Feinberg Forecast: Updated Emmy Projections

·11 min read

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Emmys and the history of the Emmys itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST DRAMA SERIES*

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Frontrunners
Succession (HBO)
Squid Game (Netflix)
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Ozark (Netflix)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
Yellowstone (Paramount)
This Is Us (NBC)
Severance
(Apple)

Major Threats
Winning Time
(HBO)
Euphoria
(HBO)
Yellowjackets
(Showtime)
Bridgerton (Netflix)
The Morning Show
(Apple)
Pachinko
(Apple)
Tokyo Vice (HBO Max)
Killing Eve (BBC America)

Possibilities
Loki (Disney+)
The Gilded Age
(HBO)
Mayor of Kingstown (Paramount+)
Evil (CBS)
The Good Fight (Paramount+)
The Man Who Fell to Earth (Showtime)
Law and Order (NBC)
As We See It (Amazon)

*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Ted Lasso (Apple)
Hacks
(HBO Max)
Barry
(HBO)
Atlanta (FX)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Major Threats
The Great (Hulu)
Reservation Dogs (FX)
The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
Russian Doll (Netflix)
The Afterparty (Apple)
Emily in Paris (Netflix)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Insecure (HBO)
Pen15 (Hulu)
Better Things (FX)
Schmigadoon (Apple)

Possibilities
The Chair
(Netflix)
And Just Like That
(HBO Max)
Peacemaker (HBO Max)
Minx (HBO Max)
Julia (HBO Max)
The Other Two (HBO Max)
Black-ish (ABC)
Grace and Frankie (Netflix)
Dave (FXX)
Our Flag Means Death (HBO Max)
Ghosts (CBS)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES*

Frontrunners
The Staircase (HBO Max)
The White Lotus (HBO)
Dopesick (Hulu)
The Dropout (Hulu)
Maid (Netflix)

Major Threats
Inventing Anna (Netflix)
1883 (Paramount+)
Under the Banner of Heaven (FX on Hulu)
Gaslit (Starz)
We Own This City (HBO)
Station Eleven (HBO Max)
Scenes from a Marriage (HBO)
Pam and Tommy (Hulu)
A Very British Scandal (Amazon)
The Girl from Plainville
(Hulu)
Moon Knight (Disney+)

Possibilities
WeCrashed (Apple)
The Offer (Paramount+)
The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey (Apple)
The Pursuit of Love (Amazon)
Impeachment: American Crime Story (FX)
Candy
(Hulu)
Midnight Mass
(Netflix)
The Essex Serpent (Apple)
Why Didn’t They Ask Evans? (BritBox)
The Hot Zone: Anthrax (Nat Geo)
Time (BritBox)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game) — podcast
Jeremy Strong (Succession) — podcast
Brian Cox (Succession) — podcast
Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
Kevin Costner (Yellowstone)

Major Threats
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Adam Scott (Severance)
John C. Reilly (Winning Time)
Quincy Isaiah (Winning Time)
Lee Min-Ho (Pachinko)
Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — podcast
Josh Brolin (Outer Range)
Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) — podcast
Justin Hartley (This Is Us)

Possibilities
Jeremy Renner (Mayor of Kingstown)
Ansel Elgort (Tokyo Vice)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (The Man Who Fell to Earth)
Sam Heughan (Outlander)
Tom Hiddleston (Loki) — podcast
Jonathan Bailey (Bridgerton)
Morgan Spector (The Gilded Age)
Jamie Dornan (The Tourist) — podcast
Sam Waterston (Law & Order) — podcast
J.K. Simmons (Night Sky)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Zendaya (Euphoria) — podcast
Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
Laura Linney (Ozark)
Kelly Reilly (Yellowstone)
Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) — podcast

Major Threats
Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) — podcast
Britt Lower (Severance)
Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age)
Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)
Elisabeth Moss (Shining Girls) — podcast
Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)
Juliette Lewis (Yellowjackets)
Simone Ashley (Bridgerton)

