How good are the SAG Awards at predicting the 4 acting winners at the Oscars?

Paul Sheehan
·3 min read
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Odds are that three of the four individual film winners at the SAG Awards on February 24 will be collecting Oscars two weeks later. Over the past 29 years, 87 of the 116 Academy Awards winners in the four acting races had first collected SAG Awards. That success rate of 75% makes this precursor prize a key bellwether to follow when making your 2024 Oscar predictions.

In each of the last two years, all four SAG champs repeated at the Oscars. In 2023, leads Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) and Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)  plus “Everything” featured performers Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Huy Quan all had a chance to practice their Oscar acceptance speeches at these guild kudos. Likewise in 2022 for leads Will Smith (“King Richard”) and Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) plus supporting players Troy Kotsur (“CODA”) and Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”).

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But be warned: a perfect record of 4 for 4 has occurred just 10 times. Historically, the likeliest outcome is that three of the winners at the SAG Awards will repeat at the Oscars; that has happened 11 years in the past 29 years. The guild has batted .500 on five occasions and been off the mark in three of the four races another three. It has never been completely wrong.

2024 Screen Actors Guild Awards: Full Winners List (UPDATING LIVE)

Here’s the breakdown of the rate of success in each of the four categories.

Best Actor: 23 of the SAG winners went on to win Oscars (plus Benicio del Toro who prevailed in supporting at Oscars for “Traffic”). In 2021, Chadwick Boseman prevailed here for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” but the late actor lost at the Oscars to Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”). Prior to that there had been three repeat winners in a row: Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”), Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) and Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”). In 2017, Denzel Washington had ended a 12-year streak when he won at SAG for “Fences” but lost at the Oscars to Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”).

Best Actress: 21 of the SAG winners went on to victory at the Academy Awards. In 2021, Viola Davis won with the guild for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” but lost at the Oscars to Frances McDormand (“Nomadland). Previously McDormand had been the last of previous six SAG champs in a row to pull off this double act when she won in 2018 for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

Best Supporting Actor: 20 of the SAG choices also added an Oscar to their mantle, including 2021’s dual victor Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Messiah”).

Best Supporting Actress: 21 of the SAG choices were also those of the academy (plus Kate Winslet who won in lead at Oscars for “The Reader”). In 2021, Youn Yuh-jung (“Minari”) prevailed here first before winning at the Oscars.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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