Feinberg Forecast: First Read of Emmys Race

·11 min read

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Emmys and the history of the Emmys itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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Frontrunners
Succession (HBO)
Squid Game (Netflix)
Ozark (Netflix)
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
Yellowstone (Paramount)
Winning Time (HBO)
Euphoria (HBO)

Major Threats
This Is Us
(NBC)
Severance
(Apple)
Yellowjackets
(Showtime)
Bridgerton (Netflix)
The Morning Show
(Apple)
Pachinko
 (Apple)
Tokyo Vice (HBO Max)

Possibilities
Killing Eve
(BBC America)
Loki (Disney+)
The Gilded Age
(HBO)
Mayor of Kingstown (Paramount+)
Evil (CBS)
The Good Fight (Paramount+)
Law and Order (NBC)
As We See It (Amazon)

*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Ted Lasso (Apple)
Hacks
(HBO Max)
Barry
 (HBO)
Atlanta (FX)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Major Threats
The Great (Hulu)
Reservation Dogs (FX)
The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
Russian Doll (Netflix)
The Afterparty (Apple)
Emily in Paris (Netflix)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Insecure (HBO)
Pen15 (Hulu)
Better Things (FX)
Schmigadoon (Apple)
The Chair (Netflix)

Possibilities
And Just Like That… (HBO Max)
Peacemaker (HBO Max)
Minx (HBO Max)
Julia (HBO Max)
The Other Two (HBO Max)
Black-ish (ABC)
Grace and Frankie (Netflix)
Dave (FXX)
Our Flag Means Death (HBO Max)
Ghosts (CBS)
The Pentaverate (Netflix)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES*

Frontrunners
The Staircase (HBO Max)
The White Lotus (HBO)
Dopesick (Hulu)
The Dropout (Hulu)
Maid (Netflix)

Major Threats
Inventing Anna (Netflix)
1883 (Paramount+)
Gaslit (Starz)
Under the Banner of Heaven (FX on Hulu)
We Own This City (HBO)
Scenes from a Marriage (HBO)
Station Eleven (HBO Max)
Pam and Tommy (Hulu)
A Very British Scandal (Amazon)
The Girl from Plainville
(Hulu)

Possibilities
Moon Knight (Disney+)
The Offer
(Paramount+)
WeCrashed (Apple)
The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey (Apple)
The Pursuit of Love (Amazon)
Impeachment: American Crime Story (FX)
Candy
(Hulu)
Midnight Mass
(Netflix)
The Essex Serpent (Apple)
Why Didn’t They Ask Evans? (BritBox)
The Hot Zone: Anthrax (Nat Geo)
The Thing About Pam (NBC)
Time (BritBox)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game) — podcast
Jeremy Strong (Succession) — podcast
Brian Cox (Succession) — podcast
Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast
Kevin Costner (Yellowstone)
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast

Major Threats
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Adam Scott (Severance)
John C. Reilly (Winning Time)
Quincy Isaiah (Winning Time)
Lee Min-Ho (Pachinko)
Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — podcast
Josh Brolin (Outer Range)
Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) — podcast
Justin Hartley (This Is Us)
Jeremy Renner (Mayor of Kingstown)

Possibilities
Ansel Elgort (Tokyo Vice)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (The Man Who Fell to Earth)
Sam Heughan (Outlander)
Tom Hiddleston (Loki) — podcast
Jonathan Bailey (Bridgerton)
Morgan Spector (The Gilded Age)
Jamie Dornan (The Tourist) — podcast
Sam Waterston (Law & Order) — podcast
Michael C. Hall (Dexter: New Blood)
Patrick Stewart (Star Trek: Picard)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Zendaya (Euphoria) — podcast
Laura Linney (Ozark)
Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
Kelly Reilly (Yellowstone)
Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) — podcast

Major Threats
Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) — podcast
Britt Lower (Severance)
Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age)
Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)
Elisabeth Moss (Shining Girls) — podcast
Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)
Juliette Lewis (Yellowjackets)

