Feinberg Forecast: Final Emmy Nominations Projections

Scott Feinberg
·10 min read
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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Emmys and the history of the Emmys itself.

*BEST DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Succession (HBO/Max)
The White Lotus: Sicily (HBO/Max)
The Last of Us (HBO/Max)
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Yellowjackets (Showtime)
The Crown (Netflix)
Andor (Disney+)
House of the Dragon (HBO/Max)

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Alternate
The Diplomat (Netflix)

Potential Surprise
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Yellowstone (Paramount)

*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
The Bear (FX)
Barry (HBO/Max)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Wednesday (Netflix)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Shrinking (Apple TV+)

Alternate
Poker Face (Peacock)

Potential Surprise
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Rehearsal (HBO/Max)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Beef (Netflix)
Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
Black Bird (Apple TV+)
A Small Light (NatGeo)
Daisy Jones & the Six (Amazon)

Alternate
White House Plumbers (HBO/Max)

Potential Surprise
Tiny Beautiful Things (Hulu)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
George and Tammy (Showtime)

*BEST TV MOVIE*

Projected Nominees
Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (Roku Channel)
Prey (Hulu)
Fire Island (Hulu)
Reality (HBO/Max)
Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic Christmas (NBC) — podcast [Dolly Parton]

Alternate
Reno 911!: It’s a Wonderful Heist (Comedy Central)

Potential Surprise
Beavis and Butt-Head Do the Universe (Paramount+)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Jerry & Marge Go Large (Paramount+)

*BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES*

Projected Nominees
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast [Stephen Colbert]
The Daily Show With Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) — podcast [Trevor Noah]
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast [Jimmy Kimmel]
Late Night With Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast [Seth Meyers]
The Problem With Jon Stewart (Apple TV+)

Alternate
The Late Late Show With James Corden (CBS) — podcast [James Corden]

Potential Surprise
Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO/Max) — podcast [Bill Maher]

Shoulda Been a Contenda
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC) — podcast [Jimmy Fallon]

*BEST SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO/Max)
Saturday Night Live (NBC) — podcast [Lorne Michaels]
A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO/Max) — podcast [Robin Thede]

Alternate
Inside Amy Schumer (Paramount+) — podcast [Amy Schumer]

Potential Surprise
History of the World: Part II (Hulu)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Ziwe (Showtime)

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)*

Projected Nominees
The Apple Music Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show Starring Rihanna (Fox)
Chris Rock: Selective Outrage (Netflix)
The Oscars (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
The 65th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium (Disney+) — podcast (Elton John)

Alternate
The 75th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)

Potential Surprise
Apple Music Live: Ed Sheeran (Apple TV+)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Taylor Hawkins Tribute Concert (Paramount+)

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED)*

Projected Nominees
John Mulaney: Baby J (Netflix) — podcast (John Mulaney)
The Last Last Late Late Show with James Corden Carpool Karaoke Special (CBS) — podcast (James Corden)
Sarah Silverman: Someone You Love (HBO/Max) — podcast (Sarah Silverman)
Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love (NBC) — podcast (Carol Burnett)
Library of Congress Gershwin Prize for Popular Song: Joni Mitchell (PBS)

Alternate
Jon Stewart: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor (PBS)

Potential Surprise
Hannah Gadsby: Something Special (Netflix) — podcast (Hannah Gadsby)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Norman Lear: 100 Years of Music & Laughter (ABC) — podcast (Norman Lear)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES*

Projected Nominees
100 Foot Wave (HBO/Max)
Harry & Meghan (Netflix)
The U.S. and the Holocaust (PBS) — podcast [Ken Burns]
The Last Movie Stars (HBO/Max) — podcast [Ethan Hawke]
The 1619 Project (Hulu)

Alternate
Murdaugh Murders: A Southern Scandal (Netflix)

Potential Surprise
Full Swing (Netflix)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Dear Mama: The Saga of Afeni and Tupac Shakur (FX)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SPECIAL*

