As Fox News Prepares for GOP Debate, the Trump Factor Poses an Unprecedented Challenge

The 2024 election campaign season kicks into high gear next week as Fox News hosts the first Republican candidate debate, introducing a host of challengers to the Democratic incumbent, President Joe Biden. There’s just one problem: The Republican front-runner might not show up — or worse for Fox, he might stage a counterprogramming media coup.

Fox News anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum will host the debate Wednesday in Milwaukee. The network is gearing up for 2024 presidential election coverage, and next week’s debate will determine how prepared it is to jump-start what is arguably the most unusual primary campaign in history.

Former President Donald Trump — who still hasn’t committed to showing up at the debate — has now been indicted in four criminal cases, yet remains the leading candidate among Republicans.

The risks for Fox are multi-faceted. If Trump shows up, he could hijack the evening, as he did when he steamrolled Kaitlan Collins on his CNN town hall, the one that attracted widespread media condemnation and was followed shortly by the dismissal of CNN CEO Chris Licht.

If he chooses to take his ball and stay home, or worse, turn himself in on live television to the Fulton County authorities in Georgia where he was indicted, he could precipitate a ratings disaster for Fox.

The odds of that are not very favorable to Fox, said Brian Stelter, former host of CNN’s “Reliable Sources,” and author of a forthcoming book about Fox News, “Network of Lies.”

“The ratings will be one number with Trump and a much lower number without Trump,” he told TheWrap. “There’s a financial reality that’s inescapable.”

Stelter also said he thinks that Trump’s participation looks unlikely, for a number of reasons.

When reached for comment on the challenges of the upcoming debate, a spokesperson for Fox News referred to a recent interview with Bret Baier in which the anchor said “it would be in the former president’s style” to try to blot out the debate: “But we’re not focused on where he won’t be. We’re focused on if he’ll be on that stage.”

Trump advisors are concerned about the former president attending the debate, according to multiple reports, as they believe he could dig himself a deeper legal hole on stage or otherwise compromise his campaign.

Stelter said that if Trump decides to skip the debate, “It’s a statement about the frontrunner, not a statement about the debate hosts.” And while the former president has “gripes about Bret and Martha… his real issue is sharing a stage with 1% (polling) candidates.”

“I think the heart of the matter is not his objections to Fox, although he has many of those,” Stelter said. “It’s mostly about his objections to these challengers.”

Other qualifying candidates for Wednesday’s debate include Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, entrepreneur and regular Fox News “anti-woke” commentator Vivek Ramaswamy, former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota.

The former president has been told by the RNC that he must decide whether or not he will participate at least 48 hours before the debate, for security purposes, so his deadline is Monday.

In an interview with TheWrap, MacCallum acknowledged the risky nature of next week’s debate for the network.

“He always keeps everybody guessing,” said MacCallum. “In many voters’ minds, they still kind of see him as an incumbent who has been out of office for four years. That is highly unusual.”

The former president was indicted a fourth time Monday by a grand jury over Georgia’s 2020 presidential election probe, including 41 counts stemming from the state’s lengthy investigation into Trump’s alleged conspiratorial conduct throughout the election. And the Georgia case is far from the only impending trial heading Trump’s way.

MacCallum still plans to pose questions about Trump’s legal challenges, whether or not he attends. “I don’t see how you don’t,” she told TheWrap. “It is a huge story.”

“One of the things that we aim to do” during the debate, MacCallum said, “is to give that issue its due.” The anchor acknowledged that Trump’s impending trials “need to be addressed” since he “is the leading candidate right now.”

Legal troubles may not be the only thing holding Trump back from going full MAGA on the debate stage, as Trump has repeatedly attacked the host network for unfavorable coverage since his dramatic departure from the White House, especially when it comes to Fox News’ reluctance to back his 2020 election lies.

Trump went after the network’s “Fox & Friends” Thursday for the program’s coverage of his campaign data. Trump complained that the show doesn’t present polls “where I am beating Biden, by a lot. They just won’t do it!”

