Final Oscars Predictions: Live Action Short – Three Films Starring Benedict Cumberbatch, David Oyelowo and Brittany Snow Battle for Statuette

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Live Action Short

Weekly Commentary (Updated March 5, 2024): Many pundits regard the best live action short category as Wes Anderson’s to lose, thanks to his 40-minute Netflix short film, “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.” Interestingly, the final Oscar ballots do not display the director’s names. Although many are aware that he helmed this piece, some, especially within the now-separated Shorts and Animation Branch, are perturbed by an established filmmaker entering the arena with a well-funded project.

The streaming giant also presents Misan Harriman’s “The After,” starring David Oyelowo. Winner at the HollyShorts Film Festival, the film about a grieving rideshare driver has garnered a mix of support, attracting as many admirers as it has critics. Splitting the awards push from Netflix might make way for another winning contender to emerge.

This scenario could pave the way for a smaller production like Nazrin Choudhury’s “Red, White, and Blue,” featuring Brittany Snow, which tackles the timely issue of reproductive rights. That has helped previous winners such as Black Americans being killed by police in the Groundhog Day-esque drama “Two Distant Strangers” (2020). It also was able to get names like former late night host Samantha Bee to moderate a Q&A during voting that could have given it a fighting chance.

Will win: “The After” (Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham)
Could win: “Red, White and Blue” (Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane)
Should win: “Red, White and Blue”
Should have been here: “Strange Way of Life” (Pedro Almodóvar)

The most decorated individual in this category is Walt Disney, with an unparalleled six wins out of 13 nominations—an unbreakable record. The title for most nominations goes to Gordon Hollingshead, who secured 20 nods and walked away with five Oscars.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

And the Nominees Are:

1. “The After” (Netflix)
   Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham

2. “Red, White and Blue” (Brandy Rivers/Industry Entertainment)
   Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane

3. “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” (Netflix)
   Wes Anderson and Steven Rales

4. “Knight of Fortune” (Jalabert Production)
   Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron

5. “Invincible” (H264 Distribution)
   Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized) **

• “The After”

• “The Anne Frank Gift Shop”

• “An Avocado Pit”

• “Bienvenidos a Los Angeles”

• “Dead Cat”

• “Good Boy”

• “Invincible”

• “Invisible Border”

• “Knight of Fortune”

• “The One Note Man”

• “Red, White and Blue”

• “The Shepherd”

• “Strange Way of Life”

• “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”

• “Yellow”

2022 category winner: “An Irish Goodbye” — Tom Berkeley and Ross White

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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