Feinberg Forecast: The Emmys Landscape With One Week Until Nominations Voting

·10 min read

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Emmys and the history of the Emmys itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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Frontrunners
Succession (HBO)
Squid Game (Netflix)
Ozark (Netflix)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
This Is Us (NBC)
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Yellowstone (Paramount)
Severance
(Apple)

Major Threats
Euphoria
(HBO)
Yellowjackets
(Showtime)
Winning Time
(HBO)
Bridgerton (Netflix)
The Morning Show
(Apple)
Pachinko
(Apple)

Possibilities
Killing Eve
(BBC America)
Tokyo Vice
(HBO Max)
Loki (Disney+)
The Man Who Fell to Earth (Showtime)
Evil (CBS)
The Good Fight (Paramount+)

*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Ted Lasso (Apple)
Hacks
(HBO Max)
Barry
(HBO)
Atlanta (FX)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Major Threats
The Great (Hulu)
Reservation Dogs (FX)
The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
Russian Doll (Netflix)
The Afterparty (Apple)
Emily in Paris (Netflix)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Insecure (HBO)

Possibilities
Black-ish (ABC)
Pen15 (Hulu)
Better Things (FX)
Schmigadoon
(Apple)
The Chair
(Netflix)
The Other Two (HBO Max)
Grace and Frankie (Netflix)
Dave (FXX)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES*

Frontrunners
The Staircase (HBO Max)
The White Lotus (HBO)
Dopesick (Hulu)
The Dropout (Hulu)
Maid (Netflix)

Major Threats
Inventing Anna (Netflix)
Under the Banner of Heaven (FX on Hulu)
1883 (Paramount+)
Gaslit (Starz)
We Own This City (HBO)
Station Eleven (HBO Max)
Scenes from a Marriage (HBO)
Pam and Tommy (Hulu)
A Very British Scandal (Amazon)

Possibilities
The Offer (Paramount+)
WeCrashed (Apple)
The Girl from Plainville (Hulu)
Candy
(Hulu)
The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey (Apple)
Moon Knight (Disney+)
The Pursuit of Love (Amazon)
Impeachment: American Crime Story (FX)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jeremy Strong (Succession) — podcast
Brian Cox (Succession) — podcast
Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game) — podcast
Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
Adam Scott (Severance)

Major Threats
Kevin Costner (Yellowstone)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast
John C. Reilly (Winning Time)
Quincy Isaiah (Winning Time)
Lee Min-Ho (Pachinko)
Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — podcast
Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) — podcast
Justin Hartley (This Is Us)
Josh Brolin (Outer Range)

Possibilities
Ansel Elgort (Tokyo Vice)
Jeremy Renner (Mayor of Kingstown)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (The Man Who Fell to Earth)
Sam Heughan (Outlander)
Tom Hiddleston (Loki) — podcast
Jonathan Bailey (Bridgerton)
Jamie Dornan (The Tourist) — podcast
J.K. Simmons (Night Sky)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Zendaya (Euphoria) — podcast
Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
Laura Linney (Ozark)
Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
Kelly Reilly (Yellowstone)
Britt Lower (Severance)

Major Threats
Juliette Lewis (Yellowjackets)
Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) — podcast
Sandra Oh (Killing Eve) — podcast
Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)
Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age)
Elisabeth Moss (Shining Girls) — podcast
Christine Baranski (The Good Fight)
Simone Ashley (Bridgerton)

Possibilities
Minha Kim (Pachinko)
Nicole Kidman (Nine Perfect Strangers) — podcast
Caitriona Balfe (Outlander) — podcast
Katja Herbers (Evil)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses)
Rosamund Pike (The Wheels of Time) — podcast
Imogen Poots (Outer Range)
Elodie Yung (The Cleaning Lady)
Sissy Spacek (Night Sky)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
Alan Ruck (Succession)
John Turturro (Severance) — podcast
Christopher Walken (Severance)
Oh Young-soo (Squid Game)
Park Hae-soo (Squid Game) — podcast

Major Threats
David Harbour (Stranger Things)
Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Adrien Brody (Winning Time)
Chris Sullivan (This Is Us)
Cole Hauser (Yellowstone)
Luke Grimes (Yellowstone)
Wes Bentley (Yellowstone)
Gil Birmingham (Yellowstone)

