Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Race Standings Post-Globe and Critics Choice Noms

Scott Feinberg
·14 min read
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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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More from The Hollywood Reporter

Best Picture

Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
4. Poor Things (Searchlight)
5. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
6. Maestro (Netflix)
7. Past Lives (A24)
8. The Holdovers (Focus)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
10. The Zone of Interest (A24)

Major Threats
11. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
12. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
13. May December (Netflix)
14. Air (Amazon/MGM)
15. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
16. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)

Possibilities
17. Rustin (Netflix)
18. The Iron Claw (A24)
19. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)
20. Origin (Neon)
21. Ferrari (Neon)
22. Priscilla (A24)

Best Director

Frontrunners
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Major Threats
6. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
7. Celine Song (Past Lives)
8. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
9. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
10. Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
11. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Possibilities
12. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
13. Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
14. Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
15. Ava DuVernay (Origin)
16. Michael Mann (Ferrari)
17. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron)

Best Actor

Frontrunners
1. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
3. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
4. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Major Threats
6. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
9. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
10. Matt Damon (Air)
11. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast

Possibilities
12. Franz Rogowski (Passages)
13. Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)
14. Adam Driver (Ferrari) — podcast
15. Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)
16. Michael Fassbender (The Killer)
17. Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)

Best Actress

Frontrunners
1. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
5. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Major Threats
6. Greta Lee (Past Lives)
7. Annette Bening (Nyad)
8. Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
9. Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
10. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
11. Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast

Possibilities
12. Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves)
13. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
14. Jessica Chastain (Memory) — podcast
15. Eve Hewson (Flora and Son)
16. Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)
17. Trace Lysette (Monica)
18. Thomasin McKenzie (Eileen) — podcast

Best Supporting Actor

Frontrunners
1. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
2. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
4. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
5. Charles Melton (May December)

Major Threats
6. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
7. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
8. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
9. Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)
10. Chris Messina (Air)

Possibilities
11. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
12. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
13. Ben Whishaw (Passages)
14. John Magaro (Past Lives)
15. Peter Sarsgaard (Memory)

Best Supporting Actress

Frontrunners
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
3. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
4. Julianne Moore (May December)
5. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast

Major Threats
6. America Ferrera (Barbie)
7. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast
8. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
9. Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
10. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)

Possibilities
11. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
12. Viola Davis (Air)
13. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
14. Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)
15. Anne Hathaway (Eileen)
16. Patricia Clarkson (Monica) — podcast

Best Adapted Screenplay

Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
2. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
4. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
5. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)

Major Threats
6. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
7. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)
9. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)

Possibilities
10. The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
11. Monster (Yiju Sakamoto)
12. Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Schuker Blum)
13. Nyad (Julia Cox)
14. Ferrari (Troy Kennedy Martin)

Best Original Screenplay

Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
2. Past Lives (Celine Song)
3. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)
5. May December (Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik)

Major Threats
6. Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
7. Air (Alex Convery)
8. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
9. Origin (Ava DuVernay)

Possibilities
10. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)
11. Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
12. Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)
13. Flora and Son (John Carney)
14. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)

Best International Feature

Frontrunners
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. The Taste of Things (France)
3. Society of the Snow (Spain)
4. Four Daughters (Tunisia)
5. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)

Major Threats
6. Perfect Days (Japan)
7. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

Can’t Yet Call
Blaga’s Lessons (Bulgaria)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Shayda (Australia)
Io Capitano (Italy)
Godland (Iceland)
The Promised Land (Denmark)
In the Shadow of Beirut (Ireland)
About Dry Grasses (Turkey)
Thunder (Switzerland)
The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
Brothers (Czech Republic)
Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World (Romania)
Traces (Croatia)
Voy! Voy! Voy! (Egypt)
Sweet Dreams (Netherlands)

Best Documentary Feature

Frontrunners
1. American Symphony (Netflix)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
3. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
4. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
5. Kokomo City (Magnolia)

Rest of the Shortlist
6. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
7. The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
8. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
9. The Eternal Memory (MTV)
10. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
11. The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
12. The Mission (Nat Geo)
13. Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
14. Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
15. Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)

Possibilities
16. The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
17. Every Body (Focus)
18. Occupied City (A24)
19. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
20. King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)
21. The League (Magnolia)
22. Joan Baez: I Am a Noise (Magnolia)

Can’t Yet Call
32 Sounds (Abramorama)
Black Ice (Lionsgate)
A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Story (HBO)
Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)
In the Rearview (Film Movement)
In the Shadow of Beirut (Cyprus Avenue)
Judy Blume Forever (Amazon)
Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
The Mother of All Lies (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBC)
Smoke Sauna Sisterhood (Greenwich)
A Still Small Voice (Abramorama)
Uncharitable (Abramorama)
What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears? (Abramorama)
While We Watched (PBS)
Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)

Best Animated Feature

Frontrunners
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
4. Nimona (Netflix)
5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)

Major Threats
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)
7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
8. Leo (Netflix)
9. Wish (Disney)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)

