Golden Globes Film Nominations Analysis: As ‘Barbenheimer’ Crushes The Field, Summer Blockbusters Take Triumphs To Awards Season
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Was the Oscar race defined all the way back in July?
This morning’s predictable Golden Globe nominations provided few surprises as far as the motion pictures contenders go but also give credence to my theory that the cinematic story of the year with the so-called “Barbenheimer” summer box office phenomenon also could become the story of Oscar season.
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With a record nine mentions for Barbie and eight for Oppenheimer, these two very different but original movies easily led all comers and were nominated in pretty much every single category you might expect, with the snub of Barbie’s America Ferrera perhaps the only glaring omission for either one. The rivalry is likely to carry on to the Globes ceremony January 7, and both could walk away with Best Motion Picture awards since the Globes splits those prizes between Drama and Comedy/Musical. They are, however, going head to head for Screenplay (the Globes makes no distinction between originals and adaptations), Director (Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan) and the new money category of “Cinematic Box Office Achievement” (more on that in a moment), so should one of them sweep those, a clear
Oscar front-runner would emerge.
Actually since three of Barbie’s nominations come in the Best Song category, Oppenheimer has the edge here, being named in the most categories of any 2023 contender with eight to Barbie‘s seven.
Efforts to truly internationalize and legitimize the membership of the formerly named Hollywood Foreign Press Association seem to have paid off as both Neon’s Anatomy of a Fall and A24’s The Zone of Interest landed nominations in Best Motion Picture Drama and Best Motion Picture Non-English Language — a feat not allowed under the old Globes rules but now possible. Interestingly, about half (or so it felt) of Anatomy’s dialogue is in English.
The two pics just faced off in this weekend’s European Film Awards, with Anatomy sweeping.
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That fact might have moved France to submit the Globes-snubbed The Taste of Things for the Best International Feature Film Oscar instead of Cannes Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall, but the latter clearly is making up for it so far this season, with its biggest showing coming here at the Globes. These dual nominations for Anatomy and Zone also reinforce the influence of Cannes awards, where they finished one-two in May.
Of the other significant Picture nominees, both Apple Original Film’s Killers of the Flower Moon (another Cannes premiere) and Searchlight’s Venice Golden Lion winner Poor Things had exceptional showings, both with seven nominations and in all key categories indicating strength. These films would seem to pose the biggest threat to “Barbenheimer’s” juggernaut and the two foreign films as Yorgas Lathimos’ Poor Things will compete in Musical/Comedy against Barbie and Martin Scorsese’s NYFCC and NBR winner Killers of The Flower Moon is up against Oppenheimer for the coveted Motion Picture Drama crown.
The little engine that could, however, just might turn out to be Sundance darling Past Lives — another triumph for A24, which also has Zone of Interest — which has significant nominations for Motion Picture Drama, Director Celine Song, Screenplay and star Greta Lee. With the heavily Fipresci-infused new added Globes voter pool (about 200 new members or so), the performance of this small but acclaimed human drama (partially in Korean language) will be one to watch.
Bradley Cooper’s popularity with Globes voters is intact. He could become the first person to win two Globes for Director and Actor (Drama) for Maestro, which nailed four nominations overall including one for Carey Mulligan and Best Motion Picture Drama (but missing out for its Screenplay). It contributed to Netflix’s impressive lead showing in movies with 13 nominations overall, thanks mainly to multiple nominees Maestro, May December, Rustin and Nyad.
As for the diversity results today — an issue that got the Globes and the former HFPA into hot water internally and externally — five Black actors including The Holdover’s Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Rustin’s Colman Domingo, American Fiction’s Jeffrey Wright, and The Color Purple’s Fantasia Barrino and Danielle Brooks were nominated in the movie categories. But Rustin and The Color Purple failed to make the cut in either Best Picture category. No Latinos were nominated in movies at all, even though Ferrera (Barbie, Dumb Money) and Gael Garcia Bernal (Cassandro) had robust campaigns behind them, to name two.
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As for the newly created Cinematic And Box Office Achievement award, it appears to have been created in order to guarantee some popular movies will get recognition. But with Barbie and Oppenheimer so dominant across the board, plus multiple nominations for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse and The Super Mario Bros Movie, this is one year it doesn’t seem necessary. With the nomination for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, however, it might be another opportunity to get Swift into the Beverly Hilton Ballroom after four previous Best Song nominations — and four losses in 2012, 2013, 2019 and last year. Could Swifties finally see their queen reign supreme with a box office crown?
Perhaps considering some past Globes nomination mornings I have been through, the biggest surprise is that there were no real surprises on a list that arguably, by critical consensus, represents the best of cinema in 2023. And that certainly has not always been the case with this group’s troubled past.
The Golden Globes is now fully operational again with a new TV/streaming deal airing with CBS and Paramount + for January 7 (produced by awards show mavens Glenn Weiss and Ricky Kirschner, who did last year’s Oscars and Tonys), a defunct HFPA replaced by new leaders (including Deadline parent PMC and their Dick Clark Productions) and enhanced membership. With a threatened hotel workers strike averted, and after pandemics and scandals and past embarrassing nominations (Sia’s Music, anyone?) seemingly behind it for now, the Golden Globes looks like it could get its mojo (and ratings) back. If it doesn’t, it would be hard to blame this particularly worthy and impressive lineup of nominated films in the mix as it turns 81 this year. Let’s see how it all plays out.
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