Grammy predictions: Chris Stapleton, Luke Combs, Zach Bryan among top contenders in country categories

In the country categories at the Grammys, we often get a few surprises. We can never know for sure if they’ll go for a commercial pick, or if they’ll opt for a beloved veteran or underdog favorite. With previous winners ranging from Willie Nelson to The Civil Wars to Taylor Swift, the field is often very eclectic, and so are this year’s nominations.

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Best Country Solo Performance
It’s unlikely that perennial bridesmaid Brandy Clark (“Buried”) wins, especially as she’s a frontrunner in the Americana categories, so voters won’t feel the need to go for her here. And while Dolly Parton (“The Last Thing on My Mind”) is a legend, and it isn’t uncommon for country voters to go for legends covering classics, the competition this year might be just a little too stiff for her to actually go all the way.

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The top three would then be Tyler Childers for “In Your Love,” Luke Combs for “Fast Car” and Chris Stapleton for “White Horse.” “Fast Car” is the biggest hit here by a mile; people loved Combs’s rendition of the Tracy Chapman classic, pushing it to number-two on the Billboard Hot 100. The song also won CMA Awards for both Single and Song of the Year, indicating a lot of love from the country community. Plus, with Combs being well overdue a Grammy at this point, this feels like the perfect opportunity to award him.

Still, the other two songs are very Grammy-friendly. Childers has never won and did phenomenally with nominations, earning five. “In Your Love” is also a ballad, which voters tend to love, and he’d get a lot of support from Americana voters, who can now vote for country awards since those genres were consolidated into a single field this year. Plus, with Childers edging Combs out for a Best Country Album nomination, maybe the tide is turning in his favor. Then there’s Stapleton, who is a country darling and tends to win more often than not. “White Horse” is also one of his biggest hits ever, peaking at number-12 on the Hot 100.

I will play it safe and go with Stapleton here, although my gut is telling me there might be a win for Childers somewhere, especially since they can award Stapleton next year when the rest of his album is eligible anyway. Combs is certainly still in the running, but the lack of support in other categories might indicate that voters are not feeling him as much as other awards bodies.

Will win: Chris Stapleton, “White Horse”
Could win: Luke Combs, “Fast Car”
Dark horse: Tyler Childers, “In Your Love”

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Best Country Duo/Group Performance
This category has a clear frontrunner: Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves’s “I Remember Everything.” The acclaimed collaboration earned both stars their first number-one hit in the US, debuting atop the Hot 100. Bryan has had an amazing year overall with the success of his self-titled album, which is currently the frontrunner for Best Country Album. Plus, “I Remember Everything” is the only song in this category that’s also nominated for Best Country Song, indicating just how strong it is. It also helps that Musgraves is a big Grammy favorite, having previously won Album of the Year for “Golden Hour,” further helping this song’s chances.

If anyone were to beat Bryan and Musgraves, it might be the legendary combo of Vince Gill and Paul Franklin. Country voters aren’t shy about awarding veterans over big hits; in fact, Gill himself won Best Country Solo Performance with a song most people weren’t familiar with, “When My Amy Prays,” just a few years ago in 2021. As such, “Kissing Your Picture (Is So Cold)” could sweep in unexpectedly.

There’s also Jelly Roll and Lainey Wilson’s “Save Me.” The song is the second biggest hit here, and the biggest on country radio. On top of that, Jelly Roll and Wilson are both having an amazing year and have won big prizes at the country industry award shows. So if voters are perhaps unsatisfied with how little radio traction Bryan and Musgraves have, they might go with “Save Me” instead. Still, though, I wouldn’t overthink it; “I Remember Everything” losing would be one of the biggest shockers of the night.

Will win: Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything”
Could win: Vince Gill and Paul Franklin, “Kissing Your Picture (Is So Cold)”
Dark horse: Jelly Roll with Lainey Wilson, “Save Me”

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