Can’t Yet Call
Amazing Maurice (Viva)
Deep Sea (Viva)
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Migration (Illumination)
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)

Best Cinematography

Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
3. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
4. Barbie (Rodrigo Prieto)
5. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)

Major Threats
6. Saltburn (Linus Sandgren)
7. The Zone of Interest (Łukasz Żal)
8. The Color Purple (Dan Laustsen)
9. Society of the Snow (Pedro Luque)
10. Ferrari (Erik Messerschmidt)
11. Napoleon (Dariusz Wolski)
12. Past Lives (Shabier Kirchner)

Possibilities
13. May December (Christopher Blauvelt)
14. The Taste of Things (Jonathan Ricquebourg)
15. The Holdovers (Eigil Byrid)
16. All of Us Strangers (Jamie D. Ramsay)
17. Air (Robert Richardson)
18. The Killer (Erik Messerschmidt)
19. El Conde (Ed Lachman)

Best Costume Design

Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
4. The Color Purple (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)
5. Wonka (Lindy Hemming)

Major Threats
6. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
7. Priscilla (Stacey Battat)
8. Maestro (Mark Bridges)
9. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
10. The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood)
11. Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret (Ann Roth)

Possibilities
12. Ferrari (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
13. Asteroid City (Milena Canonero)
14. Saltburn (Sophie Canale)
15. Rustin (Toni-Leslie James)
16. Cassandro (María Estela Fernández)
17. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (Trish Summerville)

Best Fim Editing

Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
3. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
4. Barbie (Nick Houy)
5. Maestro (Michelle Tesoro)

Major Threats
6. Air (William Goldenberg)
7. Ferrari (Pietro Scalia)
8. American Fiction (Hilda Rasula)
9. Past Lives (Keith Fraase)
10. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
11. The Zone of Interest (Paul Watts)

Possibilities
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Michael Andrews)
13. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One (Eddie Hamilton)
14. The Color Purple (Jon Poll)
15. The Killer (Kirk Baxter)
16. May December (Affonso Gonçalves)
17. Origin (Spencer Averick)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Frontrunners
1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)
2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)
3. Barbie (Ivana Primorac)
4. Priscilla (Cliona Furey & Jo-Ann MacNeil)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & Thomas Nellen)

Rest of Shortlist
6. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)
7. The Color Purple (Lawrence Davis & Carol Rasheed)
8. Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas)
9. Nyad (Ana María Andrickson, Jandeira Avirón, Felicity Bowring, Corey Castellano, Vanessa Colombo, Daniel Curet, Julie Hewett, Ann-Maree Hurley, Maha Lessner)
10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Alexei Dmitriew & Cassie Russek)

Possibilities
11. Rustin (Melissa Forney & Beverly Jo Pryor)
12. Ferrari (Marcelle Genovese, Marco Pompei, Aldo Signoretti & Scott Wheeler)
13. The Little Mermaid (Camille Friend & Peter Smith King)
14. The Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)
15. The Iron Claw (Elle Favorule & Natalie Shea Rose)
16. Wonka (David Darby, John Nolan & Ivana Primorac)
17. Air (Luisa Abel & Carla Joi Farmer)
18. The Creator (Francesca van der Feyst)
19. Napoleon (Jana Carboni & Francesco Pegoretti)

Best Original Score

Frontrunners
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
2. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)
4. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
5. Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)

Rest of Shortlist
6. The Zone of Interest (Mica Levi)
7. The Boy and the Heron (Joe Hisaishi)
8. Elemental (Thomas Newman)
9. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
10. Society of the Snow (Michael Giacchino)
11. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
12. The Killer (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
13. Origin (Kris Bowers)
14. The Boys in the Boat (Alexandre Desplat)
15. Nyad (Alexandre Desplat)

Possibilities
16. Past Lives (Christopher Bear & Daniel Rossen)
17. Monster (Ryuichi Sakamoto)
18. Saltburn (Anthony Willis)
19. Wish (David Metzger)
20. Ferrari (Daniel Pemberton)
21. Rustin (Branford Marsalis)
22. The Pigeon Tunnel (Philip Glass & Paul Leonard-Morgan) — podcast (Glass)
24. A Haunting in Venice (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
25. The Creator (Hans Zimmer) — podcast
26. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Hans Zimmer) — podcast
27. Napoleon (Martin Phipps)
28. The Marvels (Laura Karpman)
29. All of Us Strangers (Emilie Levienaise-Farrouch)
30. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Brian Tyler)

Best Original Song

Frontrunners
1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcast
2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)
3. “Road to Freedom” (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz — podcast
4. “This Wish” (Wish), Julia Michaels & Benjamin Rice
5. “Peaches” (The Super Mario Bros. Move), Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond & John Spiker

