Gold Derby editors predict the major Emmy limited series winners with final voting imminent [WATCH]

Ray Richmond, Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon and Daniel Montgomery
·9 min read
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Whenever Gold Derby senior editors Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon, Daniel Montgomery and news and features editor Ray Richmond get together over Zoom these days, the discussion quickly turns to a debate over the various major Emmy races. The intensity in their conversation reached a fever pitch last week with the approach of final-round Emmy voting taking place August 17 to 28. Will their expert chat help influence voters? Hope springs eternal. Watch the exclusive video of their entire four-way slugfest (moderated by Dixon) above. The analysis will be presented in three posted installments, with the final one covering limited series categories today (43:26 – 1:03.16 in the video).

LIMITED SERIES

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(Nominees: “Beef,” “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,” “Daisy Jones and the Six,” “Fleishman is in Trouble,” “Obi-Wan Kenobi”)

Before the 10-part “Beef” premiered on Netflix in April, another Netflix project – “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” – seemed on its way to certain victory at this year’s Emmys. But since the spring, “Beef” had been creeping up in popularity. Since the Emmy nominations were revealed on July 12, it’s been all “Beef,” the top choice of more than 80 percent of Gold Derby voters. Both “Beef'” and “Dahmer” scored 13 bids, but the momentum all seems to be with the former.

“Why?

“It’s the late breaker, it’s not dark, it’s funny, it’s surprising and it’s just so much fun to watch,” Davidson believes. “This is a category I’m not even going to think twice about moving forward. I think ‘Beef’ has this in the bag.”

Also, unlike “Dahmer,” “Beef” has no “ick” factor associated with it. “Dahmer,” being a series that centers on a notorious real-life serial killer who devoured his victims, may not be every voter’s cup of java, points out Richmond. “There will definitely be as certain percentage of people who don’t want to vote for a project that centers on Jeffrey Dahmer,” he says. “It’s something that has to be disturbing for a lot of people. My caveat is that I didn’t love the last two episodes of ‘Beef,’ when I think it kind of went complete off the rails. But maybe off the rails was where it was supposed to go,  because everyone else seemed to love it.”

 MOVIE/LIMITED ACTOR

(Nominees: Taron Egerton for “Black Bird,” Kumail Nanjiani for “Welcome to Chippendales,” Evan Peters for “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,” Daniel Radcliffe for “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story,” Michael Shannon for “George & Tammy,” Steven Yeun for “Beef”)

Peters has been comfortably in front in this race since “Dahmer” premiered, which seems like 2020 but was in fact September of last year. He’s getting a run for his money in the Gold Derby combined odds from Yeun, but the prevailing wisdom is that Peters remains the man to beat.

Of the four editors, only Richmond is sticking with Peters for now and reserves the right to change his mind repeatedly between now and the Emmy ceremony. “I don’t even have Yeun second but third behind Peters and Radcliffe for the Weird Al movie,” he says. “I’m back and forth between the two frontrunners, but I’m sticking with Evan Peters for now because it’s such a powerful performance, ‘ick’ factor or no.”

The “ick” factor convinced Dixon to switch off of Peters to Yeun even though he’s a professed fan of Peters’ work in the series. Davidson agrees, “Off-putting or not, it was still an amazing performance. But I’m predicting Steven Yeun.”

“I’ve got Steven Yeun,” Montgomery agrees. “I just think he and Ali are a package deal. I feel like if people are checking off ‘Beef,’ they’re checking off the two leads. That said, Evan Peters does have a shot for ‘Dahmer.’ But the controversy around ‘Monster,’ and the fact the victims’ families didn’t even want it to be made, that matters.”

MOVIE/LIMITEDACTRESS

(Nominees: Lizzy Caplan for “Fleishman is in Trouble,” Jessica Chastain for “George & Tammy,” Dominique Fishback for “Swarm,” Kathryn Hahn for “Tiny Beautiful Things,” Riley Keough for “Daisy Jones and the Six,” Ali Wong for “Beef”)

This is shaping up as a two-way race between Wong and Oscar winner Chastain, with Wong holding a comfortable lead at the moment as the frontrunner on Gold Derby despite facing a big movie star playing a country superstar in Tammy Wynette. But Dixon is sticking with Chastain. “She was that miniseries way more than Michael Shannon was on his side,” he maintains. “So that’s why I’m sticking with Jessica. I could be wrong. I realize that ‘Beef’ could sweep every category.”

