Five reasons why Sarah Polley and ‘Women Talking’ will win the Oscar for adapted screenplay

This year marks Sarah Polley’s second shot at an Academy Award for adapted screenplay. Her first nomination came in 2008 for “Away from Her,” when she lost to Joel and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men.” Now she’s up for “Women Talking,” which Polley adapted from the 2018 novel by Miriam Toews. The film premiered at Telluride last September and generated immediate Oscar buzz and rave reviews.

Back in those early days, Polley looked like a decent bet for her first career directing nomination, with Emmy-winners Claire Foy and Ben Whishaw and Oscar nominee Jessie Buckley also seen as strong contenders in the supporting acting categories.

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SEE‘Women Talking’s’ Sarah Polley can make it back-to-back female Oscar winners in Best Adapted Screenplay

But as the balmy hope of late summer gave way to the cold reality of winter, the “Women Talking” momentum cooled considerably. The film subsequently underperformed at the Golden Globes, garnering just two nominations (for Polley’s screenplay and one for Oscar-winning composer Hildur Guðnadóttir). At the SAG Awards, it only managed a single bid for the film’s ensemble. Then there was BAFTA, which clearly didn’t care for the film at all in snubbing it across the board.

By the time the Oscar nominations were announced in late January, the film had lost a considerable amount of steam. There would be no entrance into the boys club that is the Best Director race. However, the movie slipped into the Best Picture nominee group of 10 – no small feat and far more than a mere consolation – and Polley herself landed in the adapted screenplay race. Moreover, she’s the frontrunner among nominated writers in Gold Derby’s combined odds, her script besting those of “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Glass Onion,” “Living” and “Top Gun: Maverick.”

SEEBest Adapted Screenplay Oscar: Editors split between ‘All Quiet’ and ‘Women Talking’

Here are five reasons why the faith of Gold Derby’s voters is justified:

1 – It’s already won in this very category this year. Yes indeed, Polley walked off with the adapted screenplay trophy at the Critics Choice Awards, beating out “Living” and “Glass Onion,” among others. Polley is also nominated at this Sunday’s WGA Awards, facing off against fellow Oscar nominees “Glass Onion” and “Top Gun: Maverick.” The winner there will help clarify this Oscar race.

2 – Its SAG ensemble nomination may suggest more industry support than some suspect. Even though the film’s acclaimed cast didn’t secure any major precursor solo acting nominations other than Buckley at the Critics Choices, that the film managed to pull off a SAG ensemble nomination is significant. It proves that the industry is watching the film and was impressed enough by the acting performances to collectively cite them. Remember which films won the screenplay awards at last year’s Oscars? The answer is “Belfast” and “CODA,” both of which were SAG ensemble nominees.

SEE‘Women Talking’ producer Dede Gardner explains why this was ‘a perfect jewel’ of an adaptation [Exclusive Video Interview]

3 – Sequels and remakes don’t tend to win Best Adapted Screenplay. Trust me. I did my research. Remarkably, four of the five nominees in the category this year are either sequels or remakes. Looking back over the years since 1990, only five sequels (“The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” “Before Sunset,” “Toy Story 3,” “Before Midnight” and “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”) and four remakes (“True Grit,” “Little Women,” “A Star is Born” and “CODA”) have been nominated. Of those, only two have taken home the prize: the final Oscar-sweeping film in the “Lord of the Rings” trilogy (2003) and last year’s “CODA”. While “Top Gun: Maverick” is a Best Picture nominee, and while it clearly appears to have some support across the technical categories, it’s a sequel, which might turn off some voters. And as much as “All Quiet on the Western Front” has been surging, it’s also a reboot, albeit of a film that played in theaters 93 years ago. “Living” is also technically a remake, adapted from the Japanese film “Ikiru” (1952). Oh, and “Glass Onion”? Sequel. It’s right there in the subtitle: “A Knives Out Mystery.”

SEEHow Sarah Polley can rewrite the Oscar record books with a ‘Women Talking’ screenplay win

4 – It’s a Best Picture nominee: If you’re a “Women Talking” supporter, you might’ve been holding your breath on Oscar nomination morning because it had taken quite a few hits in the lead up to the announcement. Despite not getting any acting nominations, “WT” secured that coveted Best Picture nom. In other words, it had enough support across the board to crack that hallowed lineup. This is no small thing. It was the same case last year when Sian Heder won in the category for “CODA” (and Best Picture, too). Back-to-back female adapted screenplay winners? It hasn’t happened before, so maybe it’s time.

5 – It’s from a woman, and Oscar voters are concerned with appearing misogynistic: All other things being equal, it’s far tougher for a woman to navigate entertainment terrain that’s traditionally claimed by men. But when things aren’t equal – say, when you represent the only female-centric production nominated in a winnable category at the Oscars – the odds are suddenly reversed.

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