Projected Nominees
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple TV+) — podcast [Davis Guggenheim]
Being Mary Tyler Moore (HBO/Max)
Pamela: A Love Story (Netflix)
Pretty Baby: Brooke Shields (Hulu)
If These Walls Could Sing (Disney+)

Alternate
Judy Blume Forever (Amazon)

Potential Surprise
Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me (Apple TV+) — podcast [Selena Gomez]

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Love to Love You, Donna Summer (HBO/Max)

*BEST HOSTED NONFICTION SERIES OR SPECIAL*

Projected Nominees
My Next Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Netflix) — podcast (David Letterman)
Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy (CNN)
Vice (Showtime)
Somebody Feed Phil (Netflix)
The United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell (CNN)

Alternate
Limitless with Chris Hemsworth (Disney+)

Potential Surprise
SmartLess: On the Road (Max)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Jay Leno’s Garage (CNBC) — podcast (Jay Leno)

*BEST STRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected Nominees
Queer Eye (Netflix)
Shark Tank (ABC) — podcast (Mark Cuban)
Love Is Blind (Netflix)
Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
Couples Therapy (Showtime)

Alternate
Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food)

Potential Surprise
The Gentle Art of Swedish Death Cleaning (Peacock)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Who Do You Think You Are? (NBC)

*BEST UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected Nominees
RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked (VH1) — podcast (RuPaul)
Selling Sunset (Netflix)
Welcome to Wrexham (FX) — podcast (Ryan Reynolds)
Indian Matchmaking (Netflix)
Vanderpump Rules (Bravo)

Alternate
Deadliest Catch (Discovery)

Potential Surprise
The Kardashians (Hulu) — podcast (Kris Jenner)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
My Unorthodox Life (Netflix)

*BEST REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM*

Projected Nominees
RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1) — podcast (RuPaul)
The Voice (NBC)
The Amazing Race (CBS)
Nailed It! (Netflix)
Top Chef (Bravo)

Alternate
The Circle (Netflix)

Potential Surprise
Pickled (CBS) — podcast (Stephen Colbert)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

*BEST GAME SHOW*

Projected Nominees
Jeopardy! (Syndicated)
The Price Is Right (CBS)
Wheel of Fortune (Syndicated)
Family Feud (Syndicated)
Let’s Make a Deal (CBS)

Alternate
That’s My Jam (NBC)

Potential Surprise
Password (NBC)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Weakest Link (TK)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us)
Jeremy Strong (Succession) — podcast
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Brian Cox (Succession) — podcast
Jeff Bridges (The Old Man) — podcast

Alternate
Diego Luna (Andor)

Potential Surprise
Paddy Considine (House of the Dragon)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Kevin Costner (Yellowstone)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Sarah Snook (Succession) — podcast
Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)
Imelda Staunton (The Crown)
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale) — podcast
Helen Mirren (1923) — podcast

Alternate
Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — podcast

Potential Surprise
Emma D’Arcy (House of the Dragon)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Juliette Lewis (Yellowjackets)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus: Sicily) — podcast
Alan Ruck (Succession)
Alexander Skarsgard (Succession) — podcast
John Lithgow (The Old Man)

Alternate
Michael Imperioli (The White Lotus: Sicily)

Potential Surprise
Matt Smith (House of the Dragon)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Tom Hollander (The White Lotus: Sicily)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus: Sicily)
J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets)
Carol Burnett (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus: Sicily) — podcast
Meghann Fahy (The White Lotus: Sicily)

Alternate
Ann Dowd (The Handmaid’s Tale)

Potential Surprise
Milly Alcock (House of the Dragon)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Haley Lu Richardson (The White Lotus: Sicily)

*BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees
James Cromwell (Succession)
Nick Offerman (The Last of Us)
Murray Bartlett (The Last of Us)
Andy Serkis (Andor)
Giancarlo Esposito (The Mandalorian) — podcast
Bryan Cranston (Better Call Saul) — podcast

Major Threat
Lamar Johnson (The Last of Us)