The other three editors are all on Team Wong, for various reasons.

Montgomery believes, “If it weren’t for her SAG (Awards) win, I don’t know that Jessica Chastain would look as strong. ‘Beef’ wasn’t eligible for the SAGs because it hadn’t aired yet, and Jessica didn’t have to face Ali Wong. So I think it’s Ali. I think ‘Beef’ wins pretty big with limited series and I predict it’ll take five (trophies) on the primetime telecast.”

While Davidson sees a scenario where Chastain wins, he doesn’t think it’s likely given that her program wasn’t even nominated for top limited series. “It’s happened with other actresses who won anyway, like Regina King (for “Watchmen”) and Laura Linney (for “The Big C”), so she’s not completely out of it by any means. But Showtime hasn’t had great success in recent years with the Emmys.”

“I’m with Ali Wong because she gave such a complex, nuanced performance,” Richmond notes. “She was so funny but also had moments where she made you nervous. That should be enough.”

MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTOR

(Nominees: Murray Bartlett for “Welcome to Chippendales,” Paul Walter Hauser for “Black Bird,” Richard Jenkins for “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,” Joseph Lee for “Beef,” Ray Liotta for “Black Bird,” Young Mazino for “Beef,” Jesse Plemons for “Love & Death”)

Hauser has been atop the Gold Derby list in the category since “Black Bird” premiered a little over a year ago (July 8, 2022), and he won a Golden Globe and SAG Award early this year. But the fact his series aired so long ago could work against him, though three editors are still picking him. Only one, Davidson, is going for Jenkins.

Why?

“Because Jenkins is the heart of ‘Monster’,” Davidson explains. “I mean, him and Niecy Nash-Betts are. I think that’s where ‘Monster’ is going to get its trophies. It’s just such a heart-wrenching performance to see what a father of a serial killer goes through in life. What he’s able to do in that role is unlike anything else I’ve seen this season. ‘Black Bird’ seems so long ago now. We’ve been talking about it forever. I just don’t know if the momentum can keep going long enough for Hauser to finally win the Emmy.”

Montgomery agrees “this is a tough one” for him. “I have Paul Walter Hauser, which is sort of counterintuitive to me because the series underperformed significantly. It got only four nominations, and three of them are for acting. I do think this race is closer than it would have been had ‘Black Bird’ performed better.”

Richmond also has Hauser winning “mainly because I love actors who play serial killers” but admits he’s “not at all confident” in the choice and in fact appreciates what both Jenkins and Mazino bring to the table.

MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS

(Nominees: Annaleigh Ashford for “Welcome to Chippendales,” Maria Bello for “Beef,” Claire Danes for “Fleishman is in Trouble,” Juliette Lewis for “Welcome to Chippendales,” Camila Morrone for “Daily Jones and the Six,” Niecy Nash-Betts for Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,” Merritt Wever for “Tiny Beautiful Things”)

No one has managed to knock Nash-Betts from the top perch in the Gold Derby category combined odds, not even Danes, a 10-time Emmy nominee and three-time winner. And while all four editors are picking Nash-Betts for her powerful work in “Dahmer – Monster,” they also know that Danes looms very much as a potential spoiler.

No one knows this more than Dixon, who has been praying for Nash-Betts to take this category from the get-go. “Hands down, the one speech that would bring me the most joy on Emmy night is gong to be hers,” he says. “I cannot wait for it. I’m praying to the Emmy gods that it happens.”

“I think she’s got a great shot,” Richmond adds. “The only other nominee who I feel has a realistic chance at an upset is Claire Danes, just because she’s Claire Danes. She had a great supporting role in ‘Fleishman is in Trouble,’ an episode that was an acting showcase for her. But Niecy is so good. Her work is so moving and chilling.”

Montgomery has Nash-Betts winning, noting, “As much of the ‘ick’ factor that ‘Monster’ potentially has, I don’t think any of that rubs off on her. I think the role she plays is one of the most sympathetic on the series. But yeah, this is a two=way race. It’s her and Claire Danes.” Adds Davidson: “‘Fleishman’ did better than I thought it would overall in terms of nominations (it earned seven). But I’m not going to worry about Niecy. She’s staying on top.”

PREDICT the 2023 Emmy winners.

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