Feinberg Forecast: Mid-Voting Emmy Projections

Scott Feinberg
·6 min read
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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and publicity campaigns, results of awards that precede the Emmys and the history of the Emmys itself.

*BEST DRAMA SERIES*

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Projected Order of Finish
Succession (HBO/HBO Max)
Severance (Apple TV+)
Squid Game (Netflix)
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
Ozark (Netflix)
Euphoria (HBO/HBO Max)

*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Hacks (HBO/HBO Max)
Barry (HBO/HBO Max)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/HBO Max)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
The White Lotus (HBO/HBO Max)
Dopesick (Hulu)
The Dropout (Hulu)
Inventing Anna (Netflix)
Pam & Tommy (Hulu)

*BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO/HBO Max)
The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast (Stephen Colbert)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast (Seth Meyers)

*BEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Saturday Night Live (NBC) — podcast (Lorne Michaels)
A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO) — podcast (Robin Thede)

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED)*

Projected Order of Finish
Dave Chappelle: The Closer (Netflix)
Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special (Netflix)
Adele One Night Only (CBS)
One Last Time: An Evening With Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga (CBS) — podcast (Lady Gaga)
Harry Potter 20th Anniversary: Return to Hogwarts (HBO/HBO Max)

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)*

Projected Order of Finish
Live in Front of a Studio Audience: The Facts of Life and Diff’rent Strokes (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel and Norman Lear)
The 64th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and 50 Cent (NBC) — podcast (Snoop Dogg)
The Tony Awards Present: Broadway’s Back! (CBS) — podcast (Leslie Odom, Jr.)
The Oscars (ABC) — podcast (Amy Schumer)

*BEST TV MOVIE*

Projected Order of Finish
Ray Donovan: The Movie (Showtime)
The Survivor (HBO/HBO Max)
Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers (Disney+)
Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon (Paramount+)
Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas (The Roku Channel)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+) — podcast (Peter Jackson)
We Need to Talk About Cosby (Showtime)
100 Foot Wave (HBO/HBO Max)
The Andy Warhol Diaries (Netflix)
Jeen-Yuhs: A Kanye Trilogy (Netflix)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SPECIAL*

Projected Order of Finish
We Feed People (Disney+) — podcast (José Andrés)
George Carlin’s American Dream (HBO/HBO Max) — podcast (Judd Apatow)
Controlling Britney Spears (New York Times Presents) (FX)
Lucy and Desi (Prime Video)
The Tinder Swindler (Netflix)

*BEST HOSTED NONFICTION SERIES OR SPECIAL*

Projected Order of Finish
The Problem With Jon Stewart (Apple TV+)
Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy (CNN)
My Next Guest Needs No Introduction With David Letterman (Netflix) — podcast (David Letterman)
The World According to Jeff Goldblum (Disney+)
Vice (Showtime)

*EXCEPTIONAL MERIT IN DOCUMENTARY FILMMAKING*

Projected Order of Finish
Changing the Game (Hulu)
When Claude Got Shot (PBS)
Frederick Douglass: In Five Speeches (HBO/HBO Max)

*BEST COMPETITION PROGRAM*

Projected Order of Finish
RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1) — podcast (RuPaul)
Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls (Prime Video) — podcast (Lizzo)
The Voice (NBC)
The Amazing Race (CBS)
Nailed It! (Netflix)
Top Chef (Bravo)

*BEST STRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected Order of Finish
Queer Eye (Netflix)
Shark Tank (ABC) — podcast (Mark Cuban)
Love Is Blind (Netflix)
Fixer Upper: Welcome Home (Magnolia Network)
Antiques Roadshow (PBS)

*BEST UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected Order of Finish
RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked (VH1) — podcast (RuPaul)
Cheer (Netflix)
Selling Sunset (Netflix)
Love on the Spectrum U.S. (Netflix)
Below Deck Mediterranean (Bravo)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game) — podcast
Jeremy Strong (Succession) — podcast
Brian Cox (Succession) — podcast
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Adam Scott (Severance)
Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast

*BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Zendaya (Euphoria) — podcast
Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
Laura Linney (Ozark)
Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show) — podcast
Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) — podcast
Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Oh Young-soo (Squid Game)
Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
Park Hae-soo (Squid Game) — podcast
John Turturro (Severance) — podcast
Christopher Walken (Severance)
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Julia Garner (Ozark) — podcast
Sarah Snook (Succession)
Patricia Arquette (Severance)
HoYeon Jung (Squid Game) — podcast
Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets)
J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)
Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria)

*BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Bill Hader (Barry) — podcast
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Nicholas Hoult (The Great)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — podcast
Jean Smart (Hacks)
Issa Rae (Insecure) — podcast
Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant) — podcast
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Elle Fanning (The Great) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)
Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Toheeb Jimoh (Ted Lasso)
Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Sarah Niles (Ted Lasso)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Order of Finish
Michael Keaton (Dopesick) — podcast
Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven) — podcast
Sebastian Stan (Pam & Tommy)
Oscar Isaac (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast
Colin Firth (The Staircase)
Himesh Patel (Station Eleven)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Order of Finish
Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) — podcast
Julia Garner (Inventing Anna) — podcast
Lily James (Pam & Tommy) — podcast
Sarah Paulson (Impeachment: American Crime Story) — podcast
Toni Collette (The Staircase)
Margaret Qualley (Maid) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Order of Finish
Murray Bartlett (The White Lotus)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Dopesick)
Will Poulter (Dopesick)
Peter Sarsgaard (Dopesick)
Jake Lacy (The White Lotus)
Steve Zahn (The White Lotus)
Seth Rogen (Pam & Tommy)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Order of Finish
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick) — podcast
Alexandra Daddario (The White Lotus)
Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus)
Connie Britton (The White Lotus)
Mare Winningham (Dopesick)
Sydney Sweeney (The White Lotus)

*BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Colman Domingo (Euphoria)
Tom Pelphrey (Ozark)
James Cromwell (Succession)
Alexander Skarsgard (Succession)
Arian Moayed (Succession)
Adrien Brody (Succession)

*BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Lee You-mi (Squid Game)
Harriet Walter (Succession)
Martha Kelly (Euphoria)
Marcia Gay Harden (The Morning Show)
Hope Davis (Succession)
Sanaa Lathan (Succession)

*BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Jerrod Carmichael (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Bill Hader (Curb Your Enthusiasm) — podcast
Nathan Lane (Only Murders in the Building)
Christopher McDonald (Hacks)
Sam Richardson (Ted Lasso)
James Lance (Ted Lasso)

*BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Order of Finish
Jane Lynch (Only Murders in the Building)
Laurie Metcalf (Hacks)
Kaitlin Olson (Hacks)
Harriet Sansom Harris (Hacks)
Jane Adams (Hacks)
Harriet Walter (Ted Lasso)

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