Possibilities
Minha Kim (Pachinko)
Nicole Kidman (Nine Perfect Strangers) — podcast
Caitriona Balfe (Outlander) — podcast
Katja Herbers (Evil)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses)
Rosamund Pike (The Wheels of Time) — podcast
Imogen Poots (Outer Range)
Elodie Yung (The Cleaning Lady)
Sissy Spacek (Night Sky)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
Alan Ruck (Succession)
Oh Young-soo (Squid Game)
Park Hae-soo (Squid Game) — podcast
John Turturro (Severance) — podcast
Christopher Walken (Severance)

Major Threats
Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) — podcast
David Harbour (Stranger Things)
Adrien Brody (Winning Time)
Chris Sullivan (This Is Us)
Cole Hauser (Yellowstone)
Luke Grimes (Yellowstone)
Wes Bentley (Yellowstone)
Gil Birmingham (Yellowstone)
Eric Dane (Euphoria)

Possibilities
Jacob Elordi (Euphoria)
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Mark Duplass (The Morning Show)
Steve Carell (The Morning Show) — podcast
Ken Watanabe (Tokyo Vice)
Owen Wilson (Loki)
Mandy Patinkin (The Good Fight)
Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses) — podcast
Rupert Grint (Servant)
Bill Nighy (The Man Who Fell to Earth)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jung Ho-yeon (Squid Game) — podcast
Sarah Snook (Succession)
Julia Garner (Ozark) — podcast
J. Cameron Smith (Succession)
Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets)
Patricia Arquette (Severance)
Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria)
Maude Apatow (Euphoria)

Major Threats
Hunter Schafer (Euphoria)
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Sadie Sink (Stranger Things)
Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
Kelsey Asbille (Yellowstone)
Julianna Margulies (The Morning Show)
Kim Joo-ryung (Squid Game)
Lisa Emery (Ozark)
Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
Susan Kelechi Watson (This Is Us)
Yuh-Jung Youn (Pachinko)

Possibilities
Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton)
Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)
Sally Field (Winning Time) — podcast
Melissa McCarthy (Nine Perfect Strangers) — podcast
Regina Hall (Nine Perfect Strangers)
Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age)
Denée Benton (The Gilded Age)
Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve)
Sophia Di Martino (Loki)
Audra McDonald (The Good Fight)

*BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Bill Hader (Barry)
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
Nicholas Hoult (The Great)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
Ricky Gervais (After Life) — podcast

Major Threats
Don Cheadle (Black Monday)
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
Jake Johnson (Minx)
Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows)
Kayvan Novak (What We Do in the Shadows)
Sam Richardson (The Afterparty)
Drew Tarver (The Other Two)

Possibilities
Dave Burd (Dave)
Jeremy Renner (Hawkeye)
John Cena (Peacemaker)
Rhys Darby (Our Flag Means Death)
Keegan-Michael Key (Schmigadoon)
Mike Myers (The Pentaverate) — podcast
Ralph Macchio (Cobra Kai)
William Zabka (Cobra Kai)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jean Smart (Hacks)
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
Issa Rae (Insecure)
Elle Fanning (The Great) — podcast
Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)
Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll)
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)

Major Threats
Sandra Oh (The Chair) — podcast
Sarah Lancashire (Julia)
Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) — podcast
Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
Tiffany Haddish (The Afterparty)
Robin Thede (A Black Lady Sketch Show) — podcast
Natasia Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows)

Possibilities
Rose Byrne (Physical)
Sarah Jessica Parker (And Just Like That)
Maya Erskine (Pen15)
Anna Konkle (Pen15)
Lily Collins (Emily in Paris) — podcast
Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson) — podcast
Hailee Steinfeld (Hawkeye) — podcast
Cecily Strong (Schmigdaoon)
Amy Schumer (Life and Beth) — podcast
Courteney Cox (Shining Vale) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)
Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)
Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Major Threats
Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)
Brendan Hunt (Ted Lasso)
Phil Dunster (Ted Lasso)
Jeremy Swift (Ted Lasso)
LaKeith Stanfield (Atlanta)
Harvey Guillen (What We Do in the Shadows)
David Hyde Pierce (Julia)
Ben Schwartz (The Afterparty)
Ike Barinholtz (The Afterparty)
Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks)
Stephen Root (Barry)

