Grammy Burning Questions: Where Did Taylor Swift, SZA, Olivia Rodrigo and More Land on the First Ballot?
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It’s that time of year again, when the Recording Academy sends out its massive first batch of submissions for the annual Grammy Awards.
As genre lines continue to blur in popular music and artists strategize about how to best increase their odds at nominations, the 2024 Grammys are shaping up to be another free-for-all when it comes to who makes the final cut. Each year, fans speculate over where their favorite musicians will land, either in their predicted or surprise categories. Just like last year, when Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” skirted the album categories for pop and R&B, and instead submitted for dance/electronic album where it won.
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The 2024 submissions elicit the same sort of uncertainty when it comes to who is placed where. Did Taylor Swift match last year’s 13 submissions? Is SZA going to finally get the Grammy respect she deserves? Will Ice Spice be the breakout star of the show? Just how many songs were submitted from “Barbie: The Album?” Are Drake and The Weeknd still withholding their music from nomination?
With first-round voting scheduled to wrap on October 20, Variety takes a look at the ballot to answer some key questions about this year’s submissions.
Q: First and foremost: Are there any Taylor curveballs?
A: Not really. Her submissions aren’t over-the-top this year. “Midnights” is, expectedly, up for album of the year and best pop vocal album, while “Anti-Hero” is long-listed for record of the year, song of the year, pop solo performance and music video. Only the remix to “Karma” featuring Ice Spice appears elsewhere, in the category for pop duo/group performance.
Q: Will “Barbie: The Album” have the voting committee tickled pink?
A: If the ballot is any indication, likely yes. There are at least 25 submissions pertaining to “Barbie: The Album”—including Mark Ronson and Andrew Watt’s bids for producer of the year (non-classical)—which isn’t surprising given that Barbie fever is still red-hot months after the soundtrack’s release. In song of the year and record of the year, there are five submissions: Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night,” Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice’s “Barbie World,” Ava Max’s “Choose Your Fighter,” Ryan Gosling’s “I’m Just Ken,” and Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For?” It feels like a see-what-sticks approach, as the genre diversity of candidates is far-reaching. It’s also worth noting that several artists who appear on the soundtrack—Sam Smith, Karol G, Dominic Fike, Fifty Fifty, and Lizzo—opted to submit songs to top categories from their projects in place of their “Barbie” contributions. But further down the ballot, “Barbie” songs are aplenty: five submissions in both pop solo performance and song written for visual media; a bid for score soundtrack; and, of course, compilation soundtrack for visual media. Fifty Fifty’s “Barbie Dreams” featuring Kaliii appears in pop duo/group performance, while “Barbie World” contends in the rap categories. It’s an exhaustive amount of placements, as if we haven’t had—er—Kenough of the soundtrack at this point.
Q: Of the major artists who are predicted to get major nominations, who stands a chance of ultimately leading the nominations pack because they were rendered eligible in a lot of different categories?
A: SZA and Jon Batiste both could hoard a lot of nominations because of that factor. SZA has submissions in nine different genre categories beyond the top three, including progressive R&B album, traditional R&B performance, R&B song, rap performance, pop solo performance and pop duo performance (for a song with Phoebe Bridgers). You can’t spread the wealth across a lot more styles than that, right? But wait—Batiste says to SZA, “Hold my beer.” He successfully submitted (beyond the obvious top categories) in at least 13 genre or lesser categories, including African performance, jazz performance, dance electronic performance, American roots performance, pop solo performance, pop duo/group performance, R&B performance, traditional R&B performance, and more.
Q: Who are some of the other artists who also split themselves across different genres?
A: Olivia Rodrigo is a great example: She submitted in both pop and rock categories, the latter for her song “Ballad of a Home Schooled Girl.” Some others: Jason Isbell submitted different songs in rock, Americana and American roots categories. In fact, he put in for six different songs from his “Weathervanes” albums, in different divisions. Brandy Clark went with one song (“Dear Insecurity”) for Americana and another (“Buried”) for country. Hozier submitted different songs for rock and pop. Willie Nelson has two separate albums submitted, one for country and one for bluegrass. (If you guessed that his album “Bluegrass” is in the latter, bingo.) Boygenius submitted “Not Strong Enough” in two rock categories—as well as record and song of the year—but went with “Cool About It” for best alternative performance.
