Fantasy Sit-Start: Lineup advice for every Week 6 game
Sit and start is relative and league dependent, so consider these suggestions more “fliers” and “fades” (note that some are targeted for DFS).
Good luck with your Week 6 lineups.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Start: Carlos Hyde, Byron Pringle
Hyde is averaging 19 touches over the last two games and gets a Chiefs run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA. He dominates goal-line work and should see scoring opportunities in a game with this week’s highest total (55.5 points) by a wide margin. It makes sense to pay up for Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins in DFS this week as well.
Pringle popped for 103 yards and a score last week, and the Chiefs are likely to be without Sammy Watkins and, at best, will have a less-than-full-strength Tyreek Hill returning to the lineup. The Texans are tough against the run but have been gashed for the second-most fantasy points to outside receivers over the last month, so Pringle, who was in the top quarter-percentile in the 40, speed score, and college dominator, is a cheap DFS ($13) option worth taking a flier on this week.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
Start: Jimmy Garoppolo, Gerald Everett
Garoppolo ranks in the top-seven in TD% (6.2), On-Target% (81.4), sack% (3.4) and YPA (8.1) this season and faces a Rams funnel defense that’s been much easier to beat through the air than the ground. San Francisco’s missing offensive pieces (Mike McGlinchey, Kyle Juszczyk) are more important to its rushing attack, and this game features teams both ranking in the top-five in pace during neutral situations this year, so there are going to be a ton of plays Sunday.
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Everett’s seen a major snap% increase over the last two games, has forced more missed tackles than any other wide receiver or tight end in football and could continue to see an uptick in targets with Todd Gurley iffy to play, Brandin Cooks recovering from a concussion, and the team likely to use more 12 personnel against SF’s dominant pass rush. Everett has the upside to be a top-five tight end from here on out.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
Start: Michael Gallup
Sit: Robby Anderson
This should seem obvious for the NFL’s leader in receiving yards per game (113.0), but Gallup’s ECR is WR29 on Fantasy Pros, so it appears his stardom hasn’t been properly recognized yet. He ranks sixth in WOPR and leads the NFL in yards per route run (3.49) by a mile (next best is Michael Thomas at 2.95). Gallup gets a plus matchup against the Jets and should be considered a top-15 wide receiver both this week and rest-of-season.
Like a brilliant episode of “Succession,” Anderson facing a tough cornerback has been a reliable weekly occurrence so far this year, with dominant Byron Jones the culprit this time. It definitely helps to get Sam Darnold back, but Anderson then gets Stephon Gilmore and Jalen Ramsey the next two weeks, so his epic run of bad luck, unfortunately, won’t be ending soon.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Start: D.J. Moore, Ronald Jones
Moore saw eight targets last week and should frequently be opposite Vernon Hargreaves, who’s helped contribute to the Bucs allowing the most fantasy points to Moore’s primary side over the last month.
Jones continues to share the backfield with Peyton Barber, but he’s looked much-improved this season and should benefit Sunday from facing a Carolina run-funnel defense that ranks fourth against the pass but 29th versus the rush in DVOA.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Start: Auden Tate
Start in DFS: Mark Ingram ($27)
Tate mostly disappointed last week while dropping a touchdown early but added one late to salvage his fantasy day. He quietly has another plus matchup against a Ravens defense that’s allowing the second-most yards-per-play (6.7) in the NFL this year and will likely be shadowing Tyler Boyd with tough corner, Marlon Humphrey.
Ingram’s lack of involvement in the passing game remains a disappointment, but he saw a season-high 19 carries last week and is tied (with Aaron Jones and Frank Gore) for the NFL lead with six carries inside the three-yard line this season. Baltimore is 11-point home favorites and enters with a big advantage up front, so Ingram’s setup is favorable.
Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns
Start: Will Dissly, Baker Mayfield
Dissly’s scoring streak ended last week, but he managed a season-high in yards and gets a Cleveland defense that’s ceded the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. He’d become even more important if Denzel Ward and/or Greedy Williams are able to return to Cleveland’s secondary this week.
Mayfield’s INT% (5.0) and On-Target% (67.7) both rank last in the NFL, so he’s no doubt been one of the bigger busts through the first part of the season. But a big issue has been the offensive line (and a coaching staff that needs to be overhauled). Seattle has struggled mightily pressuring the quarterback this season, so expect a bounce-back game from Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. after getting overwhelmed by a dominant SF pass rush.
New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Start in DFS: Alvin Kamara ($29)
Start: Dede Westbrook
Kamara’s speed is utilized best at home, but he’ll be tough to pass on in DFS this week assuming his ankle injury isn’t serious. He’s seeing a big workload with Teddy Bridgewater under center (his 22.3 touches over the last three games are four more than he averaged last season), and New Orleans faces a Jacksonville run defense that ranks last in DVOA and was just annihilated for 237 YFS and three scores by Christian McCaffrey last week.