Possibilities
Vincent D’Onofrio (Hawkeye)
Charlie Barnett (Russian Doll)
Taika Waititi (Our Flag Means Death)
Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
Jay Duplass (The Chair)
Michael Zegen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Pete Davidson (Saturday Night Live)
Lucas Bravo (Emily in Paris)
Lucien Laviscount (Emily in Paris)
Brandon Scott Jones (Ghosts)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Yvonne Orji (Insecure)
Sarah Goldberg (Barry)
Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)

Major Threats
Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
Lisa Ann Walter (Abbott Elementary)
Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
Amy Ryan (Only Murders in the Building)
Rosie Perez (The Flight Attendant)
Jane Lynch (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Molly Shannon (The Other Two)
Zoe Chao (The Afterparty)
Ilana Glazer (The Afterparty)
Phoebe Fox (The Great)

Possibilities
Meg Stalter (Hacks)
Holland Taylor (The Chair)
Florence Pugh (Hawkeye) — podcast
Vera Farmiga (Hawkeye)
Cynthia Nixon (And Just Like That)
Kristin Davis (And Just Like That)
Kristin Chenoweth (Schmigadoon)
Ariana DeBose (Schmigadoon)
Chloe Sevigny (Russian Doll)
Annie Murphy (Russian Doll)
Ashley Park (Emily in Paris)
Zosia Mamet (The Flight Attendant)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Michael Keaton (Dopesick) — podcast
Colin Firth (The Staircase)
Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven) — podcast
Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy)
Oscar Isaac (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast

Major Threats
Sam Elliott (1883) — podcast
Sean Penn (Gaslit)
Ben Foster (The Survivor)
Samuel L. Jackson (The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey) — podcast
Paul Bettany (A Very British Scandal)
Jon Bernthal (We Own This City)
Himesh Patel (Station Eleven)
Jared Leto (WeCrashed) — podcast
Miles Teller (The Offer) — podcast
Tom Hiddleston (The Essex Serpent) — podcast
Oscar Isaac (Moon Knight) — podcast

Possibilities
David Thewlis (Landscapers)
Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan: The Movie)
William Jackson Harper (Love Life)
Joshua Jackson (Dr. Death)
Hamish Linklater (Midnight Mass)
Ben Whishaw (This Is Going to Hurt)
Will Poulter (Why Didn’t They Ask Evans?)
Stephen Graham (Help)
Finn Wittwrock (American Horror Story: Double Feature)
Sean Bean (Time)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) — podcast
Margaret Qualley (Maid) — podcast
Julia Garner (Inventing Anna) — podcast
Julia Roberts (Gaslit) — podcast
Jessica Chastain (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast

Major Threats
Isabel May (1883) — podcast
Claire Foy (A Very British Scandal) — podcast
Lily James (Pam and Tommy) — podcast
Elle Fanning (The Girl from Plainville) — podcast
Mackenzie Davis (Station Eleven)
Wunmi Mosaku (We Own This City)
Olivia Colman (Landscapers) — podcast
Anne Hathaway (WeCrashed)
Jenna Ortega (The Fallout)
Jessica Biel (Candy) — podcast
Emmy Rossum (Angelyne)

Possibilities
Lily James (The Pursuit of Love) — podcast
Jodie Comer (Help) — podcast
Claire Danes (The Essex Serpent) — podcast
Kate Siegel (Midnight Mass)
Renee Zellweger (The Thing About Pam) — podcast
Beanie Feldstein (Impeachment: American Crime Story)
Sarah Paulson (Impeachment: American Crime Story) — podcast
Adrienne Warren (Women of the Movement)
Lucy Boynton (Why Didn’t They Ask Evans?)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Murray Bartlett (The White Lotus)
Peter Sarsgaard (Dopesick)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Dopesick)
Will Poulter (Dopesick)
Naveen Andrews (The Dropout)
Tim McGraw (1883)