Q: Will Ice Spice be the breakout star of the 2024 Grammys?
A: The Bronx rapper (and Variety cover star) has been unstoppable ever since she went viral with her August 2022 hit “Munch (Feelin’ U).” From follow-up singles “In Ha Mood” and “Deli” to star guest turns on tracks from Taylor Swift and PinkPantheress (not to mention “Barbie World,” her collaboration with Nicki Minaj), Spice appears up and down the ballot with 15 separate submissions including best new artist, where she has a good shot at making the final nominees. “In Ha Mood” is the solo focus track, appearing in best rap performance, song of the year, record of the year, best rap song, and best music video. The deluxe version of her debut “Like..?” shows up in best rap album. “Barbie World” and “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2” with PinkPantheress are also up for the song and record of the year, with the former seeking nomination in the rap and film categories. Her “Karma” remix with Swift sits in best pop duo/group performance. Bonus points go to Spice’s right-hand man RiotUSA, who was submitted for producer of the year (non-classical).
Q: Speaking of, where did PinkPantheress land?
A: Fans of the U.K. star may have expected her to appear in the alternative category, but no such luck. Instead, her chart-topping “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2” doesn’t show up anywhere other than song and record of the year, as well as pop duo/group performance. But, she’s a strong potential nominee for best new artist where she’s submitted.
Q: Will the voting committee give Nicki Minaj her first nomination since 2016?
A: Minaj has been nominated 10 times since 2011 and hasn’t yet won. In 2022, she was vocal about her gripe with the Grammys over her hit “Super Freaky Girl” getting submitted in the pop over rap categories, claiming it gave the song “less of a chance to win.” For 2024, the voting committee appears to be splitting the difference. As a solo artist, her single “Last Time I Saw You” is slotted in the pop solo performance as well as song and record of the year, while her Lumidee-sampling “Ruby Red da Sleeze” is vying for nominations in rap song and rap performance. Her features on Kim Petras’ “Alone,” Sexyy Red’s “Pound Town 2,” Lil Uzi Vert’s “Endless Fashion,” YoungBoy Never Broke Again’s “WTF,” Young Thug’s “Money” and Maluma & Myriam Fares’ “Tukoh Taka” has her in categories across the board, while “Barbie World” is submitted in pretty much every category it could fit. Could this be her year? There’s a lot of potential.
Q: Has Drake had a Grammys change of heart?
A: Maybe? Drake has had a checkered history with the Grammys, criticizing them publicly and withdrawing his rap nominations in 2022. And, his seventh album “Honestly, Nevermind” was nowhere to be found on the ballot for the awards last year. But it looks as though he—or, at least, someone on his behalf—submitted for “Her Loss,” his collaborative album with 21 Savage that was released in November 2022. The effort was submitted for album of the year and rap album, while its single “Rich Flex” appears in the long lists for rap performance, rap song, record of the year, and song of the year. Elsewhere, “Spin Bout U” is in contention for melodic rap performance. But, like in years past, Drake is also submitted as a feature on a few records—last year, he even won a trophy for his spot on Future’s “Wait For U” in melodic rap performance. For 2024, he’s submitted as part of Travis Scott’s “Meltdown” and Young Thug’s “Oh U Went” in a variety of spots spanning record and song of the year to the rap categories.
Q: Did The Weeknd finally bury his grudge with the Grammys for snubbing him in the past?
A: Maybe, but unlikely. He appears in several categories for features on Metro Boomin’s “Creepin,” Travis Scott’s “K-Pop” and Diddy’s “Another One of Me,” all probably submitted on the title artists’ behalf. His chart-topping remix of “Die for You” with Ariana Grande is nowhere to be found, as are his songs from “The Idol,” but he’s up for a few awards in the music/film categories. His “Avatar 2” single “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” is in song written for visual media and his concert flick “Live at SoFi Stadium” is in music film. The studios may have submitted for him.
Q: How did Miguel manage to sneak in submissions for his now-viral 2010 single “Sure Thing”?
