Georgia vs. Alabama national championship: 5 reasons UGA should not be favored

Per Tipico Sportsbook, Georgia is a 2.5-point favorite to win the national championship over Alabama in Indianapolis on Monday, Jan. 10.

Like most college football fans, this makes no sense to me. Georgia is one month removed from receiving a 41-24 beat down from the Crimson Tide in December’s SEC Championship game and not much has changed since.

By now, Georgia fans have learned to keep their hopefulness in check when playing Alabama, and here are five reasons that’s a good idea heading into Monday’s matchup.

All Betting Lines are Courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook

Well, look what happened last time and the time before and all the times before

Stetson Bennett #13 of the Georgia Bulldogs is sacked by Phidarian Mathis #48 of the Alabama Crimson Tide during the third quarter of the SEC Championship game against the at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Dec. 4, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Look, I don’t like being that guy, but let’s be real for a moment here. Georgia has lost the last seven games to Alabama, including one just two games ago in Atlanta.

The last two times Georgia has played Alabama, it lost 41-24.

I am done getting my hopes up before playing Alabama, even if I do think we’re the more talented team.

I just can’t think of any reason Georgia would play an entirely different game than it did a month ago. The problem was the Dawgs could not get to Bryce Young, and when they did he made them miss. If Georgia doesn’t miss these tackles this time around, it has a chance.

Can Stetson Bennett win Georgia the game?

Dec. 4, 2021; Atlanta; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) throws against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the first half during the SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Stetson was incredible against Michigan and was just as important in winning that game as the Georgia defense was.

But the last two times he played against Alabama, he lost 41-24 and threw a combined five interceptions. He was not the sole reason Georgia lost to Bama last month – the defense played horribly – but his costly interceptions did not help. Even against Michigan, he made a few plays that were total headscratchers and almost proved costly.

Stetson is not a bad quarterback at all. He led Georgia to a 13-1 record, but to have the same outcome in back-to-back games against Alabama tells me enough. Third time’s the charm? I’m not sure.

Every time you think Kirby Smart has learned his lesson, he makes you question...

Dec. 4, 2021; Atlanta; Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart walks off the field after a loss against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Kirby Smart has gotten out to an early lead every single time he’s played Nick Saban. And every time, his team has let Bama get back in the game before eventually losing.

You’re Georgia. You should be able to hold on to a big lead against ANYBODY.

Going away from what’s working and not making the necessary adjustments has killed us in the past against Bama, and I’m now at the point where I’ll believe it when I see it.

I love Kirby, but Alabama is the hump he just can’t get over.

If Georgia cannot sack Bryce Young, it's game over

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young (9) avoids a tackle from Georgia defensive lineman Jordan Davis (99) during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game between Georgia and Alabama in Atlanta, on Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021. Joshua L Jones

Look at the photo above — that’s Bryce Young evading yet another tackle, this time from Georgia all-American Jordan Davis.

Yes, the Alabama offensive line played far better against Georgia than it did anybody else this year, but the Dawgs still had plenty of chances to sack Young. But Young was simply unstoppable and refused to go down. The longer he extended the play, the longer the receivers had to get open. Georgia’s secondary, though it played poorly in general, had no chance of staying with Bama’s receivers that long and it killed them.

I’m simply a fan, so I don’t know what it takes to get to Young and to actually sack him. That’s not my job to figure that out. But you don’t have to be a coach to know that if you give Young too much time, you’re screwed.

Alabama is the underdog. Great, just what we needed, more yummy rat poison

Dec. 4, 2021; Atlanta; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban is interviewed after winning the SEC Championship by defeating the Georgia Bulldogs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Nick Saban made one of his more memorable quotes after beating Georgia last month, describing the rat poison associated with Alabama being an underdog as yummy.

And what do you know. Vegas gave him some more of that yummy stuff once again. Despite Vegas thinking Georgia will win this game, I doubt many in the media have the same idea. Still, it’s enough to get Alabama excited to prove people wrong. And as we’ve learned, that’s a very dangerous recipe.

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