Possibilities
Minha Kim (Pachinko)
Nicole Kidman (Nine Perfect Strangers) — podcast
Caitriona Balfe (Outlander) — podcast
Katja Herbers (Evil)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses)
Simone Ashley (Bridgerton)
Rosamund Pike (The Wheels of Time) — podcast
Imogen Poots (Outer Range)
Elodie Yung (The Cleaning Lady)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
Alan Ruck (Succession)
Oh Young-soo (Squid Game)
Park Hae-soo (Squid Game) — podcast
Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) — podcast

Major Threats
John Turturro (Severance) — podcast
Christopher Walken (Severance)
David Harbour (Stranger Things)
Adrien Brody (Winning Time)
Chris Sullivan (This Is Us)
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Mark Duplass (The Morning Show)
Eric Dane (Euphoria)
Jacob Elordi (Euphoria)
Ken Watanabe (Tokyo Vice)

Possibilities
Steve Carell (The Morning Show) — podcast
Owen Wilson (Loki)
Mandy Patinkin (The Good Fight)
Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses) — podcast
Rupert Grint (Servant)
Cole Hauser (Yellowstone)
Luke Grimes (Yellowstone)
Gil Birmingham (Yellowstone)
Bill Nighy (The Man Who Fell to Earth)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jung Ho-yeon (Squid Game) — podcast
Sarah Snook (Succession)
Julia Garner (Ozark) — podcast
J. Cameron Smith (Succession)
Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets)
Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria)
Maude Apatow (Euphoria)
Hunter Schafer (Euphoria)

Major Threats
Patricia Arquette (Severance)
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
Julianna Margulies (The Morning Show)
Kim Joo-ryung (Squid Game)
Lisa Emery (Ozark)
Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
Susan Kelechi Watson (This Is Us)
Yuh-Jung Youn (Pachinko)

Possibilities
Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton)
Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)
Sally Field (Winning Time) — podcast
Melissa McCarthy (Nine Perfect Strangers) — podcast
Regina Hall (Nine Perfect Strangers)
Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age)
Denee Benton (The Gilded Age)
Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve)
Sophia Di Martino (Loki)
Audra McDonald (The Good Fight)
Christine Lahti (Evil)
Andrea Martin (Evil) — podcast

*BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Bill Hader (Barry)
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
Nicholas Hoult (The Great)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
Ricky Gervais (After Life) — podcast

Major Threats
Don Cheadle (Black Monday)
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
Jake Johnson (Minx)
Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows)
Kayvan Novak (What We Do in the Shadows)
Sam Richardson (The Afterparty)

Possibilities
Drew Tarver (The Other Two)
Dave Burd (Dave)
John Cena (Peacemaker)
Rhys Darby (Our Flag Means Death)
Keegan-Michael Key (Schmigadoon)
Mike Myers (The Pentaverate) — podcast
Ralph Macchio (Cobra Kai)
William Zabka (Cobra Kai)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jean Smart (Hacks)
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
Issa Rae (Insecure)
Elle Fanning (The Great) — podcast
Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)
Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll)
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)

Major Threats
Sandra Oh (The Chair) — podcast
Sarah Lancashire (Julia)
Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) — podcast
Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
Tiffany Haddish (The Afterparty)
Robin Thede (A Black Lady Sketch Show) — podcast
Natasia Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows)

Possibilities
Rose Byrne (Physical)
Sarah Jessica Parker (And Just Like That…)
Maya Erskine (Pen15)
Anna Konkle (Pen15)
Lily Collins (Emily in Paris) — podcast
Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson) — podcast
Cecily Strong (Schmigdaoon)
Amy Schumer (Life and Beth) — podcast
Courteney Cox (Shining Vale)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)
Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)
Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)

Major Threats
Brendan Hunt (Ted Lasso)
LaKeith Stanfield (Atlanta)
Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Harvey Guillen (What We Do in the Shadows)
David Hyde Pierce (Julia)
Ben Schwartz (The Afterparty)
Ike Barinholtz (The Afterparty)
Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks)
Charlie Barnett (Russian Doll)
Stephen Root (Barry)

