Feinberg Forecast: Last Snapshot of Oscar Race Before Nomination Voting

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

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Frontrunners
Belfast (Focus, Nov. 12, trailer) AFI*, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA
King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, SAG
Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Dune (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Netflix, Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, NBR

Possibilities
House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer) SAG
Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus, Nov. 24, trailer) LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC
Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer)
The Hand of God (Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer)
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, Dec. 10, trailer)
The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 17, trailer) FI, IFP
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony, Dec. 17, trailer)

Longer Shots
No Time to Die (MGM/UA, Oct. 8, trailer)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple, Dec. 25, trailer) AFI, NBR
Flee (Neon/Participant, Dec. 3, trailer)
C’mon C’mon (A24, Nov. 19, trailer) FI
Cyrano (MGM/UA, Feb. 25, 2022, trailer)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight, Oct. 22, trailer)
Last Night in Soho (Focus, Oct. 29, trailer)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) CCA, NBR
Denis Villeneuve (Dune) — podcast CCA, HFPA

Possibilities
Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley) — podcast CCA
Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers) — podcast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) NSFC
Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God)
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) FI, HFPA, IFP

Longer Shots
Sian Heder (CODA)
Julia Ducournau (Titane)
Asghar Farhadi (A Hero) — podcast
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast
Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos) — podcast
Ridley Scott (House of Gucci) — podcast
Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon) FI

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Will Smith (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)

Possibilities
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) HFPA, SAG
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) HFPA
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) IFP
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Nicolas Cage (Pig) — podcast CCA
Simon Rex (Red Rocket) — podcast FI, IFP, LAFCA

Longer Shots
Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car) NSFC
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza) HFPA
Adam Driver (House of Gucci) — podcast
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) — podcast HFPA
Daniel Craig (No Time to Die) — podcast
Ansel Elgort (West Side Story)
Riz Ahmed (Encounter)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) — podcast CCA, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) LAFCA, NSFC
Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — podcast CCA, HFPA

Possibilities
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Jennifer Hudson (Respect) SAG
Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
Emilia Jones (CODA)
Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Longer Shots
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) HFPA, NBR
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) CCA, HFPA
Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up) — podcast HFPA
Tessa Thompson (Passing) IFP
Jodie Comer (The Last Duel) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC, SAG
Troy Kotsur (CODA) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) SAG
Jamie Dornan (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) CCA, HFPA, NBR

Possibilities
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, SAG
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) — podcast HFPA, SAG
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) CCA
Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon)
Mark Rylance (Don’t Look Up)
Andrew Garfield (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

Longer Shots
Mike Faist (West Side Story)
David Alvarez (West Side Story)
Jonah Hill (Don’t Look Up)
Anders Danielsen Lie (The Worst Person in the World) NSFC
Robin de Jesus (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
Jon Bernthal (King Richard)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, SAG
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, SAG
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) CCA, HFPA, SAG
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) — podcast SAG
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR

Possibilities
Marlee Matlin (CODA) IFP
Ruth Negga (Passing) — podcast FI, HFPA, IFP, NSFC, SAG
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) FI, IFP
Rita Moreno (West Side Story) — podcast CCA
Judi Dench (Belfast) — podcast

Longer Shots
Gaby Hoffmann (C’mon C’mon) IFP
Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Nina Arianda (Being the Ricardos)
Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth) NYFCC
Anya Taylor-Joy (Last Night in Soho)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) CCA, HFPA, USC
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve) CCA, USC
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) CCA, FI, IFP, USC
West Side Story (Tony Kushner) CCA
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe) LAFCA, NSFC

Possibilities
Passing (Rebecca Hall) IFP, USC
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) NBR, USC
CODA (Sian Heder) CCA
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)
The Tender Bar (William Monahan)
House of Gucci (Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)

Longer Shots
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Steven Levenson)
Cyrano (Erica Schmidt)
The Last Duel (Ben Affleck, Matt Damon & Nicole Holofcener)
The Green Knight (David Lowery) FI
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Chris McKenna and Erik Sommers)
In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) CCA, HFPA
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) CCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay) CCA, HFPA
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast

Possibilities
King Richard (Zach Baylin) CCA
C’mon Cmon (Mike Mills) FI
The Hand of God (Paolo Sorrentino)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)
Last Night in Soho (Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)
A Hero (Asghar Farhadi) — podcast NBR

