Grammy Nomination Predictions: R&B and Hip-Hop

With the 2014 Grammy nominations being announced this Friday, Dec. 5, it’s time to deep-dive into the individual categories and predict who will come out on top. Here’s a look at which urban music stars have a shot this year.

BEST URBAN CONTEMPORARY ALBUM

Beyoncé's first three solo albums won Grammys for Best Contemporary R&B Album, but her fourth album, 4, wasn’t even nominated for Best R&B Album. (The Contemporary category was dropped that year, and all R&B albums competed in one category). Beyoncé will almost certainly get back in voters’ good graces with her eponymous fifth album, which spent its first three weeks at #1. Beyoncé was a double-winner at the BET Awards in June.

If Beyoncé wins in this category, she’ll become the first artist to win four times in R&B album categories. She’s currently tied with Alicia Keys. Each has won three times.

Pharrell Williams's GIRL, which climbed as high as #2, will give Beyoncé a run for its money. Williams became a household name this year, with a #1 smash, four Grammys, an Oscar nomination, and a stint on The Voice. He was also a double-winner at the BET Awards.

Chris Brown's X, which debuted at #2 in September, is also likely to be nominated. His 2011 release F.A.M.E. won as Best R&B Album.

Five albums are battling for the two remaining two slots: Trey Songz's Trigga, August Alsina's Testimony, Jhené Aiko's Sail Out, R. Kelly's Black Panties, and Prince's Art Official Age.

Trigga debuted at #1 in July. Five years ago, Songz’s Ready was nominated for Best Contemporary R&B Album.

Alsina and Aiko were nominated for Best Male and Female R&B/Pop Artist, respectively, at the BET Awards. Both took home trophies in other categories. Alsina won Best New Artist and the Coca-Cola Viewers’ Choice Award. Aiko won the Centric Award.

R. Kelly has been nominated for Grammys for Best R&B Album or Best Contemporary R&B Album three times in the past five years.

P.S.: Justin Bieber's Journals was entered in this category, rather than Best Pop Vocal Album. It has little chance of landing a nomination, but it’s kind of a compliment that the R&B committee accepted the album in urban contemporary rather than kicking it over to pop.

BEST R&B ALBUM

Two R&B legends, Aretha Franklin and Smokey Robinson, are vying for nominations. The Queen of Soul is in the running with Aretha Franklin Sings the Great Diva Classics; Robinson is competing with his duets collection, Smokey & Friends. Both artists have received Lifetime Achievement and Grammy Legend Awards from the Recording Academy, but only Franklin has a Grammy tally (18 awards) befitting her stature. Remarkably, Robinson has won just one Grammy in competition—with or without the Miracles. He took home the prize for his 1987 hit “Just to See Her.”

Love, Marriage & Divorce by Toni Braxton & Babyface is another likely nominee. The two R&B vets have won a combined total of 16 Grammys. Voters will admire the thematic album’s ambition and sense of purpose.

Five albums are battling for the remaining two slots: Aloe Blacc's Lift Your Spirit, Mary J. Blige's A Mary Christmas, Robert Glasper Experiment's Black Radio 2, Ledisi's The Truth, and Kelly Price's Sing Pray Love, Vol. 1: Sing.

Blacc’s album spawned a top 10 hit, “The Man.” Blige won this award eight years ago for The Breakthrough. Her follow-up album, Growing Pains, won for Best Contemporary R&B Album. The Glasper Experiment won in this category two years ago for the initial Black Radio. Ledisi has been nominated here twice in the past five years. Price has been nominated once.

Jennifer Hudson's eponymous debut album won in this category for 2008, but her latest, JHUD, didn’t have the same impact. Also possible: Sharon Jones & The Dap-Kings' Give The People What They Want.

Two albums that were widely seen as duds — Mariah Carey's Me. I Am Mariah… The Elusive Chanteuse and Robin Thicke's Paula — have little chance of being nominated. This just wasn’t Thicke’s year.

BEST RAP ALBUM

Eminem is looking for his sixth win in this category with The Marshall Mathers LP 2. That would extend his lead as the artist who has won the most times since the category was introduced in 1995. (Kanye West is second with four wins.) Eminem’s album spent two weeks at #1 in November 2013 and spawned a #1 single, “The Monster,” a collabo with Rihanna. The original The Marshall Mathers LP won in this category for 2000.

Iggy Azalea's debut album, The New Classic, also stands a good chance here. The album has climbed as high as #3. Azalea would become the fourth female solo artist to be nominated in this category, following Missy “Misdemeanor” Elliott, Eve, and Nicki Minaj. Moreover, Azalea may become the first female solo artist to win in this category. (As a member of Fugees, Lauryn Hill won for 1996’s The Score.)

If either Eminem or Azalea wins Best Rap Album, this will mark the second year in a row that a white artist has taken home this award. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis won earlier this year for The Heist.

ScHoolboy Q's third album, Oxymoron, also has a good chance. The album debuted at #1 in March. He was nominated for Best New Artist at the BET Awards and for Artist to Watch at the VMAs.

Childish Gambino's sophomore album, because the internet, has stirred a lot of buzz and has spawned a substantial chart hit (“V.3005”). ”3005” was nominated for Best Hip-Hop Video at the VMAs.

The Roots, which have been nominated five times in this category without winning, may be back in the running with their 11th studio album, …And Then You Shoot Your Cousin. The Roots’ ongoing role as the house band on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon keeps them in the forefront.

In September, Lecrae's seventh studio album, Anomaly, became the first Christian rap album to reach #1. Two other #1 albums also have a good chance: Rick Ross's sixth studio album, Mastermind, and Wiz Khalifa's fifth studio album, Blacc Hollywood. Ross was nominated in this category two years ago with God Forgives, I Don’t.

Common, who has amassed three nominations in this category without winning, may be back with his 10th studio album, Nobody’s Smiling.

The BET Awards gave a lift to YG's debut album, My Krazy Life; Future's sophomore album, Honest Young Money's third album, Rise of an Empire; and Rich Homie Quan's fourth mixtape, I Promise I Will Never Stop Going In.

Other albums that will rate a look include Jeezy's Seen It All: The Autobiography, Pusha T's My Name is My Name, and Kid Ink's My Own Lane.

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