Possibilities
Jeremy Swift (Ted Lasso)
Taika Waititi (Our Flag Means Death)
Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine Nine)
Jay Duplass (The Chair)
Michael Zegen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Pete Davidson (Saturday Night Live)
Lucas Bravo (Emily in Paris)
Lucien Laviscount (Emily in Paris)
Keegan-Michael Key (The Pentaverate)
Ken Jeong (The Pentaverate) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Yvonne Orji (Insecure)
Sarah Goldberg (Barry)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)

Major Threats
Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
Lisa Ann Walter (Abbott Elementary)
Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
Amy Ryan (Only Murders in the Building)
Rosie Perez (The Flight Attendant)
Jane Lynch (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Zoe Chao (The Afterparty)
Ilana Glazer (The Afterparty)

Possibilities
Molly Shannon (The Other Two)
Chloe Fineman (Saturday Night Live)
Meg Stalter (Hacks)
Holland Taylor (The Chair)
Cynthia Nixon (And Just Like That…)
Kristin Davis (And Just Like That…)
Kristin Chenoweth (Schmigadoon)
Ariana DeBose (Schmigadoon)
Chloe Sevigny (Russian Doll)
Annie Murphy (Russian Doll)
Ashley Park (Emily in Paris)
Zosia Mamet (The Flight Attendant)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Michael Keaton (Dopesick) — podcast
Colin Firth (The Staircase)
Oscar Isaac (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast
Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven) — podcast
Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy)

Major Threats
Sam Elliott (1883) — podcast
Sean Penn (Gaslit)
Ben Foster (The Survivor)
Samuel L. Jackson (The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey) — podcast
Paul Bettany (A Very British Scandal)
Jon Bernthal (We Own This City)
Himesh Patel (Station Eleven)
Jared Leto (WeCrashed) — podcast
Miles Teller (The Offer) — podcast
Tom Hiddleston (The Essex Serpent) — podcast
Oscar Isaac (Moon Knight) — podcast

Possibilities
David Thewlis (Landscapers)
Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan: The Movie)
William Jackson Harper (Love Life)
Joshua Jackson (Dr. Death)
Jeremy Renner (Hawkeye)
Hamish Linklater (Midnight Mass)
Ben Whishaw (This Is Going to Hurt)
Will Poulter (Why Didn’t They Ask Evans?)
Stephen Graham (Help)
Finn Wittwrock (American Horror Story: Double Feature)
Sean Bean (Time)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) — podcast
Margaret Qualley (Maid) — podcast
Julia Garner (Inventing Anna) — podcast
Julia Roberts (Gaslit) — podcast
Jessica Chastain (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast

Major Threats
Isabel May (1883) — podcast
Claire Foy (A Very British Scandal) — podcast
Elle Fanning (The Girl from Plainville) — podcast
Mackenzie Davis (Station Eleven)
Lily James (Pam and Tommy) — podcast
Wunmi Mosaku (We Own This City)
Olivia Colman (Landscapers) — podcast
Anne Hathaway (WeCrashed)
Jenna Ortega (The Fallout)
Jessica Biel (Candy) — podcast
Lily James (The Pursuit of Love) — podcast

Possibilities
Jodie Comer (Help) — podcast
Claire Danes (The Essex Serpent) — podcast
Kate Siegel (Midnight Mass)
Renee Zellweger (The Thing About Pam) — podcast
Hailee Steinfeld (Hawkeye) — podcast
Emmy Rossum (Angelyne)
Adrienne Warren (Women of the Movement)
Lucy Boynton (Why Didn’t They Ask Evans?)
Beanie Feldstein (Impeachment: American Crime Story)
Sarah Paulson (Impeachment: American Crime Story) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Murray Bartlett (The White Lotus)
Peter Sarsgaard (Dopesick)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Dopesick)
Naveen Andrews (The Dropout)
Tim McGraw (1883)
Will Poulter (Dopesick)

