‘Fast X’ To Run Circles Around The World With Near $300M Opening – Box Office Preview

Anthony D'Alessandro and Nancy Tartaglione
·3 min read
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While it might seem that Fast X has run out of gas in the States, it’s totally turbo-boosted overseas as the 10th installment in the Universal franchise is eyeing a an offshore start of $235M and $60M+ domestic. That would get Fast X to $295M worldwide, making it the third-best global start for a Fast & Furious movie after 2017’s Fate of the Furious ($541.9M) and 2015’s Furious 7 ($397.6M).

And that’s nothing to be ashamed about despite any smacking of franchise fatigue. It’s a start that would beat such movies such as Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($290M WW, 2016), Justice League ($278.8M, 2017), and The Twilight Saga: New Moon ($274.9M, 2009). As always, Fast X is a part of multicultural-appealing jewel crown for Universal and will overindex stateside with Latino, Hispanic and Black moviegoers.

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Taking this $6 billion franchise higher this weekend is a launch in 81 offshore marketing including highly coveted China, as well as South Korea, Mexico, France, UK & Ireland, Australia, Brazil and Italy.

The pattern is different than 2021’s F9, which bowed around the same time of year, but in a staggered pattern.

F9 did $235M in like-for-like markets and at today’s rates — including previews and including China; the latter, as ever, is the swing again this time.

China is a huge market for the franchise, but caution prevails. F9 was the first major studio title to release there in the middle of the pandemic and finaled at $128M (adjusted). While Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 has recently showed that Hollywood movies are not entirely being shunned, there nevertheless has been tepid response in the past several months. Presales on Fast X are currently below those of F9. It is leading previews and presales for the coming days, but this is a wait-and-see game.

China was the top market on F9, and each of the most recent installments (including Hobbs & Shaw). Following it on the last movie were Japan, Mexico, the UK and Germany.

The Toretto family has been out on the road, notably in Rome with a premiere in front of the Coliseum on May 12, while Jason Momoa flew the flag at a May 13 event in Auckland, New Zealand. The next stop was set for Mexico City.

The current international journey for the movie starring Vin Diesel, Momoa, Brie Larson, Michelle Rodriguez and Charlize Theron starts Wednesday abroad, with U.S. firing up its engines at 2 p.m. Thursday. The previous movie, 2021’s F9, did $7.1M in previews that started at 7 p.m., in what was a market still greasing its wheels and reopening after exhibitors’ year-long closure. F9 went on to post a $29.8M Friday and a 3-day of $70M and a 2.4x for a final domestic of $173M.

Fast X opens in 4,000 theaters, and, well, the U.S./Canada start is only being figured around $60M+. It’s just the nature of the beast in a franchise that has clocked more than $6 billion since 2001. That opening, though, would be lower than the $75.8M average domestic debut for the franchise through nine titles (not counting spinoff Hobbs & Shaw). Still, it’s an amount of cash to keep theater traffic flowing in May post-Guardians 3 and into Disney’s likely Memorial Day smash with the live-action The Little Mermaid, which is bound to do $110M, if not — holy cow — more over the four day holiday next weekend.

Where does this leave GOTG3 after a great second weekend hold of -48%, best for an MCU title post-pandemic? The third weekend for the James Gunn-directed threequel is estimated to be down -50% at $31M after Disney vacuums up all of that pic’s PDF and Imax runs. Monday for GOTG3 was around $5.1M, taking its running total at the onset of Week 3 to an estimated $219.4M.

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