Feinberg Forecast: Updated Emmys Projections One Week Before the Start of Final Voting

Scott Feinberg
·6 min read
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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Emmys and the history of the Emmys itself.

*BEST DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Standings
Succession (HBO/Max)
The White Lotus (HBO/Max)
The Last of Us (HBO/Max)
Better Call Saul (AMC)
House of the Dragon (HBO/Max)
Andor (Disney+)
The Crown (Netflix)
Yellowjackets (Showtime)

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*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Standings
The Bear (FX)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Barry (HBO/Max)
Jury Duty (Amazon Freevee)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Wednesday (Netflix)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES*

Projected Standings
Beef (Netflix)
Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
Daisy Jones & the Six (Amazon)
Fleishman Is in Trouble (FX)
Obi-Wan Kenobi (Disney+)

*BEST TV MOVIE*

Projected Standings
Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (Roku Channel)
Prey (Hulu)
Fire Island (Hulu)
Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic Christmas (NBC) — podcast [Dolly Parton]
Hocus Pocus 2 (Disney+)

*BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES*

Projected Standings
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast [Stephen Colbert]
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast [Jimmy Kimmel]
The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) — podcast [Trevor Noah]
The Problem With Jon Stewart (Apple TV+)
Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast [Seth Meyers]

*BEST SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES*

Projected Standings
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO/Max)
Saturday Night Live (NBC) — podcast [Lorne Michaels]
A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO/Max) — podcast [Robin Thede]

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)*

Projected Standings
The Apple Music Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show Starring Rihanna (Fox)
Chris Rock: Selective Outrage (Netflix)
Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium (Disney+) — podcast [Elton John]
The Oscars (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
The 75th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED)*

Projected Standings
John Mulaney: Baby J (Netflix) — podcast [John Mulaney]
Norman Lear: 100 Years of Music & Laughter (ABC) — podcast [Norman Lear]
Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love (NBC) — podcast [Carol Burnett]
Trevor Noah: I Wish You Would (Netflix) — podcast [Trevor Noah]
Wanda Sykes: I’m an Entertainer (Netflix)
Lizzo: Live in Concert (HBO/Max) — podcast [Lizzo]

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES*

Projected Standings
The U.S. and the Holocaust (PBS) — podcast [Ken Burns]
Secrets of the Elephants (Nat Geo)
100 Foot Wave (HBO/Max)
The 1619 Project (Hulu)
Dear Mama: The Saga of Afeni and Tupac Shakur (FX)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SPECIAL*

Projected Standings
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple TV+) — podcast [Davis Guggenheim]
Being Mary Tyler Moore (HBO/Max)
Judy Blume Forever (Amazon)
Pamela: A Love Story (Netflix)
My Transparent Life (Amazon)

*BEST HOSTED NONFICTION SERIES OR SPECIAL*

Projected Standings
My Next Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Netflix) — podcast (David Letterman)
Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy (CNN)
The Light We Carry: Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey (Netflix)
The United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell (CNN)
Taste the Nation with Padma Lakshmi (Hulu)

*BEST STRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected Standings
Queer Eye (Netflix)
Shark Tank (ABC) — podcast [Mark Cuban]
Love Is Blind (Netflix)
Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food)

*BEST UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected Standings
RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked (MTV) — podcast [RuPaul]
Welcome to Wrexham (FX) — podcast [Ryan Reynolds]
Indian Matchmaking (Netflix)
Selling Sunset (Netflix)
Vanderpump Rules (Bravo)

*BEST REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM*

Projected Standings
RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV) — podcast [RuPaul]
The Voice (NBC)
The Amazing Race (CBS)
Top Chef (Bravo)
Survivor (CBS)

*BEST GAME SHOW*

Projected Standings
Jeopardy! (Syndicated)
The Price Is Right (CBS)
Wheel of Fortune (Syndicated)
Family Feud (Syndicated)
That’s My Jam (NBC)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Standings
Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us)
Jeremy Strong (Succession) — podcast
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Brian Cox (Succession) — podcast
Jeff Bridges (The Old Man) — podcast

*BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Standings
Sarah Snook (Succession) — podcast
Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)
Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters)
Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — podcast
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Standings
Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus) — podcast
Alan Ruck (Succession)
Alexander Skarsgard (Succession) — podcast
Michael Imperioli (The White Lotus)
Will Sharpe (The White Lotus)
Theo James (The White Lotus)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Standings
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) — podcast
J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)
Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus) — podcast
Meghann Fahy (The White Lotus)
Simona Tabasco (The White Lotus)
Sabrina Impacciatore (The White Lotus)

*BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Standings
Nick Offerman (The Last of Us)
Murray Bartlett (The Last of Us)
James Cromwell (Succession)
Lamar Johnson (The Last of Us)
Keivonn Montreal Woodard (The Last of Us)
Arian Moayed (Succession)

*BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Standings
Anna Torv (The Last of Us)
Harriet Walter (Succession)
Melanie Lynskey (The Last of Us)
Storm Reid (The Last of Us)
Hiam Abbass (Succession)
Cherry Jones (Succession)

*BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Standings
Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Bill Hader (Barry) — podcast
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — podcast
Jason Segel (Shrinking) — podcast

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Standings
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — podcast
Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Standings
James Marsden (Jury Duty)
Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
Phil Dunster (Ted Lasso)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Standings
Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) — podcast
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
Jessica Williams (Shrinking)

*BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Standings
Pedro Pascal (Saturday Night Live)
Nathan Lane (Only Murders in the Building)
Oliver Platt (The Bear)
Sam Richardson (Ted Lasso)
Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Jon Bernthal (The Bear)

*BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Standings
Taraji P. Henson (Abbott Elementary) — podcast
Quinta Brunson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Judith Light (Poker Face) — podcast
Sarah Niles (Ted Lasso)
Harriet Walter (Ted Lasso)
Becky Ann Baker (Ted Lasso)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Standings
Evan Peters (Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Taron Egerton (Black Bird) — podcast
Steven Yeun (Beef) — podcast
Daniel Radcliffe (Weird: The Al Yankovic Story)
Michael Shannon (George & Tammy) — podcast
Kumail Nanjiani (Welcome to Chippendales) — podcast

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Standings
Ali Wong (Beef)
Jessica Chastain (George & Tammy) — podcast
Riley Keough (Daisy Jones & the Six)
Kathryn Hahn (Tiny Beautiful Things) — podcast
Dominique Fishback (Swarm)
Lizzy Caplan (Fleishman Is in Trouble)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Standings
Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird) — podcast
Ray Liotta (Black Bird) — podcast
Young Mazino (Beef)
Joseph Lee (Beef)
Richard Jenkins (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Murray Bartlett (Welcome to Chippendales)
Jesse Plemons (Love & Death)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Standings
Niecy Nash-Betts (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Claire Danes (Fleishman Is in Trouble) — podcast
Merritt Wever (Tiny Beautiful Things)
Camila Morrone (Daisy Jones & the Six)
Maria Bello (Beef)
Annaleigh Ashford (Welcome to Chippendales)
Juliette Lewis (Welcome to Chippendales)

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