Rest of Shortlist
6. “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
7. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren — podcast
8. “For the First Time” (The Little Mermaid), Alan Menken & Lin-Manuel Miranda — podcast (Miranda)
9. “Keep It Movin'” (The Color Purple), Denisia Andrews, Halle Bailey, Brittany Coney & Morten Ristorp
10. “Dance the Night” (Barbie), Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcasts (Lipa & Ronson)
11. “Addicted to Romance” (She Came to Me)
12. “Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), Dan Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo — podcast (Rodrigo)
13. “High Life” (Flora and Son), John Carney & Gary Clark
14. “Better Place” (Trolls Band Together), Amy Allen, Karl Schuster & Justin Timberlake — podcast (Timberlake)
15. “Camp Isn’t Home” (Theater Camp), Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt & Mark Sonnenblick — podcast (Platt)

Possibilities
16. “Am I Dreaming” (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse), Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Rakim Mayers, Landon Wayne & Leland Wayne
17. “Steal the Show” (Elemental), Ari Staprans “Lauv” Leff, Michael Matosic & Thomas Newman
18. “I Am” (Origin), Te Kanapu Anasta, Michael Fatkin, Vince Harder & Stan Walker
19. “A World of Your Own” (Wonka), Simon Farnabay, Neil Hannon & Paul King
20. “Superpower (I)” (The Color Purple), Terius Gesteelde-Diamant
21. “Out-Alpha the Alpha” (Dicks: The Musical), Megan Thee Stallion
22. “The Scuttlebutt” (The Little Mermaid), Alan Menken & Lin-Manuel Miranda — podcast (Miranda)
23. “Everything Is Gonna Be Alright” (Bobi Wine: The People’s President), Bobi Wine
24. “Wounded Heart” (Silver Dollar Road), Ondara
25. “Live That Way Forever” (The Iron Claw), Richard Reed & Laurel “Little Scream” Sprengelmeyer
26. “All Love Is Love” (Dicks: The Musical), Aaron Jackson & Josh Sharp
27. “Quiet Eyes” (Past Lives), Zach Dawes & Sharon Von Etten
28. “Gonna Be You” (80 for Brady), Diane Warren — podcast

Best Production Design

Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
2. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fish & Adam Willis)
4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)
5. Maestro (Rena DeAngelo & Kevin Thompson)

Major Threats
6. Saltburn (Suzie Davis & Charlotte Diricks)
7. Asteroid City (Kris Moran & Adam Stockhausen)
8. Wonka (Nathan Crowley & Lee Sandales)
9. The Color Purple (Paul D. Austerberry & Larry Dias)
10. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Arthur Max)
11. Ferrari (Maria Djurkovic & Sophie Phillips)
12. Society of the Snow (Alain Bainée & Angela Nahum)

Possibilites
13. The Zone of Interest (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & Katarzyna Sikora)
14. The Taste of Things (Toma Baqueni)
15. Anatomy of a Fall (Cécile Deleu & Emmanuelle Duplay)
16. Priscilla (Patricia Cuccia & Tamara Deverell)
17. Air (François Audouy & Jan Pascale)
18. May December (Sam Lisenco & Jess Royal)
19. Origin (Ina Mayhew & Jacqueline Jacobson Scarfo)
20. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Patrick O’Keefe)

Best Sound

Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)
2. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)
3. The Color Purple (Richard Bullock, Paul Massey, Steve Morrow, Julian Slater & Renee Tondelli)
4. Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O’Connell & Nina Rice)
5. Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson & Bernard Weiser)

Rest of Shortlist
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton & Mark Ulano)
7. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Juan Peralta, Geoffrey G. Rubay & Michael Semanick)
9. Poor Things (Johnnie Burn & Tamás Dévényi)
10. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Erik Aadahl, Ron Bartlett, Anna Behlmer, Simon Pidrette & Ethan Van Der Ryn)

Possibilities
11. Napoleon (Stephane Bucher, James Harrison, Paul Massey, William Miller & Oliver Tarney)
12. Wonka (Niv Adiri, Ben Barker, John Casali, Glenn Freemantle & Paul Massey)
13. The Creator (Erik Aadahl, Tom Ozanich, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt & Dean Zupancic)
14. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (David Acord, Christopher Boyes, Cheryl Nardi, Lee Orloff & Gary A. Rizzo)
15. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather & Chris Munro)
16. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Juan Peralta, Gary Rydstrom, Donald Sylvester & Stuart Wilson)
17. Wish (David E. Fluhr & Shannon Mills)
18. 32 Sounds (Mark A. Mangini)
19. The Deepest Breath (Will Chapman, Greg Gettens & Chad Orororo)

Best Visual Effects

Frontrunners
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2. Poor Things
3. The Creator
4. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One
5. Society of the Snow

Rest of Shortlist
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
7. Transformers: Rise of the Beats
8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
9. Rebel Moon: Part One — A Child of Fire
10. Wonka

Possibilities
11. The Marvels
12. Napoleon
13. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
14. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania
15. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
16. Barbie
17. Killers of the Flower Moon
18. Godzilla: Minus One
19. The Boys in the Boat
20. Nyad

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