Longer Shots
The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt)
The Card Counter (Paul Schrader) IFP
Zola (Janicza Bravo & Jeremy O. Harris) FI
Red Rocket (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker) IFP
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)
Titane (Julia Ducournau)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Encanto (Disney) ANN, CCA, HFPA, NBR
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Netflix) ANN, CCA, NYFCC
Flee (Neon/Participant) ANN, CCA, HFPA, LAFCA
Luca (Pixar) ANN, CCA, HFPA
Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) ANN, CCA, HFPA

Possibilities
Sing 2 (Illumination/Universal) ANN
Belle (GKIDS) ANN
My Sunny Maad (Negativ) HFPA
Vivo (Netflix)

Longer Shots
The Summit of the Gods (Netflix) ANN
Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko (GKIDS) ANN
Pompo: The Cinephile (GKIDS) ANN

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Summer of Soul (Hulu/Searchlight) AFI*, CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, LAFCA, NBR, PGA
Flee (Neon/Participant) CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, NBR, NSFC, NYFCC, PGA
Ascension (MTV) CCA, CEH, FI, IFP, NBR, PGA
Attica (Showtime) CCA, NBR
The Rescue (Nat Geo) CCA, CEH, NBR, PGA

Possibilities
Simple as Water (HBO) PGA
The Velvet Underground (Apple) — podcast (Todd Haynes) CEH
Procession (Netflix) CCA, FI
The First Wave (Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman) PGA
Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (Apple)

Longer Shots
In the Same Breath (HBO) FI, IDA, PGA
Writing With Fire (Music Box) IDA, PGA
Faya Dayi (Janus Films) CEH, IDA, IFP
President (Greenwich) IFP
Julia (Sony Classics)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Drive My Car (Japan) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP
The Hand of God (Italy) CCA, HFPA
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) CCA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC
A Hero (Iran) — podcast (Asghar Farhadi) CCA, HFPA, NBR
Flee (Denmark) CCA

Possibilities
Compartment No. 6 (Finland) FI, HFPA
Great Freedom (Austria)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) FI
Lamb (Iceland) NBR
I’m Your Man (Germany)

Longer Shots
The Good Boss (Spain)
Playground (Belgium)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
Hive (Kosovo)
Plaza Catedral (Panama)

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

Frontrunners
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski) CCA, NYFCC
Dune (Greig Fraser) CCA, CI
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner) CCA, LAFCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel) CCA, CI, NBR
Belfast (Haris Zambarloukos) CCA

Possibilities
Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen) CCA
No Time to Die (Linus Sandgren)
C’mon C’mon (Robbie Ryan) CI
Cyrano (Seamus McGarvey)
The Green Knight (Andrew Droz Palermo) NSFC
Don’t Look Up (Linus Sandgren)
Last Night in Soho (Chung Chung-hoon)
The French Dispatch (Robert Yeoman)
The Last Duel (Dariusz Wolski)
House of Gucci (Dariusz Wolski)

Longer Shots
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson & Michael Bauman)
Passing (Edu Grau) FI
Drive My Car (Hidetoshi Shinomiya)
Spencer (Claire Mathon)
King Richard (Robert Elswit)
Titane (Ruben Impens)
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Alice Brooks)
Being the Ricardos (Jeff Cronenweth)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Mauro Fiore)

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

Frontrunners
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell) CCA
Dune (Robert Morgan & Jacqueline West) CCA
Cruella (Jenny Beavan) CCA
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira) CCA
The French Dispatch (Milena Canonero)

Possibilities
Licorice Pizza (Mark Bridges)
Coming 2 America (Ruth E. Carter)
House of Gucci (Janty Yates) CCA
Spencer (Jacqueline Durran)
Last Night in Soho (Odile Dicks-Mireaux)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini)

Longer Shots
Belfast (Charlotte Walker)
The Power of the Dog (Kirsty Cameron)
Mothering Sunday (Sandy Powell)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Mary Zophres)
Being the Ricardos (Susan Lyall)
Passing (Marci Rodgers)

*BEST FILM EDITING*

Frontrunners
Dune (Joe Walker) CCA
West Side Story (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn) CCA
Belfast (Una Ni Dhonghaile) CCA
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras) CCA
No Time to Die (Tom Cross & Elliot Graham)

Possibilities
Summer of Soul (Joshua L. Pearson) LAFCA
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Leigh Folsom & Jeffrey Ford)
Licorice Pizza (Andy Jurgensen)
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum)
The Lost Daughter (Affonso Gonçalves)
The Hand of God (Cristiano Travaglioli)
The French Dispatch (Andrew Weisblum)