Possibilities
Eric Dane (Euphoria)
Jacob Elordi (Euphoria)
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Mark Duplass (The Morning Show)
Steve Carell (The Morning Show) — podcast
Ken Watanabe (Tokyo Vice)
Owen Wilson (Loki)
Mandy Patinkin (The Good Fight)
Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Sarah Snook (Succession)
Julia Garner (Ozark) — podcast
Jung Ho-yeon (Squid Game) — podcast
J. Cameron Smith (Succession)
Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets)
Patricia Arquette (Severance)
Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria)
Maude Apatow (Euphoria)

Major Threats
Sadie Sink (Stranger Things)
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) — podcast
Hunter Schafer (Euphoria)
Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
Kim Joo-ryung (Squid Game)
Lisa Emery (Ozark)
Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
Susan Kelechi Watson (This Is Us)

Possibilities
Yuh-Jung Youn (Pachinko)
Kelsey Asbille (Yellowstone)
Julianna Margulies (The Morning Show)
Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton)
Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)
Sally Field (Winning Time) — podcast
Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve)
Audra McDonald (The Good Fight)

*BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Bill Hader (Barry)
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
Nicholas Hoult (The Great)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
Ricky Gervais (After Life) — podcast

Major Threats
Don Cheadle (Black Monday)
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)
Jake Johnson (Minx)
Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows)
Kayvan Novak (What We Do in the Shadows)
Sam Richardson (The Afterparty)

Possibilities
Dave Burd (Dave)
Drew Tarver (The Other Two)
Jeremy Renner (Hawkeye)
Rhys Darby (Our Flag Means Death)
Ralph Macchio (Cobra Kai)
William Zabka (Cobra Kai)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jean Smart (Hacks)
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
Issa Rae (Insecure)
Elle Fanning (The Great) — podcast
Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll)
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)

Major Threats
Sandra Oh (The Chair) — podcast
Sarah Lancashire (Julia)
Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) — podcast
Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) — podcast
Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
Tiffany Haddish (The Afterparty)
Natasia Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows)

Possibilities
Rose Byrne (Physical)
Sarah Jessica Parker (And Just Like That)
Maya Erskine (Pen15)
Anna Konkle (Pen15)
Robin Thede (A Black Lady Sketch Show) — podcast
Lily Collins (Emily in Paris) — podcast
Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson) — podcast
Courteney Cox (Shining Vale) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)
Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)
Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Major Threats
Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)
Brendan Hunt (Ted Lasso)
Phil Dunster (Ted Lasso)
Jeremy Swift (Ted Lasso)
LaKeith Stanfield (Atlanta)
Harvey Guillen (What We Do in the Shadows)
David Hyde Pierce (Julia)
Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks)

Possibilities
Stephen Root (Barry)
Pete Davidson (Saturday Night Live)
Ben Schwartz (The Afterparty)
Ike Barinholtz (The Afterparty)
Charlie Barnett (Russian Doll)
Taika Waititi (Our Flag Means Death)
Andre Braugher (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
Jay Duplass (The Chair)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Yvonne Orji (Insecure)
Sarah Goldberg (Barry)
Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)

Major Threats
Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Jane Lynch (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
Lisa Ann Walter (Abbott Elementary)
Zazie Beetz (Atlanta)
Rosie Perez (The Flight Attendant)
Molly Shannon (The Other Two)
Zoe Chao (The Afterparty)
Ilana Glazer (The Afterparty)

Possibilities
Amy Ryan (Only Murders in the Building)
Meg Stalter (Hacks)
Holland Taylor (The Chair)
Phoebe Fox (The Great)
Florence Pugh (Hawkeye) — podcast
Vera Farmiga (Hawkeye)
Kristin Chenoweth (Schmigadoon)
Chloe Sevigny (Russian Doll)
Annie Murphy (Russian Doll)
Ashley Park (Emily in Paris)
Zosia Mamet (The Flight Attendant)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Michael Keaton (Dopesick) — podcast
Colin Firth (The Staircase)
Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven) — podcast
Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy)
Oscar Isaac (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast

Major Threats
Sam Elliott (1883) — podcast
Sean Penn (Gaslit)
Ben Foster (The Survivor)
Samuel L. Jackson (The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey) — podcast
Paul Bettany (A Very British Scandal)
Jon Bernthal (We Own This City)

Possibilities
Jared Leto (WeCrashed) — podcast
Miles Teller (The Offer) — podcast
Himesh Patel (Station Eleven)
Tom Hiddleston (The Essex Serpent) — podcast
Oscar Isaac (Moon Knight) — podcast
David Thewlis (Landscapers)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) — podcast
Margaret Qualley (Maid) — podcast
Julia Garner (Inventing Anna) — podcast
Julia Roberts (Gaslit) — podcast
Jessica Chastain (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast

