FiveThirtyEight updates its College Football Playoff predictions model heading into Week 11
We are just a few weeks away from knowing which four teams will take part in the 2022 College Football Playoff. And while there are four teams in Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and TCU that appear to be a clear choice today, we know that’s most likely going to change through the last four weeks of the season that includes the conference championship games.
It’s one thing to provide an opinion though. It’s another to actually have a predictive model built on analytics based on what has happened since the inception of the CFP to try and figure this thing out. That’s exactly what the popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight is built for.
Each week since midway through the college football season, FiveThirtyEight updates its College Football Playoff Predictions model to determine the teams with the best chance of making the College Football Playoff. We follow it every week since Ohio State is right in the thick of things again, and the Buckeyes are still in a good spot heading into Week 11.
Here is where the OSU and other teams are in their chances of making the CFP according to FiveThirtyEight as we get ready for the home stretch of the season. We include only teams with a 5% chance or better according to the model.
No. 15 - Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)
Oct 29, 2022; College Station, Texas, USA; Mississippi Rebels running back Quinshon Judkins (4) celebrates with quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) after a touchdown run against the Texas A&M Aggies in the second half at Kyle Field. Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5% (⇓)
Chances if win out
37%
No. 13 (tie) - North Carolina Tar Heels (8-1)
Oct 29, 2022; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) with offensive lineman Asim Richards (72) after running for a first down as Pittsburgh Panthers defensive lineman Deslin Alexandre (5) is in the background in the fourth quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
6% (⇔)
Chances if win out
51%
No. 13 (tie) - Texas Longhorns (6-3)
Texas Longhorns running back Roschon Johnson (2) runs the ball forward during the Texas Longhorns football game against Kansas State at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas on Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
6% (⇑)
Chances if win out
32%
No. 11 (tie) - Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2)
Oct 8, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban reacts during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
7% (⇓)
Chances if win out
11%
No. 11 (tie) - Utah Utes (7-2)
Sep 3, 2022; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Utah Utes place kicker Jordan Noyes (67) smiles as he makes an extra point against the Florida Gators during the second half at Steve Spurrier-Florida Field. Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
7% (⇔)
Chances if win out
25%
No. 10 - UCLA Bruins (8-1)
Sep 3, 2022; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (1) celebrates his touchdown scored against Bowling Green Falcons with offensive lineman Raiqwon O’Neal (71) during the second half at Rose Bowl. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
8% (⇑)
Chances if win out
56%
No. 9 - LSU Tigers (7-2)
Josh Williams runs the ball and scores as the LSU Tigers take down Alabama 32-31 at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA, Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
14% (⇑)
Chances if win out
84%
No. 8 - USC Trojans (8-1)
Nov 11, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans running back Raleek Brown (14) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Colorado Buffaloes during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
15% (⇑)
Chances if win out
84%
No. 7 - Oregon Ducks (8-1)
Oregon players celebrate a touchdown by running back Jordan James, center, as the Oregon Ducks take on the Stanford Cardinal Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore.
PRINT MAIN Ncaa Football Oregon Stanford Football Stanford At Oregon. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
23% (⇑)
Chances if win out
89%
No. 6 - TCU Horned Frogs (9-0)
Nov 5, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs punt returner Derius Davis (11) reacts after scoring a touchdown on an 82-yard punt return during the first half of a game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
33% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 5 - Clemson Tigers (8-1)
Clemson tight end Jake Briningstool (9) and teammates celebrate a play during the second quarter against NC State at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina Saturday, October 1, 2022.
Ncaa Football Clemson Football Vs Nc State Wolfpack. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
34% (⇓)
Chances if win out
76%
No. 4 - Tennessee Volunteers (8-1)
Oct 22, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Jalin Hyatt (11) is congratulated by offensive lineman Javontez Spraggins (76) and offensive lineman Jerome Carvin (75) after scoring a touchdown against the Tennessee Martin Skyhawks during the first half at Neyland Stadium. Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
41% (⇓)
Chances if win out
57%
No. 3 - Michigan Wolverines (9-0)
Nov 5, 2022; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan Wolverines linebacker Michael Barrett (23) returns an interception during the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at SHI Stadium. Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
45% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 2 - Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0)
Nov 5, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; The Ohio State Buckeyes sing “Carmen Ohio” following the NCAA football game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. Ohio State won 21-7. Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
66% (⇓)
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 1 - Georgia Bulldogs (9-0)
Georgia Bulldogs running back Branson Robinson (22) celebrates with Georgia Bulldogs tight end Cade Brock (44) after scoring a touchdown during the second half of an NCAA college football game between Auburn and Georgia in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Sept. 8, 2022. News Joshua L Jones
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
83% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
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