Longer Shots
CODA (Geraud Brisson)
House of Gucci (Claire Simpson)
King Richard (Pamela Martin)
Being the Ricardos (Alan Baumgarten) CCA
Nightmare Alley (Cam McLauchlin)
Last Night in Soho (Paul Machliss)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen & Lucian Johnston)
Titane (Jean-Christophe Bouzy)

*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*

Frontrunners
Dune CCA, MUHS
West Side Story MUHS
Cruella CCA, MUHS
The Eyes of Tammy Faye CCA, MUHS
No Time to Die MUHS

Possibilities
House of Gucci CCA, MUHS
Nightmare Alley CCA
Coming 2 America MUHS
The Suicide Squad MUHS
Cyrano

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Frontrunners
Dune (Hans Zimmer) CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood) CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
The French Dispatch (Alexandre Desplat) HFPA, HMMA, SCL
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell) CCA, HMMA, SCL
King Richard (Kris Bowers) HMMA

Possibilities
No Time to Die (Hans Zimmer) HMMA
Spencer (Jonny Greenwood) CCA, SCL
Encanto (Germaine Franco) HFPA, SCL
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias) HFPA, HMMA, LAFCA, SCL
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel)

Longer Shots
The Last Duel (Harry Gregson-Williams) HMMA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Carter Burwell) HMMA
The Green Knight (Daniel Hart) SCL
Being the Ricardos (Daniel Pemberton)
Candyman (Robert A.A. Lowe)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die) — podcast CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King (Respect) HFPA, HMMA, SCL
“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall) CCA, HMMA, SCL
“Just Look Up” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Taura Stinson (Don’t Look Up) CCA, HMMA, SCL
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)

Possibilities
“Your Song Saved My Life” — Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen Jr. (Sing 2) — podcast [Bono & The Edge] HMMA
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast) HFPA, HMMA
“Automatic Woman” — H.E.R., Van Hun & Starrah (Bruised) — podcast
“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto) — podcast CCA, HFPA

Longer Shots
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days) — podcast HMMA, SCL
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries (CODA) HMMA
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg (Dear Evan Hansen)
“Dream Girl” — Idina Menzel & Laura Veltz (Cinderella)
“Right Where I Belong” — Brian Wilson & Jim James (Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road) HMMA

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

Frontrunners
Dune (Zsuzsanna Sipos & Patrice Vermette) CCA
West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) CCA
Belfast (Jim Clay & Claire Nina Richards) CCA
The French Dispatch (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) CCA
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau) CCA

Possibilities
Cruella (Fiona Crumbie & Alice Felton)
Cyrano (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
The Power of the Dog (Grant Major & Amber Richards)
Licorice Pizza (Florencia Martin & Ryan Watson)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh)
Last Night in Soho (Victoria Allwood, Judy Farr & Emily Norris)

Longer Shots
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sam Avila & Darren Gilford)
Being the Ricardos (Ellen Brill & Jon Hutman)
Spencer (Guy Hendrix-Dyas & Yesim Zolan)
House of Gucci (Arthur Max & Letizia Santucci)
The Last Duel (Judy Farr & Arthur Max)
Passing (Nora Mendis & Paige Mitchell)

*BEST SOUND*

Frontrunners
West Side Story
Dune
No Time to Die
Belfast
Tick, Tick… Boom!

Possibilities
Spider-Man: No Way Home
A Quiet Place Part II
The Power of the Dog
Last Night in Soho
The Matrix Resurrections

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Frontrunners
Dune CCA, VES
No Time to Die CCA
The Matrix Resurrections CCA, VES
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings CCA, VES
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Possibilities
Godzilla vs. Kong VES
Eternals
Black Widow
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Free Guy

*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*

Shortlist (alphabetical)
Affairs of the Art
Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice
Bad Seeds
Bestia ANN
Boxballet
Flowing Home
Mum Is Pouring Rain
The Musician
Namoo
Only a Child
Robin Robin
Souvenir Souvenir
Step Into the River
Us Again
The Windshield Wiper

*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*

Shortlist (alphabetical)
Águilas
Audible
A Broken House
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker
Day of Rage
The Facility
Lead Me Home
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”
The Queen of Basketball
Sophie & the Baron
Takeover
Terror Contagion
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies

*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*

Shortlist (alphabetical)
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
Censor of Dreams
The Criminals
Distances
The Dress
Frimas
Les Grandes Claques
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Stenofonen
Tala’vision
Under the Heavens
When the Sun Sets
You’re Dead Helen

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