Major Threats
Jake Lacy (The White Lotus)
Matthew Goode (The Offer)
Seth Rogen (Pam and Tommy) — podcast
Nick Robinson (Maid)
Wyatt Russell (Under the Banner of Heaven)
Arian Moayed (Inventing Anna)
Anders Holm (Inventing Anna)
Dan Stevens (Gaslit)
Shea Whigham (Gaslit)
Michael Stuhlbarg (The Staircase)
Colton Ryan (The Girl from Plainville)

Possibilities
Sam Waterston (The Dropout) — podcast
William H. Macy (The Dropout)
Christian Slater (Dr. Death)
Kelsey Grammer (Dr. Death)
Ethan Hawke (Moon Knight) — podcast
Glynn Turman (Women of the Movement)
O-T Fagbenle (WeCrashed)
Kyle Marvin (WeCrashed)
Zach Gilford (Midnight Mass)
Dan Fogler (The Offer)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Andie MacDowell (Maid)
Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick) — podcast
Connie Britton (The White Lotus)
Toni Collette (The Staircase)
Alexandra Daddario (The White Lotus)

Major Threats
Daisy Edgar-Jones (Under the Banner of Heaven)
Faith Hill (1883)
Betty Gilpin (Gaslit)
Anika Noni Rose (Maid)
Sydney Sweeney (The White Lotus)
Laurie Metcalf (The Dropout)
Rosario Dawson (Dopesick)
Phillipa Soo (Dopesick)
Anna Chlumsky (Inventing Anna)
Dominique Fishback (The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey)
Chloe Sevigny (The Girl from Plainville)
Juno Temple (The Offer)
Vicky Krieps (The Survivor)
Matilda Lawler (Station Eleven)

Possibilities
May Calamawy (Moon Knight)
Alexis Floyd (Inventing Anna)
Laverne Cox (Inventing Anna)
Katie Lowes (Inventing Anna)
Taylor Schilling (Pam and Tommy)
Melanie Lynskey (Candy)
America Ferrera (WeCrashed)
AnnaSophia Robb (Dr. Death)
Grace Gummer (Dr. Death)
Edie Falco (Impeachment: American Crime Story)
Margo Martindale (Impeachment: American Crime Story)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES*

Frontrunners
The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)
jeen-yuhs (Netflix)
We Need to Talk About Cosby
(Showtime)
The Andy Warhol Diaries
(Netflix)
The New York Times Presents: Controlling Britney Spears
(FX)

Major Threats
Music Box
(HBO)
Catch and Kill: The Podcast Tapes
(HBO)
Not So Pretty
(HBO Max)
Welcome to Earth
(Nat Geo)
They Call Me Magic
(Apple)
McCartney 3, 2, 1
(Hulu)
Our Great National Parks
(Netflix)

Possibilities
The Big Conn (Apple)
Sketchbook (Disney+)
NYC Epicenters 9/11-2021 1/2 (HBO)
The Way Down: God, Greed and the Cult of Gwen Shamblin (HBO Max)
The Invisible Pilot (HBO)
100 Foot Wave (HBO)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SPECIAL*

Frontrunners
Lucy and Desi (Amazon)
We Feed People (Nat Geo) — podcast (José Andrés)
Downfall (Netflix)
The Tinder Swindler (Netflix)
Wolfgang
(Disney+)

Major Threats
Insecure: The End
(HBO)
Sheryl
(Showtime)
What Happened, Brittany Murphy?
(HBO Max)
Nuclear Family (HBO)
A Man Named Scott (Amazon)
Gaming Wall St. (HBO Max)
Polar Bear (Disney+)
14 Peaks (Netflix)

Possibilities
Murdered and Missing in Montana (Oxygen)
The Super Bob Einstein Film (HBO)
Beanie Mania (HBO Max)
9/11: Inside the President’s War Room (Apple)
Tony Hawk: Until the Wheels Fall Off (HBO)
Olivia Rodrigo: Driving Home 2 U (Disney+)
Happier Than Ever: A Love Letter to Los Angeles (Disney+)

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