Will Future and Metro Boomin’s ‘We Don’t Trust You’ Top Ariana Grande’s 2024 First-Week Mark?

Andrew Unterberger
·6 min read
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Apr. 6), a big week of new releases is headlined by Future and Metro Boomin, who could break the mark for first-week units set by Ariana Grande just two weeks earlier.

Future & Metro Boomin, We Don’t Trust You (Freebandz/Boominati/Epic/Republic): It was always gonna be big-time when hip-hop superstars Future and Metro Boomin got together for their first collaborative album. Not only have they proven to be two of the most consistently successful figures in the last decade-plus of rap, but they have extensive history and chemistry with one another — down to Future providing Metro’s famous “If young Metro don’t trust you, I’m gon’ shoot you” producer tag (via his appearance on Uncle Murda’s “Right Now”), which partly inspired the name of their recent team-up, We Don’t Trust You.

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Now, the two hip-hop greats with 11 No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200 already between them are likely gonna be in line for their 12th. We Don’t Trust You immediately dominated the internet upon its release last Friday (March 22), with its entire tracklist swarming the top of the Spotify and Apple Music daily charts. Somewhat ironically, the thing the album is getting the most attention for has little to do with either Future or Metro, but rather the “Like That” guest verse from an arguably even bigger superstar in Kendrick Lamar – with its shots fired against Drake and J. Cole sending social media into an absolute tizzy, likely propelling the song to a No. 1 debut next week on the Billboard Hot 100.

Its parent album also seems all but certain to grace the top of the charts. Trust has remained a blockbuster on streaming — as of Tuesday, Future and Metro still commanded four of the top 10 spots on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA, and nine of the top 10 on Apple Music’s real-time chart – likely helped by an initially hidden guest list, which prompted users to listen to the 17-track set in full to discover the features for themselves. Even without a physical release yet, its streaming and digital sales numbers should be robust enough for the set to challenge Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine mark (227,000) for the biggest first week yet of 2024 – though Future and Metro would still have to do better as a duo than either did with their own most recent solo sets, 2022’s I Never Liked You (222,000) and Heroes and Villains (185,000), respectively.

Shakira, Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran (Sony Latin): Future and Metro are far from the only longtime hitmakers who released new sets on Friday: arguably the biggest global superstar from the last 30 years of Latin pop also made her return. Shakira’s 16-track new set Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran is essentially divided into two parts – half entirely new pop bangers, including the New Music Friday-leading Cardi B collab “Puntería,” and half singles Shak has already had success with over her highly productive past couple years, including 2023’s barnstorming Bizarrap team-up “Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53.”

That combination of explosive new bangers (also including guest appearances from the starry likes of Grupo Frontera, Rauw Alejandro and – again – Bizarrap) and established hits should result in a pretty formidable showing on streaming, though Shakira has nowhere near the established history there (especially in this country) as Future and Metro. She does have a physical presence, though, with Las Mujeres available for sale in four different vinyl editions (each with a different cover and different-colored LP), as well as four different CDs (also with different covers) and a standard digital release.

Kenny Chesney, Born (Blue Chair/Warner Nashville): Another decades-spanning star returns this week from the country world in Kenny Chesney with his 19th studio album (and first in four years), Born. The album doesn’t have the kind of advance radio hits Chesney might have landed in the past; only “Take Her Home” had been previously pulled from the set, and had peaked at No. 13 on Billboard’s Country Airplay listing. But Chesney does have both standard and signed editions of Born for sale — as well as a “Tour Edition” of its digital release with three bonus live cuts, available for purchase to anyone who bought tickets to his upcoming summer trek or are members of his fan club – and he has the chart history of nine No. 1 albums, spanning from 2002’s No Shoes, No Shirt, No Problem to Born’s predecessor, 2020’s Here and Now.

IN THE MIX

Olivia Rodrigo, Guts (Geffen): While Olivia Rodrigo largely refused to play the reissue game with her game-changing debut album Sour, she’s diving into the deluxe editions with sophomore set Guts. Last Friday saw the release of Guts (Spilled), which tacked five stellar new cuts (previously each found on different specific vinyl variants of the album’s original release) onto the 12 of the chart-topping original LP – including the fan favorite “Obsessed,” which Rodrigo had been playing at stops on her current Guts World Tour. There’s no new physical drop for the deluxe set at the moment, but the resounding streaming and sales activity for the new cuts should help the album (which is still lingering in the Billboard 200’s top 20 a half-year after its initial release) rebound on the chart this week, possibly getting it back to the top 10 for the first time since early December.

Hozier, Unheard (Rubyworks/Columbia): About a half-year since his latest album Unreal Unearth debuted at No. 3 on the Billboard 200, Irish singer-songwriter Hozier is back with a new EP of songs that just missed the cut for that set,  Unheard. Though it’s only available on streaming and for digital sale at the moment, and only has four tracks to rack up consumption totals with, it should be in line for a sizeable debut – largely because one of those songs, the TikTok-teased “Too Sweet,” is off to a massive start on streaming, likely on pace to become the artist’s biggest Hot 100 hit since “Take Me to Church” reached No. 2 in 2015.

Tyla, Tyla (Fax/Epic): One of the most anticipated pop debuts of the year comes from South African crossover star Tyla, whose breakout smash “Water” reached the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 in late 2023. Her 14-track LP features both the original and remix versions of “Water,” as well as a decently wide array of big-name guest stars, including Travis Scott, Tems and Becky G, and is available for purchase in three vinyl editions — including two color variants, one with a signed insert.

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