Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscar Projections With All Hopefuls Now Having Been Screened

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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Best Picture

Frontrunners
1. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
2. Oppenheimer (Universal)
3. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
5. Poor Things (Searchlight)
6. Past Lives (A24)
7. Maestro (Netflix)
8. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
9. The Holdovers (Focus)
10. The Zone of Interest (A24)

Major Threats
11. May December (Netflix)
12. Rustin (Netflix)
13. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
14. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
15. Origin (Neon)
16. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)

Possibilities
17. Ferrari (Neon)
18. Air (Amazon/MGM)
19. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
20. Priscilla (A24)
21. Nyad (Netflix)
22. The Taste of Things (IFC)

Best Director

Frontrunners
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Major Threats
6. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
7. Celine Song (Past Lives)
8. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
9. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
10. Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
11. Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
12. Ava DuVernay (Origin)

Possibilities
13. Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
14. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
15. Michael Mann (Ferrari)
16. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
17. Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)
18. George C. Wolfe (Rustin) — podcast
19. Ridley Scott (Napoleon)
20. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron)

Best Actor

Frontrunners
1. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
3. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Major Threats
6. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
8. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast
9. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
10. Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)

Possibilities
11. Adam Driver (Ferrari) — podcast
12. Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)
13. Michael Fassbender (The Killer)
14. Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
15. Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)

Can’t Yet Call
Eugenio Derbez (Radical) — podcast
Franz Rogowski (Passages)

Best Actress

Frontrunners
1. Annette Bening (Nyad)
2. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
3. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
5. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast

Major Threats
6. Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
7. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
8. Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
9. Greta Lee (Past Lives)
10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast

Possibilities
11. Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
12. Eve Hewson (Flora and Son)
13. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
14. Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)
15. Thomasin McKenzie (Eileen)

Can’t Yet Call
Jessica Chastain (Memory) — podcast

Best Supporting Actor

Frontrunners
1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
4. Charles Melton (May December)
5. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast

Major Threats
6. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
7. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
8. Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)
9. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
10. Chris Messina (Air)

Possibilities
11. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
12. John Magaro (Past Lives)
13. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
14. Colman Domingo (The Color Purple)

Can’t Yet Call
Peter Sarsgaard (Memory)

Best Supporting Actress

Frontrunners
1. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
2. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
3. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
4. Julianne Moore (May December)
5. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)

Major Threats
6. Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
7. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
8. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast
9. Viola Davis (Air)
10. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
11. America Ferrera (Barbie)

Possibilities
12. Issa Rae (American Fiction) — podcast
13. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)
14. Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)
15. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
16. Tracee Ellis Ross (American Fiction) — podcast
17. Leslie Uggams (American Fiction)
18. Anne Hathaway (Eileen)
19. Patricia Clarkson (Monica) — podcast

Best Adapted Screenplay

Frontrunners
1. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
2. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
3. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
5. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Major Threats
6. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)
8. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
9. The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)

Possibilities
11. Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Schuker Blum)
12. Nyad (Julia Cox)
13. Ferrari (Troy Kennedy Martin)
14. Eileen (Luke Goebel and Ottessa Moshfegh)

Best Original Screenplay

Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
2. Past Lives (Celine Song)
3. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)
5. May December (Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik)

Major Threats
6. Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
7. The Teacher’s Lounge (İlker Catak and Johannes Duncker)
8. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
9. Origin (Ava DuVernay)
10. Air (Alex Convery)

Possibilities
11. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)
12. Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
13. Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)
14. Flora and Son (John Carney)
15. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)

Best International Feature

Frontrunners
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. The Taste of Things (France)
3. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
4. Perfect Days (Japan)
5. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

Major Threats
6. Four Daughters (Tunisia)

Can’t Yet Call
Blaga’s Lessons (Bulgaria)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
Shayda (Australia)
Io Capitano (Italy)
Godland (Iceland)
The Promised Land (Denmark)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
In the Shadow of Beirut (Ireland)
About Dry Grasses (Turkey)
Thunder (Switzerland)
The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
Brothers (Czech Republic)
Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World (Romania)
Traces (Croatia)
Voy! Voy! Voy! (Egypt)
Sweet Dreams (Netherlands)

Best Documentary Feature

Frontrunners
1. American Symphony (Netflix)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
3. Kokomo City (Magnolia)
4. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
5. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)

Rest of the Shortlist
6. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
7. The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
8. The Eternal Memory (MTV)
9. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
10. The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
11. The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
12. The Mission (Nat Geo)
13. Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
14. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
15. Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)

Possibilities
16. Every Body (Focus)
17. Occupied City (A24)
18. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
19. King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)
20. The League (Magnolia)
21. Joan Baez: I Am a Noise (Magnolia)

Can’t Yet Call
32 Sounds (Abramorama)
Black Ice (Lionsgate)
A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Story (HBO)
Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)
In the Rearview (Film Movement)
In the Shadow of Beirut (Cyprus Avenue)
Judy Blume Forever (Amazon)
Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
The Mother of All Lies (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBC)
Smoke Sauna Sisterhood (Greenwich)
A Still Small Voice (Abramorama)
Uncharitable (Abramorama)
What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears? (Abramorama)
While We Watched (PBS)
Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)

Best Animated Feature

Frontrunners
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
4. They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)
5. Nimona (Netflix)

Major Threats
6. Wish (Disney)
7. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)
8. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)

Can’t Yet Call
Amazing Maurice (Viva)
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Deep Sea (Viva)
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Leo (Netflix)
Migration (Illumination)
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)

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