Potential Surprise
Jon Gries (The White Lotus: Sicily)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Paul Reiser (The Boys)

*BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Anna Torv (The Last of Us)
Harriet Walter (Succession)
Melanie Lynskey (The Last of Us)
Fiona Shaw (Andor)
Hiam Abbass (Succession)
Cherry Jones (Succession)

Major Threats
Storm Reid (The Last of Us)

Potential Surprise
Claire Foy (The Crown)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Margo Martindale (Your Honor)

*BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
Bill Hader (Barry) — podcast
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — podcast

Alternate
Jason Segel (Shrinking) — podcast

Potential Surprise
Donald Glover (Atlanta)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Nathan Fielder (The Rehearsal)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — podcast
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) — podcast
Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face) — podcast

Alternate
Elle Fanning (The Great) — podcast

Potential Surprise
Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Bridget Everett (Somebody Somewhere)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
Harrison Ford (Shrinking)

Alternate
Stephen Root (Barry)

Potential Surprise
James Marsden (Jury Duty)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Michael Zegen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) — podcast
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
Sarah Goldberg (Barry)
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)

Alternate
Jessica Williams (Shrinking)

Potential Surprise
Lisa Ann Walter (Ted Lasso)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Molly Shannon (The Other Two)

*BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Dave Chappelle (Saturday Night Live)
Steve Martin & Martin Short (Saturday Night Live) — podcast (Short)
Pedro Pascal (Saturday Night Live)
Leslie Odom, Jr. (Abbott Elementary) — podcast
Oliver Platt (The Bear)
Nathan Lane (Only Murders in the Building)

Alternate
Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Potential Surprise
Brad Pitt (Dave)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Adrien Brody (Poker Face)

*BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees
Taraji P. Henson (Abbott Elementary) — podcast
Quinta Brunson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Sarah Niles (Ted Lasso)
Catherine Zeta-Jones (Wednesday)
Shirley MacLaine (Only Murders in the Building) — podcast
Harriet Walter (Ted Lasso)

Alternate
Ayo Edebiri (Abbott Elementary)

Potential Surprise
Rachel McAdams (Dave)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Jenna Ortega (Saturday Night Live)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Nominees
Evan Peters (Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Taron Egerton (Black Bird) — podcast
Steven Yeun (Beef) — podcast
Daniel Radcliffe (Weird: The Al Yankovic Story)
Steve Carell (The Patient) — podcast
Michael Shannon (George & Tammy) — podcast

Alternate
Sam Claflin (Daisy Jones & the Six)

Potential Surprise
Joe Cole (A Small Light)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Ben Whishaw (This Is Going to Hurt)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Nominees
Ali Wong (Beef)
Jessica Chastain (George & Tammy) — podcast
Kathryn Hahn (Tiny Beautiful Things) — podcast
Rachel Weisz (Dead Ringers)
Bel Powley (A Small Light)
Riley Keough (Daisy Jones & the Six)

Alternate
Emily Blunt (The English)

Potential Surprise
Sydney Sweeney (Reality) — podcast

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Dominique Fishback (Swarm)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Nominees
Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird) — podcast
Richard Jenkins (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Domhnall Gleeson (The Patient)
Ray Liotta (Black Bird) — podcast
Greg Kinnear (Black Bird)
Rodney Burford Jr. (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Timothy Olyphant (Daisy Jones & the Six)

Alternate
Justin Theroux (White House Plumbers)

Potential Surprise
Bowen Yang (Fire Island)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Young Mazino (Beef)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Nominees
Niecy Nash-Betts (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Claire Danes (Fleishman Is in Trouble) — podcast
Merritt Wever (Tiny Beautiful Things)
Lily Rabe (Love & Death)
Suki Waterhouse (Daisy Jones & the Six)
Camila Morrone (Daisy Jones & the Six)
Molly Ringwald (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)

Alternate
Maria Bello (Beef)

Potential Surprise
Lena Headey (White House Plumbers)

Shoulda Been a Contenda
Harriet Walter (This Is Going to Hurt)

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