Fantasy sit-start: Lineup advice for every Week 16 game
Colts vs. Ravens: Sit T.Y. Hilton, whose nightmare season continues. Baltimore’s secondary remains a tough task despite Jimmy Smith’s absence, and Hilton has reached 55 yards just once over his past nine games.
Start Mike Wallace, who’s quietly emerged as Baltimore’s clear No. 1 wideout, averaging 8.5 targets over his past four games (and scoring in the previous two contests before that span). Jeremy Maclin is doubtful, and the Colts have allowed an NFL-high 8.3 YPA and rank No. 30 in pass defense DVOA. Wallace is a top-20 WR on my board this week.
Vikings vs. Packers: Start Latavius Murray, who’s recorded six rushing scores over the last eight games, and while Green Bay defends the run better than the pass, the game script (Minny is 9-point favorites) sets up well for the team’s goal-line back.
Sit Jordy Nelson, who returns to the team’s WR1 role with Davante Adams out, but that will result in Nelson seeing a bunch of Xavier Rhodes coverage. He’s also shown no rapport with Brett Hundley all season. Last week’s loss was a crushing blow to the Packers’ fantasy value.
Lions vs. Bengals: Start Eric Ebron, who’s seen 18 targets over the past two weeks and gets a Bengals defense that ranks No. 30 in DVOA against tight ends. The entire Cincy defense has struggled badly with Vontaze Burfict sidelined.
Fade A.J. Green in DFS, as he follows up last week’s tough matchup against Xavier Rhodes with yet another in Darius Slay.
Chargers vs. Jets: Start Philip Rivers, who’s coming off a poor game that effectively ended LA’s season but has thrown 14 touchdowns over seven road games and gets a Jets secondary that’s ceded the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks…Antonio Gates is a DFS punt option with Hunter Henry out.
Sit Robby Anderson, who continues to be targeted heavily by Bryce Petty, but the QB is an obvious downgrade, and Anderson will be shadowed by shutdown corner Casey Hayward.
[Week 16 rankings: Overall | PPR | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | DST | Ks]
Rams vs. Titans: Start Jared Goff, who sports a 14:2 TD:INT ratio on the road and faces a Titans defense that’s far better against the run than pass. Goff has a full complement of weapons with Robert Woods back and should benefit from plenty of hitter’s counts with the defense focusing on stopping MVP candidate Todd Gurley.
Start DeMarco Murray, who remains the team’s clear lead back, has gotten 4.5 YPC at home and is up against a Rams defense that’s yielded the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs.
Browns vs. Bears: Sit DeShone Kizer, who’s modest progress came to a halt last week, and he’s in danger of getting benched at any moment. Kizer has nice weapons, and his rushing gives him upside (his eight carries inside the 5-yard line are three more than any other QB and more than RBs Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howard and Alvin Kamara), but the rookie has 19 interceptions and nine fumbles with 31 sacks over 13 games.
Start Kendall Wright, who’s seen 24 targets over the last two weeks and is up against a Browns defense that’s allowed just 3.3 YPC yet 27 passing touchdowns (the second most in the NFL).
Buccaneers vs. Panthers: Start Cameron Brate, whose role should increase with O.J. Howard out (side note: the rookie leads all tight ends with 11.1 YPT (minimum 35 targets)). Brate has 14 touchdowns since the beginning of last season and has shown a strong connection in the past with Jameis Winston.
Start Devin Funchess, who disappointed in a prime matchup last week and is now sharing targets with a suddenly healthy Greg Olsen. But Funchess remains Carolina’s clear No. 1 wide receiver, and the Bucs have allowed the most fantasy points to the position.
Falcons vs. Saints: Start Mohamed Sanu, who’s looking at a big opportunity in a game with this week’s highest over/under (52.5 points) and Julio Jones matched up against Marshon Lattimore.
Start Drew Brees, who’s been a disappointment to fantasy owners, averaging his fewest yards per game since 2005. Still, he’s getting 8.5 YPA at home, and this game projects as a shootout.
