After the Gold Rush, We Have Three Frontrunners for the 2024 Academy Awards

In the wake of the Golden Globes and the guild noms, only “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer,” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” are ticking every pre-Oscar box: Major Globes awards, making the DGA list, and receiving the SAG Ensemble nod.

While “The Holdovers” director Alexander Payne can cheer his inclusion as a DGA nominee, the comedy three-hander did not land a SAG Ensemble slot, even if Globe winners Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph got SAG nominations. For the DGA, popular hit “The Holdovers” was a predictable choice; voters include assistant directors and production managers who often lean more mainstream than the Oscars. Last year, Joseph Kosinski landed a DGA nod for “Top Gun: Maverick,” while the Oscar nomination went to “Triangle of Sadness” director Ruben Ostlund. Yorgos Lanthimos made this year’s DGA list, along with Martin Scorsese, Christopher Nolan, and Greta Gerwig.

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In addition to his SAG nomination, “Oppenheimer” star Cillian Murphy won a Golden Globe (one of five wins for the film); director Christopher Nolan made the DGA list, and the actors received the SAG ensemble. Similarly, “Killers of the Flower Moon” star Lily Gladstone added a SAG nomination to her Globes win, director Martin Scorsese made the DGA list and the ensemble and Robert De Niro received SAG recognition —  but in an unexpected sign of weakness, Leonardo DiCaprio missed a SAG Best Actor nod.

The sophisticated, feminist coming-of-age fantasy “Poor Things” also did not score a SAG Ensemble nomination. In addition to “Oppenheimer” and “Killers,” those slots went to the accessible yet satirical family comedy “American Fiction,” “Barbie,” and the musical “The Color Purple.”

While the DGA previously nominated Bradley Cooper as a first-timer director for “A Star is Born,” Netflix’s artier “Maestro” did not make the DGA cut, nor did it land a SAG Ensemble nomination. (Cooper and costar Carey Mulligan did receive SAG nominations.) “Maestro” is far more likely to play well for Oscar voters, who can’t resist stories about artists, from Oscar-winning “The Artist” to “Birdman” and “La La Land.” On the other hand, “May December,” Todd Haynes’ Netflix movie about an actress (Natalie Portman) studying a real woman (Julianne Moore) for a role, had no traction with the actors or directors guilds.

“American Fiction” is popular with actors, who also nominated Jeffrey Wright and Sterling K. Brown. The directors included Cord Jefferson on their first-time directors list, along with Celine Song (“Past Lives”), A.V. Rockwell (“A Thousand and One”), Manuela Martelli (“Chile 76”), and Noora Niasari (“Shayda”). Not a white person in the bunch.

Which leaves Globe-winners “Oppenheimer” (five), “Barbie” (two), and “Killers of the Flower Moon” (one) leading the Oscar frontrunners. “American Fiction” is doing just fine, too.

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