Major Threats
Isabel May (1883) — podcast
Claire Foy (A Very British Scandal) — podcast
Lily James (Pam and Tommy) — podcast
Elle Fanning (The Girl from Plainville) — podcast
Mackenzie Davis (Station Eleven)
Anne Hathaway (WeCrashed)
Jessica Biel (Candy) — podcast
Emmy Rossum (Angelyne)

Possibilities
Olivia Colman (Landscapers) — podcast
Jenna Ortega (The Fallout)
Claire Danes (The Essex Serpent) — podcast
Renee Zellweger (The Thing About Pam) — podcast
Beanie Feldstein (Impeachment: American Crime Story)
Sarah Paulson (Impeachment: American Crime Story) — podcast
Adrienne Warren (Women of the Movement)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Murray Bartlett (The White Lotus)
Peter Sarsgaard (Dopesick)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Dopesick)
Will Poulter (Dopesick)
Naveen Andrews (The Dropout)
Tim McGraw (1883)

Major Threats
Jake Lacy (The White Lotus)
Matthew Goode (The Offer)
Seth Rogen (Pam and Tommy) — podcast
Nick Robinson (Maid)
Wyatt Russell (Under the Banner of Heaven)
Michael Stuhlbarg (The Staircase)
Arian Moayed (Inventing Anna)
Anders Holm (Inventing Anna)

Possibilities
Dan Stevens (Gaslit)
Shea Whigham (Gaslit)
Colton Ryan (The Girl from Plainville)
O-T Fagbenle (WeCrashed)
Kyle Marvin (WeCrashed)
Ethan Hawke (Moon Knight) — podcast
Glynn Turman (Women of the Movement)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Andie MacDowell (Maid)
Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick) — podcast
Toni Collette (The Staircase)
Connie Britton (The White Lotus)
Alexandra Daddario (The White Lotus)

Major Threats
Daisy Edgar-Jones (Under the Banner of Heaven)
Faith Hill (1883)
Betty Gilpin (Gaslit)
Anika Noni Rose (Maid)
Sydney Sweeney (The White Lotus)
Rosario Dawson (Dopesick)
Phillipa Soo (Dopesick)
Anna Chlumsky (Inventing Anna)
Dominique Fishback (The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey)

Possibilities
Laurie Metcalf (The Dropout)
Juno Temple (The Offer)
Chloe Sevigny (The Girl from Plainville)
Vicky Krieps (The Survivor)
Matilda Lawler (Station Eleven)
Melanie Lynskey (Candy)
America Ferrera (WeCrashed)
Edie Falco (Impeachment: American Crime Story)
Margo Martindale (Impeachment: American Crime Story)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES*

Frontrunners
The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)
jeen-yuhs (Netflix)
We Need to Talk About Cosby
(Showtime)
The Andy Warhol Diaries
(Netflix)
The New York Times Presents: Controlling Britney Spears
(FX)

Major Threats
Music Box
(HBO)
Catch and Kill: The Podcast Tapes
(HBO)
Not So Pretty
(HBO Max)
Welcome to Earth
(Nat Geo)
McCartney 3, 2, 1
(Hulu)
Our Great National Parks
(Netflix)

Possibilities
They Call Me Magic
(Apple)
Sketchbook
(Disney+)
The Big Conn
(Apple)
NYC Epicenters 9/11-2021 1/2 (HBO)
The Way Down: God, Greed and the Cult of Gwen Shamblin (HBO Max)
The Invisible Pilot (HBO)
100 Foot Wave (HBO)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SPECIAL*

Frontrunners
Lucy and Desi (Amazon)
George Carlin’s American Dream (HBO) — podcast (Judd Apatow)
We Feed People (Nat Geo) — podcast (José Andrés)
Downfall (Netflix)
The Tinder Swindler (Netflix)

Major Threats
Wolfgang
(Disney+)
Insecure: The End
(HBO)
Sheryl
(Showtime)
What Happened, Brittany Murphy?
(HBO Max)
Nuclear Family (HBO)
A Man Named Scott (Amazon)
Gaming Wall St. (HBO Max)
Polar Bear (Disney+)
14 Peaks (Netflix)

Possibilities
Murdered and Missing in Montana (HBO)
The Super Bob Einstein Film (HBO)
Beanie Mania (HBO Max)
9/11: Inside the President’s War Room (Apple)
Tony Hawk: Until the Wheels Fall Off (HBO)
Olivia Rodrigo: Driving Home 2 U (Disney+)
Happier Than Ever: A Love Letter to Los Angeles (Disney+)

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