes and Villains”

Travis Scott, “Utopia”

Ed Sheeran, “Subtract”

Paul Simon, “Seven Psalms”

The list of real contenders for the top prize, come Feb. 4, 2024, seems limited to three — Swift, SZA and Rodrigo. The five remaining slots are essentially wild-cards, given the lack of obvious other front-runners.

Boygenius might be the closest thing to an additional “duh,” even if none of the three members of the indie supergroup have been awash in Grammy wins up till now. (Even the group’s critically feted Phoebe Bridgers went 0 for 4 in 2021.) Few projects got as much across-the-board love as theirs. Del Rey also has no Grammys on her mantle to date, and only got nominated for album of the year once, in 2020 for “Norman Fucking Rockwell,” but critical acclaim for her latest augurs for her at least getting back on the scoreboard this time. Batiste would seem to stand little chance of a fluke sweep repeat, but after picking up 14 nominations and five wins in his last time at bat, it’s illogical to imagine all that love in the room has gone away. (Plus noms for his follow-up would dovetail nicely with the upcoming release of a documentary that will be in contention for Oscars.) Karol G seems likely to follow Bad Bunny’s lead from last year in picking up nods as Latin music’s hottest representative. Lainey Wilson may be a long shot, in representing country — but her nine nominations for the CMAs officially designated her as the current face of award-worthiness in the genre. It’s been eight years since the Grammys nominated a country release for album of the year (Chris Stapleton’s “Traveller”) — if anyone can end that drought, it has to be Wilson, no?

Most Grammy soothsayers just look at the pop charts in winnowing the field, but let’s not forget the Academy’s love for singer-songwriters, and Kahan had the biggest breakthrough there, making the leap from cult artist to headlining bookings for his tour next year at major venues at the Hollywood Bowl. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see some late-inning love bubbling up for 81-year-old Grammy favorite Paul Simon, who won his first trophy 54 years ago.

RECORD OF THE YEAR and SONG OF THE YEAR 

Top eight (in alphabetical order): 

Brandy Clark featuring Brandi Carlile, “Dear Insecurity”

Miley Cyrus, “Flowers”

Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For?”

Karol G featuring Shakira, “TQG”

PinkPantheress & Ice Spice, “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2”

Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire”

Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero”

SZA, “Kill Bill”

You never know…: 

Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything”

Tyler Childers, “In Your Love”

Luke Combs, “Fast Car”

Lana Del Rey, “A&W”

Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red”

Dua Lipa, “Dance the Night”

Noah Kahan, “Dial Drunk”

Lil Durk and J Cole, “All My Life”

Rihanna, “Lift Me Up”

Morgan Wallen, “Last Night”

We’re considering record and song of the year together for purposes of consolidation, and also because of the considerable historical overlap in the categories’ nominees, despite their clear-but-unclear distinction (song is a songwriters’ award; record honors a song’s performance and recording). Suffice it to say that a few picks will only be competitive in one or the other. “Fast Car” will only be eligible via Combs’ remake for record, not song, because Tracy Chapman’s original was in contention decades ago. Ballads, meanwhile, often have a better shot for the song division than record of the year.

“Flowers” is the closest thing to a runaway favorite… but is it possible it will have wilted from nearly a year’s worth of overexposure? Probably not. However, Swift’s truly oddball smash may stand a nearly equal chance of prevailing, rewarding the song’s grandiose self-effacement. Eilish, obviously previously beloved by the Grammys, stands a shot of having her moving “Barbie” theme rewarded by both the Grammys and the Oscars. Then again, if Lady Gaga’s “Shallow” didn’t manage to win record or song of the year while winning the Academy Award, maybe the odds don’t quite favor this one winning across multiple kudocasts, either. Could “Kill Bill” slay, giving SZA her best shot at being a Grammy anti-heroine? It sure could. And everyone else will probably be happy just to be nominated … although it sure would be rewarding to see Karol G and Shakira surprise everyone with a longer-overdue Latin music triumph in a top category.

As much adoration as there is for Rodrigo’s album, “Vampire” was not as ubiquitous as “Drivers License” — the Olivialove is really spread across the entire LP this time — so it’s hard to know if the bloodsucker anthem will contribute to another sweep. It could. Meanwhile, the song category is likely to make room for at least a couple of “statement” songs, or singer/songwriter efforts. Chances for Childers’ “In Your Love” to get a nod are being slept on by many awards predictors, but many voters were stricken by his boldness in crafting a bittersweet story of gay love in miner country. Carlile, a true Academy sweetheart, is off-cycle this year, but could be nominated for several features she had on friends’ records, including one by Tanya Tucker or another that’s getting the big push, a duet with production client Clark. “Dear Insecurity,” an instant tearjerker for almost anyone who hears it, and a strong contender for having the corner on being this year’s adult-leaning underdog.

BEST NEW ARTIST 

Top eight (in alphabetical order): 

Gracie Abrams

Ice Spice

Noah Kahan

Laufey

Peso Pluma

Raye

Jelly Roll

Lainey Wilson

Ten more key contenders: 

Hardy

Coco Jones

Coi Leray

Fifty Fifty

JVKE

Megan Moroney

PinkPantheress

Renee Rapp

The War and Treaty

Bailey Zimmerman

It sure seems as if the award is recent Variety cover subject Ice Spice’s to lose. If the world of everyday Swifties were voting instead of Academy members, it would be a fait accompli — imagine the irresistible visions of Spice and Swift posing with their respective trophies. Far more important is the prospect of rewarding hip-hop after its historic underrepresentation in top categories.

Still, the Academy’s formidable singer-songwriter-friendly bloc could get behind Kahan, who has been rising quickly in the last few months and is high on the radar. Likewise, don’t overlook prospects for Laufey, a 24-year-old Chinese-Icelandic-American upstart whose creation of original Great American Songbook-style pop-jazz material is wildly popular with a young audience and was practically made for the Grammys. In country, Wilson and Jelly Roll could mutually represent in the category in a big way… or could cancel out each other’s votes. (A third and fourth country candidate, Zimmerman and Moroney, are lapping up behind those two — and Hailey Whitters could conceivably slip in past them. It’s rare for country to have a year with so many new artist possibilities.) Peso Pluma’s subject matter may be a little rough for the average Grammy voter, but the sheer force of his quick rise to popularity could be irresistible if the Latin music contingency of the Academy votes in force.

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