‘The Flash’ Dashing To $72M+ 4-day Opening – Friday Box Office Update

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Industry estimates show that Andy Muschietti’s The Flash from Warner Bros’ DC is heading for a Friday around $26M, which will yield a 3-day around $64M, and 4-day north of $72M+ at 4,234 theaters. The day is still young, though one thing about last night was how male-heavy Flash was at 74%. To some degree these figures are not surprising as this is where the box office openings of deep universe superhero movies live when they’re starting off a franchise.

Second place at 4,035 is Disney/Pixar’s Elemental with $11M today, a 3-day of $33M, and 4-day of $36M. Yikes, let’s hope it gets better.

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The good news is that holdovers remain very strong to the point where six films alone right now are amounting to $168M for the weekend ($184.4M over the 4-day Juneteenth holiday). Sony Animation’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse booked at 3,873 theaters is looking at a $8.4M third Friday, $28.9M third weekend, -48%, 4-day of $34.3M and running total of $286.8M by Monday, which is 14% ahead of the first Tom Holland movie, Spider-Man: Homecoming at the same point in time (that movie finaling at $334.2M).

Paramount/Skydance/Hasbro’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts at 3,680 is seeing a second Friday of $5.5M, 3-day of $20.5M, -66%, 4-day of $23.5M and running total of 11 days of $104.1M, 8% ahead of 2017’s Transformers: The Last Knight over the same period, that pic ending its U.S/Canada run at $130.1M.

Disney’s The Little Mermaid at 3,480 theaters is eyeing a fourth Friday of $4M, 3-day of $13.1M (-43%), 4-day of $15.3M and running total by Monday of $257.2M.

Lionsgate’s The Blackening at 1,775 theaters per industry estimates is eyeing $2.3M today (including $900K previews), $5.5M 3-day and $6.3M over four days. The pic has a critical score of 84% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and an 81% audience score.

UPDATED FRIDAY AM: The Warner Bros DC movie is settling at $9.7M for Thursday night after showtimes that began at 3 p.m.

That’s better than expected and $300K shy of what Sony’s Venom did back in previews in 2018. That pic got slaughtered on Rotten Tomatoes with 30% critics score but bettered its outlook with an $80M opening. The Flash could very well be following that box office trajectory this weekend. Venom‘s $10M previews repped 31% of its $32.5M Friday/previews, with a 19% ease on Saturday of $26.3M, then $21.3M Sunday.

Early audience PostTrak exits from Comscore/Screen Engine for The Flash, which has a running time of 2 hours and 24 minutes, shows 4 stars for general audiences and a 60% recommend and 3½ for kids under 12 and 57% recommend. Remember, Thursday night always has better, skewed exits due to fans.

The Flash among general audiences pulled in 47% guys over 25 (78% grade), 29% guys under 25 (73% grade), 17% women over 25 (76%) and 7% women under 25 (78%). Diversity demos were 35% Caucasian, Hispanic and Latino at 32% (who gave the Andy Muschietti-directed movie its best grade at 87%), Black at 20% and Asian at 9%. Boys under 12 showed up at 78%.

Other DC pics that The Flash beats preview-wise: Birds of Prey ($4M, $33M opening in 2020), James Gunn’s The Suicide Squad ($4.1M, $26.2M, 2021), Watchmen ($4.5M, $55.2M, 2009), and Green Lantern ($3.3M, $53.1M, 2011).

RELATED: ‘Elemental’ Review: New Pixar Animation Is Visually Splendid, But Swamped In Syrupy Sentiment

Elemental received great grades last night of 4½ stars from general audiences and 69% recommend, while kids under 12 gave it 5 stars and a 69% recommend. However, the movie came in lower than what rival distribution sources were expecting with a very low $2.4M. That’s slightly higher than Onward‘s $2M, and that was off 6 p.m. showtimes in early March 2020 when Covid fears were just bubbling. That Pixar troll movie posted a low $39.1M, which tied with 2015’s The Good Dinosaur as one of the Emeryville, CA, studio’s lowest openings at the box office.

Disney is hoping that Elemental, which closed the Cannes Film Festival last month, gets to $35M. We’ll let this film breathe, hoping it can get a boost on Father’s Day Sunday before we examine the corpse. The Disney/Pixar movie leaned 60% women, and 65% moms with girls outweighing boys, 66% to 34%. Women over 25 showed up at 32% (85% grade), women under 25 at 27% (89% grade), men over 25 at 25% (85% grade) and men under 25 at 15% (67% grade). Diversity demos were Caucasian 31%, Hispanic and Latino at 27%, Black at 17% and Asian at a very strong 20%.

