Final Golden Globes Predictions: Best Motion Picture (Drama) – ‘Nomadland’ Gets the Slight Edge Over ‘Chicago 7’

Clayton Davis
·7 min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE

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DRAFT>>>PRE SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON

2021 GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS:
BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

UPDATED: Feb. 24, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: The Golden Globes nominations were announced on Feb. 3, with Netflix’s “Mank” from David Fincher leading with six nods. As the ceremony approaches on Feb. 28, the categories have been analyzed to determine what they mean for the awards season. Several nominees have already made history, but with final voting taking place and due back to Ernst & Young’s accounting firm by Feb. 23, many films and performances could be record-breakers or trendsetters if they are selected as winners. Read all the records that could be set with each set of nominees for the Globes on Variety. With just under 30 days until the Oscar nominations, set to be announced on March 15, the race continues to take shape, possibly presenting more twists and turns over the next few weeks.

In terms of history, if the prediction is correct, Zhao would be the first Asian woman producer to win best picture drama and be the first film directed by a woman to win best picture drama. “Nomadland” star Frances McDormand is already the second woman to be nominated for producing and acting in the drama category. Still, she would be the first to win, one or both.

PRECURSORS LEADER: “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)

    PRODUCERS: Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao
    DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao
    SYNOPSIS: After losing everything in the Great Recession, an old woman embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad.
    STARRING: Frances McDormand, David Strathairn, Linda May, Swankie, Bob Wells

  2. "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)

    PRODUCERS: Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson
    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
    STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Frank Langella, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong

  3. "Promising Young Woman" (Focus Features)

    PRODUCERS: Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Josey McNamara, Ashley Fox
    DIRECTOR: Emerald Fennell
    SYNOPSIS: A young woman, traumatized by a tragic event in her past, seeks out vengeance against those who cross her path.
    STARRING: Carey Mulligan, Bo Burnham, Laverne Cox, Molly Shannon, Clancy Brown, Jennifer Coolidge, Max Greenfield, Alison Brie, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Connie Britton, Chris Lowell, Adam Brody, Sam Richardson

  4. "Mank" (Netflix)

    PRODUCERS: Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski
    DIRECTOR: David Fincher
    SYNOPSIS: 1930s Hollywood is re-evaluated through the eyes of scathing social critic and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he races to finish the screenplay of Citizen Kane for Orson Welles.
    STARRING: Tom Burke, Lily Collins, Joseph Cross, Charles Dance, Monika Gossman, Ferdinand Kingsley, Jamie McShane, Tuppence Middleton, Toby Leonard Moore, Gary Oldman, Tom Pelphrey, Amanda Seyfried, Sam Troughton

  5. "The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)

    PRODUCERS: Philippe Carcassonne, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt
    DIRECTOR: Florian Zeller
    SYNOPSIS: A man refuses all assistance from his daughter as he ages. As he tries to make sense of his changing circumstances, he begins to doubt his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his reality.
    STARRING: Olivia Colman, Mark Gatiss, Anthony Hopkins, Imogen Poots, Rufus Sewell, Olivia Williams

MISSES & SNUBS:

  • "Ammonite" (Neon)

  • "Cherry" (Apple TV Plus)

  • "Da 5 Bloods" (Netflix)

  • "First Cow" (A24)

  • "I'm Thinking of Ending Things" (Netflix)

  • "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)

  • "The Little Things" (Warner Bros.)

  • "Malcolm & Marie" (Netflix)

  • "The Mauritanian" (STXfilms)

  • "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)

  • "The Midnight Sky" (Netflix)

  • "The Nest" (IFC Films)

  • "News of the World" (Universal Pictures)

  • "Never Rarely Sometimes Always" (Focus Features)

  • "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)

  • "Pieces of a Woman" (Netflix)

  • "Promising Young Woman" (Focus Features)

  • "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)

  • "Tenet" (Warner Bros.)

  • "The United States vs. Billie Holiday" (Hulu)

  • "The White Tiger" (Netflix)

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.

About the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.

  • The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.

About the SAG Awards

The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”

  • The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021

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