Major Threats
Matthew Goode (The Offer)
Seth Rogen (Pam and Tommy) — podcast
Nick Robinson (Maid)
Wyatt Russell (Under the Banner of Heaven)
Arian Moayed (Inventing Anna)
Anders Holm (Inventing Anna)
Dan Stevens (Gaslit)
Shea Whigham (Gaslit)
Christian Slater (Dr. Death)
Kelsey Grammer (Dr. Death)
Michael Stuhlbarg (The Staircase)
Vincent D’Onofrio (Hawkeye)

Possibilities
Ethan Hawke (Moon Knight) — podcast
Jon Voight (Ray Donovan: The Movie)
Glynn Turman (Women of the Movement)
Colton Ryan (The Girl from Plainville)
O-T Fagbenle (WeCrashed)
Kyle Marvin (WeCrashed)
Sam Waterston (The Dropout) — podcast
William H. Macy (The Dropout)
Jake Lacy (The White Lotus)
Zach Gilford (Midnight Mass)
Dan Fogler (The Offer)
Hugh Laurie (Why Didn’t They Ask Evans?)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Andie MacDowell (Maid)
Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick) — podcast
Connie Britton (The White Lotus)
Toni Collette (The Staircase)
Alexandra Daddario (The White Lotus)

Major Threats
Faith Hill (1883)
Betty Gilpin (Gaslit)
Anika Noni Rose (Maid)
Anna Chlumsky (Inventing Anna)
Dominique Fishback (The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey)
Daisy Edgar-Jones (Under the Banner of Heaven)
Florence Pugh (Hawkeye) — podcast
Laurie Metcalf (The Dropout)
Chloe Sevigny (The Girl from Plainville)
Juno Temple (The Offer)
Vicky Krieps (The Survivor)
Rosario Dawson (Dopesick)
Edie Falco (Impeachment: American Crime Story)
Margo Martindale (Impeachment: American Crime Story)

Possibilities
Taylor Schilling (Pam and Tommy)
May Calamawy (Moon Knight)
Alexis Floyd (Inventing Anna)
Laverne Cox (Inventing Anna)
Katie Lowes (Inventing Anna)
Phillipa Soo (Dopesick)
Sydney Sweeney (The White Lotus)
Vera Farmiga (Hawkeye)
Melanie Lynskey (Candy)
America Ferrera (WeCrashed)
Shailene Woodley (The Fallout)
AnnaSophia Robb (Dr. Death)
Grace Gummer (Dr. Death)
Matilda Lawler (Station Eleven)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES*

Frontrunners
The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)
jeen-yuhs (Netflix)
We Need to Talk About Cosby
(Showtime)
The Andy Warhol Diaries
 (Netflix)
The New York Times Presents: Controlling Britney Spears
(FX)

Major Threats
Catch and Kill: The Podcast Tapes (HBO)
Not So Pretty
(HBO Max)
Welcome to Earth
(Nat Geo)
They Call Me Magic
 (Apple)
McCartney 3, 2, 1
 (Hulu)
Our Great National Parks
(Netflix)
Prehistoric Planet (Apple)

Possibilities
The Big Conn (Apple)
The Tinder Swindler (Netflix)
Music Box (HBO)
NYC Epicenters 9/11 (HBO)
The Way Down: God, Greed and the Cult of Gwen Shamblin (HBO Max)
The Invisible Pilot (HBO)
100 Foot Wave (HBO)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SPECIAL*

Frontrunners
Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy
(CNN)
United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell (CNN)
Vice (Showtime)
Lucy and Desi
(Amazon)
Phoenix Rising (HBO)

Major Threats
We Feed People (Nat Geo) — podcast (Jose Andres)
Downfall (Netflix)
Fauci
(Nat Geo)
Insecure: The End
 (HBO)
What Happened, Brittany Murphy?
 (HBO Max)
Nuclear Family (HBO)
A Man Named Scott (Amazon)

Possibilities
Gaming Wall St. (HBO Max)
Polar Bear (Disney+)
Murdered and Missing in Montana (Oxygen)
The Super Bob Einstein Film (HBO)
Beanie Mania (HBO Max)
9/11: Inside the President’s War Room (Apple)
Tony Hawk: Until the Wheels Fall Off (HBO)

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