Broncos vs. Washington: Start C.J. Anderson, who’s racked up 54 touches over the past two weeks, including seven carries/targets inside the red zone over that span. It appears CJA is going to finish an up-and-down year on a high note.
Sit Jamison Crowder, who’s up against Chris Harris and a Denver secondary that’s shut down wide receivers all season long. Samaje Perine is banged up and has a tough matchup as well, so it makes most sense to keep all Washington players on fantasy benches.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs: Start Kenyan Drake, who’s played 89 percent of the Dolphins’ snaps over the past three games, is tied for the NFL lead with three carries of 40+ yards, ranks No. 6 in yards created per carry (1.96) and will be a first round fantasy pick in drafts next year.
Load up on Kareem Hunt in DFS. It’s been a roller coaster season for the rookie, but he’s ultimately on pace to finish with 1,875 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs, and the Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites, making Hunt a fine foundation for Week 16 DFS lineups.
Bills vs. Patriots: Sit Tyrod Taylor, who’s gotten just 6.2 YPA while taking 22 sacks over six road games this season. New England’s defense is playing well right now.
Start Dion Lewis, who should step into the role of New England’s lead back with Rex Burkhead out. Lewis ranks No. 1 in yards created per carry (2.76) and #3 in Juke Rate (40.4%), the Pats are 12-point favorites, and the Bills have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs and rank No. 28 in run defense DVOA. Lewis is a must-start RB1 during fantasy championship week.
Jaguars vs. 49ers: Fade Leonard Fournette in DFS, as the rookie is banged up and playing through multiple injuries against a San Francisco defense that’s allowed just 3.1 YPC since its Week 11 bye (thanks to rookie Reuben Foster, who’s PFF’s highest graded run stopping LB over that span). The 49ers corners, however, remain shaky, so fire up both Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole.
Start Garrett Celek, who remains cheap in DFS despite showing good rapport with the NFL’s next (or should I say current) great quarterback. Celek is the only tight end in the league with three catches for 40+ yards and has seen a target inside the 10-yard line in each of the past three games.
Giants vs. Cardinals: Start Ricky Seals-Jones, who frustratingly wasn’t given any extra run last week despite Jermaine Gresham being inactive. But RSJ clearly has potential, and the Giants have been gashed for the most fantasy points against tight ends.
Seahawks vs. Cowboys: Start Paul Richardson, who’s seen seven or more targets in four of the last five games and gets a Cowboys defense that’s been shredded for the fifth-most fantasy points by wide receivers. Look for Seattle’s passing attack to bounce back in a shootout in Week 16.
Pay up for Ezekiel Elliott in DFS, as he returns from his suspension with fresh legs and no doubt to a featured role in Dallas’ offense. Seattle has been shaky against the run of late, and Elliott has a season’s pace of 1,986 total yards with 18 touchdowns. He should be treated as a top-three RB this week.
Steelers vs. Texans: Pay up for Juju Smith-Schuster in DFS. The rookie should act as Pittsburgh’s No. 1 WR with Antonio Brown out, and Houston’s secondary is highly beatable. Smith-Schuster has gotten a strong 11.3 YPT (second only to Ted Ginn, minimum 50 targets) and should be heavily involved Monday. He’s top-10 on my WR board this week.
Sit Lamar Miller, whose floor remains fine thanks to volume but offers little to no upside, having failed to rush for more than 75 yards in any game this season. Houston should be playing mostly from behind, and Miller has gotten a meager 3.4 YPC against base fronts.
Raiders vs. Eagles: Sit Marshawn Lynch, whose return to the league won’t feature a playoff appearance. Lynch absolutely still has it – he ranks #1 in Juke Rate and #2 in evaded tackles – but the Raiders have mostly wasted it for fantasy owners. He gets an Eagles defense that’s ceded the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Start Jay Ajayi, who still isn’t being treated as a feature back in Philly but should get 15+ touches in a favorable matchup. Don’t be surprised when the maddeningly inconsistent Ajayi wins fantasy leagues for those who gamble on him this week…Also start Nelson Agholor, who’s up against an Oakland defense that ranks No. 22 in DVOA against WR2s and has seen nine targets inside the 10-yard line this season.