The former president added that Fox News “purposely” displays the “worst pictures,” of him. “Just like 2016 all over again,” wrote Trump. “And then they want me to debate!”

Fox News has seen grave consequences for peddling the former president and his advisors’ talking points. In April, the network settled a defamation case related to Fox’s spread of misinformation during the 2020 election with Dominion Voting Systemsfor a massive $787.5 million. The network is not out of the woods yet, with an impending defamation case from Smartmatic, another voting technology company, seeking $2.7 billion in damages.

Meanwhile, Fox News anchors have been consistently appealing to Trump on air to convince him to attend the debate, despite his reluctance to commit.

“I hope he decides to come,” MacCallum told TheWrap. “It’s a good venue for him. I think Bret and I will be very fair.”

She said that voters would “have a much better sense of (the GOP primary field) if he was on the stage.”

When asked whether the former president’s attacks on Fox News are a reason for his hesitancy, MacCallum said although Trump has “gone after” both her and Baier, “you have to have a pretty thick skin to be in this business.”

“Certainly the president is no shrinking violet,” said MacCallum. “He can respond to questions from anybody and he knows that. I think he respects us honestly, and he knows that we would ask fair questions that are really relevant to what people care about.”

Fox News’ push to convince Trump to show up even found top executives privately dining with the former president to reiterate their interest in his participation, understanding the ratings win his appearance would bring them.

NBC News reported that Trump may decide to turn himself in for the Georgia charges on the same day as the debate, in an effort to overshadow the Fox News-hosted event.

CNN reported that Trump’s team is also engaged in conversations with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson about a potential interview on Wednesday for “Tucker on Twitter,” the anchor’s new social media program. The former president is reportedly pitching ideas for debate counter-programming.

When asked whether she sees her role as a moderator any differently considering the unprecedented circumstances, MacCallum said no: “The role of the moderator is always to create a forum where the candidates can be heard on the issues that are really important to American voters.”

However, the preparation for this debate has been circumstantially altered, MacCallum told TheWrap. “In all of our questions, there’s the option for a question directly to (Trump) if he’s there on stage and there’s also options of bringing up what he has said about issues and getting the response from the candidates who are up there as well.”

According to the Fox News host, “There’ll be a role for (Trump) and where he stands on things, whether he’s literally standing there, or whether he’s not there.” MacCallum continued, “If I were him. I’d prefer to actually be there myself.”

If Trump decides to not attend the event, “it’s going to be a pre-Trump era debate,” Stelter told TheWrap. “It’s going to feel like a debate that we had in 2011 before he entered the political scene.”

MacCallum said that while Trump’s legal troubles will be addressed, there are a number of other topics planned for the debate. “We need to address so many issues: the economy and abortion, education, the mood in the country, the future of the country, China, all these things,” she said. “We can’t fit in everything, in 100 minutes, that we would like to but we realize that most people are not walking around all day talking about Trump and Biden’s special counsels.”

“In the end political leaders, they come and go, but the interests and the future concerns for Americans are what matters to them most,” MacCallum said.

A memo detailing the format of Wednesday’s debate, sent last week from Fox News to qualifying candidates and obtained by TheWrap, noted that there will be no opening statements. Each candidate will have one minute per answer, 30 seconds for follow-ups and 45 seconds for closing statements.

The debate will have a two-hour runtime, each hour with two commercial breaks of three to four minutes. While the commercial breaks will allow for touch-ups and trips to the restroom, no campaign staff are permitted backstage throughout the course of the debate.

Fox News editorial guidance sent Wednesday to GOP candidates noted additional rules for the debate. According to the memo, follow-up questions and answers will be at “the moderators’ discretion,” and they will “enforce all time limits.”

“Best efforts will be made to ensure a fair and robust discussion, giving every candidate the opportunity to answer questions and react to others,” the note read.

Candidates’ microphones will be “hot at all times,” and “depending on the number of candidates onstage,” the podiums will be around four feet apart.

In the 2016 debates, Trump pummelled the other candidates one by one, commanding the stage by sheer force of will. Whether he shows up next week or not, his presence will certainly be felt.

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