A: With a live version, of course! “Sure Thing” got a second life after TikTok kicked the track into virality, reviving the long-dormant hit and sending it up to No. 11 on the Billboard Hot 100 (where it initially peaked at 36 back in 2011). The live version came in just under the wire, releasing last month to streaming platforms, and the track was submitted for record of the year and pop solo performance. It’s not out of the question that it could get nominated, since Latto was nominated last year for a live version of “Big Energy” in melodic rap performance.
Q: Does the newly-minted pop dance recording category reconcile the Grammy’s electronic music issue?
A: Announced in June, this new category attempts to address the long-pollinating crossover between the dance/electronic and pop worlds. Historically, the Grammys have pitted traditional pop stars with club-ready songs against traditional electronic musicians in its dance/electronic recording category. It brewed controversy when artists like Britney Spears, Justin Timberlake, and Beyoncé bested institutional electronic acts like Basement Jaxx, The Chemical Brothers, and Bonobo. This year, the genre lines are split, well, somewhat evenly. Of the 107 submissions for pop dance recording, it’s the type of stuff you’d expect to see nestled in top 40 programming (even if they didn’t receive airplay): Kylie Minogue’s “Padam Padam”; David Guetta, Anne-Marie and Coi Leray’s “Baby Don’t Hurt Me”; Adam Lambert’s Sylvester cover of “You Make Me Feel (Mighty Real)” featuring Sigala. The dance/electronic recording category is much more defined. Skrillex, Fred Again.. and Flowdan’s “Rumble” makes the list, and is a likely nominee given its ubiquity this year (not to mention that Skrillex has won in this category three times). Jayda G and Honey Dijon, who both released excellent albums over the past year, are accounted for here, as are familiars like Disclosure, Kaskade, deadmau5, and Swedish House Mafia. Does it fix the problem at hand? Not exactly, as there is still some questionable delegation. But that could easily be wiped away when the final list of nominees gets decided.
Q: How many submissions were made in the brand-new African music performance category?
A: In the freshly minted category, there were 122 submissions, including multiples from artists like Malika Zarra, Eddy Kenzo and Rema. The list covers a wide array of artists including Adekunle Gold, Fireboy DML, Libianca, Spinall, Uncle Waffles, and Tyla, whose viral single “Water” is eligible.
Q: How many writers submitted themselves for the songwriter of the year (non-classical) award? More than last year’s 62, when the inaugural award was given?
A: Actually, it was slightly fewer who entered that race this year: 58.
Q: Did Ghostwriter actually go through with submitting his AI single featuring Drake and The Weeknd?
A: Not exactly, but yes. Anonymous producer Ghostwriter rattled the industry by using artificial intelligence to mimic Drake and The Weeknd’s voices on his song “Heart on My Sleeve,” bringing up issues around consent and monetization in adopting an artist’s likeness. Recording Academy CEO Harvey Mason Jr. said it was Grammy-eligible because a human wrote it, and then three days later walked it back. “Heart on My Sleeve” was taken down from streaming services. But according to the voting ballot, a different version of “Heart on My Sleeve” without AI voice filters that they uploaded to DSPs just in the nick of time for the Grammy’s cutoff period is eligible for song of the year and rap song.
Q: The songwriter of the year award is supposed to be limited only to writers who either are not recording artists or who make records more as a sideline to their primary writing identity. So does that mean it doesn’t include any household names?
A: For the most part. But the country-rock artist Hardy is in there, under his full name Michael Hardy, which is a bit surprising because he has a highly successful career going as a recording artist and tour headliner right now. His artist discography includes three platinum or multi-platinum singles, and songs that have gone No. 1 in both the country and hard rock formats. But the Recording Academy has apparently decided he’s still a writer-for-hire, first and foremost.
Q: Country superstar Luke Combs’ best shot may be for “Fast Car,” but that can’t be submitted for songwriter awards, since it’s a Tracy Chapman oldie. Does he have a backup plan?
A: Yep, although he submitted the Chapman cover for record of the year, he put in his own self-penned hit “Love You Anyway” for song of the year and a couple of country categories.
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