Fantasy Football: Five Week 10 matchups to exploit

By Jeff Hicks, 4for4

Special to Yahoo Sports

Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.

Another point to make: I could offer players such as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week, especially when they face awful units according to aFPA. That would do everyone a disservice, however, so I will do my best to avoid players rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues.

Here are the best plays for Week 10.

Jacoby Brissett @ Miami Dolphins

Brissett is entering his swan song as Browns' starting quarterback with Deshaun Watson’s imminent return, but even though he is expected to move to the sidelines and be the good soldier, he is still fantasy relevant. The Browns come off their Week 9 bye with a matchup in Miami against the 31st-ranked Dolphins' defense against QBs. Week 9 brought us a barnburner in Chicago between the Dolphins and Bears and the arrival of Justin Fields as a BAMF in real and fantasy football.

Brissett is not Fields, but he is calculated as a decision-maker and offers enough of a rushing floor to help fantasy players get through another bye week. The Dolphins have four interceptions this season, with three coming against Kenny Pickett in Week 7. Miami has allowed QBs to top 40 fantasy points this season. Unsurprisingly, both were elite runners and see the field better than 99 percent of NFL players. If it was not for Equanimeous St. Brown flat-out dropping a catch that went through his hands last week, it is fair to say Miami was on the verge of losing a game they had no business fighting for their lives in.

Cleveland has a better combination of run and passing options than Chicago and has another game’s worth of tape to pick apart the Dolphins' defense.

D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams @ Chicago Bears

Both need to be included because it is unknown what Swift’s (ankle, shoulder) usage will be after 33 and 10 snaps played in his last two games, respectively. Williams has seen double-digit rushing touches in each game this season, seeing a season-best 24 in Week 9. What both backs could lack facing the 29th-ranked Bears run defense using aFPA is passing work. The Lions have a strong receiving corps, but the Bears are a run-funnel defense. The healthiest back should see a bump in receiving work against a run D that allows 1.33 total TDs to running backs per game. There is also a chance this game touches an Over/Under of 50 by kickoff.

Jerry Jeudy @ Tennessee Titans

There is something to be said about the safety of a fantasy floor. Jerry Jeudy has been the Broncos receiver with the best floor and ceiling in recent weeks despite the shenanigans known as the Denver offense. Jeudy has led or tied for the team lead in receiving targets in four games this season, including three straight games.

Jerry Jeudy #10 of the Denver Broncos has fantasy value
Jerry Jeudy is one of the few reliable fantasy sources on the Broncos. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

The Tennessee Titans get a slightly shorter week against a rested Broncos offense that could not be more discombobulated if it tried before Week 9’s break. A reset and matchup against the third-worst defense against WRs make Jeudy the most appealing passing game option for Russell Wilson in Week 10.

Broncos country, let’s ri- nah, I’m good with that.

Cade Otton vs. Seattle Seahawks

Otton’s Week 9 second half showed his value in close games despite being a rookie. Rookie tight ends tend to underwhelm, but Otton has been more than useful for a struggling Buccaneers offense. The Seahawks travel to Germany as the worst defense in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends and will have to combat Otton’s role as a trusted target, as well as Ko Kieft’s ability to pop up from nowhere and snag a few passes from Tom Brady.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense vs. Indianapolis Colts

The clown show known as the Colts head to Vegas with a head coach with zero experience and a play caller that is only 30 years old. This is not age shaming, it’s just pointing out that the NFL comes at you fast, and Jim Irsay and Chris Ballard may be the worst 1-2 Owner/GM combo at the moment in the league.

Also, Sam Ehlinger is not an NFL-caliber QB, and the offense is one of the most predictable in the NFL. The Raiders have had notable issues maintaining leads, but this Colts team is one of the worst in recent memory, and the Las Vegas offense has top-tier talent to lean on in Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs.

The Raiders' defense is widely available on waiver wires.

Honorable Mentions

Justin Fields vs. Lions

Trevor Lawrence @ Chiefs

Russell Wilson @ Titans

David Montgomery vs. Lions

Khalil Herbert vs. Lions

Jeff Wilson Jr. vs. Browns

Deon Jackson @ Raiders (if Jonathan Taylor is out)

Leonard Fournette vs. Seahawks

Rachaad White vs. Seahawks

Terrace Marshall Jr. vs. Falcons

Josh Palmer @ 49ers

Tyler Higbee vs. Cardinals

Cole Kmet vs. Lions

Evan Engram @ Chiefs

Foster Moreau vs. Colts (if Darren Waller is out)

Steelers defense vs. Saints

Saints defense @ Steelers

Falcons defense @ Panthers

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Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.

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