RELATED: ‘The Blackening’ Trailer: Juneteenth Getaway Takes A Killer Turn In Tim Story’s Horror Comedy

Lionsgate also has the Tim Story-directed Juneteenth horror comedy, The Blackening, which launched Wednesday in previews, as well as Thursday night. The movie did $900K in previews. The pic gets 3½ stars on PostTrak and 52% recommend, with Black moviegoers showing up at 55% (best grade at 81%), Caucasian at 23%, Hispanic and Latino at 15% and Asian at 2%. Men over 25 at 39% were the biggest draw, followed by women over 25 at 30%, women under 25 at 17% and men under 25 at 14%. Outlook for the movie is mid-single digits at 1,775 theaters. Lionsgate acquired this feature for a low $5M from MRC.

The Top 5 pics Thursday:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony) 4,332 theaters Thu $5.2m (-18%), Wk $82.5M, Total $252.5M/Wk 2

2. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Par) 3,678 theaters, Thu $3M (-30%), Wk $80.6M/Wk 1

3. The Little Mermaid (Dis) 4,320 theaters Thu $2.5M (-17%), Wk $35.9M Total $241.9M/Wk 3

4. The Boogeyman (Dis/20th) 3,205 theaters, Thu $767K (-25%) Wk $11.1M, Total $28.9M/Wk 2

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Dis) 3,175 theaters, Thu $752K (-20%), Wk $11M, Total $339.3M/Wk 6

PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: Warner Bros./DC’s The Flash per box office sources is playing like a deeper universe superhero movie with around $9M in Thursday night previews which began at 3PM. While the pic’s critical score on Rotten Tomatoes has fallen to 67% fresh from 71% fresh, audiences are enjoying it more at 88%. That’s a good sign.

Already tonight, Warner Bros is celebrating before Flash‘s final Monday grosses: DC co-chief James Gunn and Peter Safran christened Flash director Andy Muschietti the official helmer of their future Batman reboot, The Brave and the Bold, while Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group and Television inked a multi-year pact with the Argentinian filmmaker and his sister producer Barbara Muschietti.

Flash‘s Thursday is in the vicinity of such preview nights as Sony/Marvel’s Venom ($10M), Marvel’s Doctor Strange ($9.4M), DC’s Aquaman ($9M excluding paid sneaks), yet above Marvel’s Ant-Man ($6.4M).

Wonder Woman did $11M on her Thursday night. But remember that was a long-awaited big DC superhero that female moviegoers were craving for, not to mention it had the big media wattage of Gal Gadot who was everywhere. Flash is in a very different situation: its star Ezra Miller literally just made their big PR debut for the film on Monday, four days before opening, at the Hollywood premiere; the actor kept largely out of the $200M pic’s promo machine given their tabloid history over the last year-plus. Also The Flash cast hasn’t been able to make a splash on late night TV since those shows are dark due to the WGA Strike.

The weekend outlook for Flash is between $70M-$75M, however, if it emulates the gross patterns of Doctor Strange and Venom, with tonight repping around 30% of its complete Friday+previews, then the Muschiettis’ DC superhero movie could find its way into the $80M+ neighborhood; Venom opened to $80.2M in U.S./Canada while Doctor Strange did $85M.

Both Wonder Woman and Aquaman are slightly different superpowered beings when it comes to their box office comps. Though tracking had Wonder Woman, which opened during the first weekend of June 2017, between $65M-75M (93% RT crtics, 83% audiences), it lassoed big buzz immediately and overpowered to a $103.2M start.

Aquaman played over a Christmas stretch at the end of 2018. While it posted a $9M pure Thursday in previews, the pic had an additional $4.7M added to its weekend from paid sneaks for a pure $67.8M 3-day, $72.5M running total before Christmas Eve Monday and Christmas Day Tuesday pushed it to a very good $105.4M 5-day+ previews start. Aquaman was 65% with critics, and 72% with audiences but ultimately finaled at $335M in U.S./Canada, a 4.6x multiple off that $72.5M number (it was Christmas, and Jason Momoa brought in the women).

Now we have a majority of schools and people off from work on Monday, Juneteenth (June 19). So what can that bring to The Flash? Since it’s a new holiday, we have yet to see some major moviegoing action; last year’s top Juneteenth films (which were technically on June 20) — Jurassic World: Dominion, Lightyear and Top Gun: Maverick saw single digit takes between $6.5M-$8.6M, averaging a -55% dip from their Sunday gross.

Disney/Pixar’s Elemental started previews at 3PM tonight and box office sources peg that pic’s Thursday night at around $3.5M (Lightyear, considered a misfire for Pixar, did $5.2M in previews before a 3-day of $50.5M). While Flash has Imax, Elemental has 2,400 3D locations, 275 PLF auditoriums and 140 4D/D-Box screens imbedded in its 4,000 theater booking. Low projections on the film, which audiences like more than critics on Rotten Tomatoes, 88% to 76%, are at $35M, though it wouldn’t be shocking if the Peter Sohn directed title gets into the $40M range.

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