Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Read of the Oscar Race, Post-Telluride and Pre-Toronto Fests

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage Scott Feinberg, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Oppenheimer (Universal)
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
Poor Things (Searchlight)
The Zone of Interest (A24)
Past Lives (A24)
Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
The Holdovers (Focus)
Nyad (Netflix)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)

Major Threats
Air (Amazon)
May December (Netflix)
Fair Play (Netflix)
All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
Rustin (Netflix)
Saltburn (Amazon)
The Taste of Things (IFC)
Golda (Bleecker Street)

Can’t Yet Call
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
Ferrari (Neon)
Flora and Son (Apple)
The Iron Claw (A24)
The Killer (Netflix)
Maestro (Netflix)
Napoleon (Apple/Sony)
Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)
Priscilla (A24)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Major Threats
Celine Song (Past Lives)
Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
Jimmy Chin & Chai Vasarhelyi (Nyad)
Ben Affleck (Air) — podcast
Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers & Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse)
Chloe Domont (Fair Play)
Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
Anh Hung Tran (The Taste of Things)
George C. Wolfe (Rustin)

Can’t Yet Call
Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)
Garth Davis (Foe)
Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)
David Fincher (The Killer)
Craig Gillespie (Dumb Money)
Michael Mann (Ferrari)
Ridley Scott (Napoleon)
Taika Waititi (Next Goal Wins)
Roger Ross Williams (Cassandro) — podcast

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Matt Damon (Air)

Major Threats
Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)
Alden Ehrenreich (Fair Play)
Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
Benoît Magimel (The Taste of Things)
Taron Egerton (Tetris) — podcast

Can’t Yet Call
Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)
Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast
Timothée Chalamet (Wonka) — podcast
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Paul Dano (Dumb Money)
Adam Driver (Ferrari)
Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)
Michael Fassbender (The Killer)
Michael Fassbender (Next Goal Wins)
Paul Mescal (Foe)
Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Major Threats
Greta Lee (Past Lives)
Phoebe Dynevor (Fair Play)
Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)
Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)
Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders) — podcast

Can’t Yet Call
Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
Jessica Chastain (Mother’s Instinct) — podcast
Eve Hewson (Flora and Son)
Trace Lysette (Monica)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
Saoirse Ronan (Foe) — podcast
Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Major Threats
Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
John Magaro (Past Lives)
Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)
Charles Melton (May December)
Rhys Ifans (Nyad)
Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Eddie Marsan (Fair Play)
Chris Messina (Air)
Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)
Jamie Bell (All of Us Strangers)
Jacob Elordi (Saltburn)
Richard E. Grant (Saltburn) — podcast
Tom Hardy (The Bikeriders)

Can’t Yet Call
Colman Domingo (The Color Purple)
Corey Hawkins (The Color Purple) — podcast
Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
Nick Offerman (Dumb Money)
Tahar Rahim (Napoleon)
Seth Rogen (Dumb Money) — podcast
Sebastian Stan (Dumb Money)
Jeremy Allen White (The Iron Claw)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
Julianne Moore (May December)
Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast

Major Threats
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Viola Davis (Air)
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
Florence Pugh (Oppenheimer) — podcast
Alison Oliver (Saltburn)
Rhea Perlman (Barbie)

Can’t Yet Call
Halle Bailey (The Color Purple)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Patricia Clarkson (Monica) — podcast
Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
H.E.R. (The Color Purple) — podcast
Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
Lily James (The Iron Claw) — podcast
Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon)
Tilda Swinton (The Killer)
Maura Tierney (The Iron Claw)
Shailene Woodley (Ferrari)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Major Threats
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & Chris Miller)
All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
Nyad (Julia Cox)
The Bikeriders (Jeff Nichols)

Can’t Yet Call
The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo & Lauren Schuker Blum)
Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin & Brock Yates)
Foe (Garth Davis & Iain Reid)
The Killer (Alexis Nolent & Kevin Walker)
Next Goal Wins (Iain Morris & Taika Waititi)
Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Past Lives (Celine Song)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
The Teacher’s Lounge (İlker Çatak & Johannes Duncker)

Major Threats
Air (Alex Convery)
May December (Sam Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
Rustin (Dustin Lance Black & Julian Breece)
Asteroid City (Wes Anderson)

Can’t Yet Call
Cassandro (David Teague & Roger Ross Williams) — podcast (Williams)
Flora and Son (John Carney)
The Iron Claw (Sean Durkin)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
Monica (Andrea Pallaoro & Orlando Tirado)
Napoleon (David Scarpa)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Kokomo City (Magnolia)
The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
The Eternal Memory (MTV)
The Mission (Nat Geo)

Major Threats
Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
Still (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
BS High (HBO) — podcast (Travon Free)
Every Body (Focus)
King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The League (Magnolia)

Can’t Yet Call
20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
aka Mr. Chow (still seeking U.S. distribution)
American Symphony (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
Black Ice (Lionsgate)
Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Zeitgeist Films/Kino Lorber)
The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
Mountain Queen (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBC)
Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
Stephen Curry: Underrated (Apple)
To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
While We Watched (PBS)
Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)
Nimona (Netflix)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)

Major Threats
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)

Can’t Yet Call
The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Leo (Netflix)
Migration (Illumination)
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)
Wish (Disney)

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