Westbrook saw a season-high 11 targets last week, and while he’s taken a clear backseat to DJ Chark, he’ll benefit from facing a Saints defense that’s yielded the second-most fantasy points to the slot over the last month. Jacksonville would be best off utilizing its short passing attack Sunday entering at a disadvantage in the trenches.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings
Start: Jordan Howard
Sit: Kirk Cousins
Howard is touchdown-dependent and up against a tough Minnesota run defense, but he’s scored five times over the last three games while outplaying rookie Miles Sanders (4.7 YPC vs. 3.6) and watching 36-year-old Darren Sproles get phased out of the offense. Philadelphia enters this game with a sizable advantage at the line on both sides of the ball.
The Eagles continue to have problems with their secondary, but don’t talk yourself into Cousins this week, as he’s likely to be overwhelmed by Philadelphia’s pass rush. Cousins finally had a nice fantasy game last week versus a poor Giants defense, but he’s otherwise been incredibly shaky while acting as just a caretaker. He’s averaging 136.0 passing yards at home this year and should remain on fantasy benches.
Washington Redskins @ Miami Dolphins
Start: Adrian Peterson, Preston Williams
New interim coach Bill Callahan plans on establishing the run, so Peterson is scheduled for a big workload as favorites against a Miami run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA and has allowed the most fantasy points to backs this season.
It’s easy to overlook Williams with the Dolphins winless and coming off a bye, but he racked up 19 targets over his previous two games and owns a target share (29%) with Josh Rosen under center that would rank second only to Michael Thomas among receivers this season. Williams gets a Washington secondary that’s been struggling badly, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers and the most TD passes (13) in the NFL this year. DeVante Parker is another sneaky play this week (he’s top-15 in air yards this season) against a Washington pass defense that ranks 28th in DVOA. It’s clear, however, that Williams is Rosen’s favorite target, making the rookie wideout an intriguing cheap DFS flier this week.
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals
Start: Mohamed Sanu, Christian Kirk
Sanu remains a big part of an offense that’s on pace to approach the NFL record for pass attempts in a season, and he gets an Arizona secondary that’s been shredded for the second-most fantasy points versus the slot, where Sanu has lined up 84% of the time this year.
Assuming Kirk is ready to return this week, he gets an Atlanta defense that’s been torched for the most fantasy points by wide receivers in 2019. The Cardinals are likely to struggle running against Atlanta with a hobbled David Johnson, so expect a ton of passes Sunday in another matchup featuring two teams in the top-five in pace (during neutral situations).
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos
Sit: A.J. Brown
Start: Emmanuel Sanders
Brown should be rostered in most leagues and is going to be a future monster, but he’s not being treated as the team’s clear WR1 like he should be just yet (there are 75 wide receivers with a higher target share than Brown’s 13%, including Donte Moncrief), and this week he gets a tough matchup with Chris Harris.
Teammate Courtland Sutton is emerging as a star while leading all receivers in broken tackles, and defenses are likely to start focusing on stopping him first. Sanders is still just behind his teammate in target share despite seeing only one last week and should bounce back versus a middling Tennessee secondary.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Start in DFS: James Conner ($24)
Sit: Philip Rivers
Conner has struggled this season with a 3.3 YPC mark, but he’s going to be the focal point of Pittsburgh’s offense Sunday night with Jaylen Samuels out and a second or third-stringer starting at quarterback. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a downgrade facing Casey Hayward and Desmond King, while Conner should benefit from the Steelers’ advantage upfront.
Rivers will be missing center Mike Pouncey and should continue struggling with pressure all Sunday night against a Pittsburgh defense that’s been among the toughest on fantasy quarterbacks this season. Moreover, the Chargers own the league’s slowest pace in neutral situations this season, and they’ll once again be playing a home game with more of the crowd cheering against them.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Start in DFS: Kerryon Johnson ($22)
Start: Geronimo Allison
Johnson had racked up 49 touches over his previous two games and should be fresh coming off a bye against a Green Bay run-funnel defense that ranks top-five against the pass and 28th versus the rush in DVOA. The Packers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs, and the Lions enter with a huge edge in run blocking. Johnson should be treated as a borderline top-five fantasy back in Week 6.
Detroit has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to outside receivers but the sixth-most to the slot this season, and Davante Adams is banged up and unlikely to play. Marquez Valdes-Scantling could see a lot of Darius Slay, whereas slot corner Justin Coleman has been targeted a whopping 28% of his pass routes this season (among the highest in the league), so Allison figures to be busier than usual Monday night (when it’s also set up for another big Aaron Jones game).
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