Expert AI predictions: two singularities

Greta Samwel, The Norman Transcript, Okla.
Updated ·3 min read

Nov. 5—One of the sessions I attended in Las Vegas last August when I was at the AI4 2023 international conference on artificial intelligence featured Mark Brady, PhD.

In addition to being a PhD, Mr. Brady is also the Deputy Chief Data Officer at the office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, which oversees testing of Department of Defense weapons systems. A former Marine and internationally renowned professor of neuroscience, to call Dr. Brady an "artificial intelligence expert" is a bit of an understatement.

Needless to say, when people like Mark Brady speak about AI, I pay attention.

Dr. Brady's predictions about the future of artificial intelligence stood in stark contrast to the giddy "AI is going to save the world" exuberance displayed by many of the conference's more financially-motivated speakers.

He began his talk with a bit of background information by stating, "Artificial intelligence is intelligence which used to be uniquely human but is no longer. That type of intelligence has recently been taken over by machines, and for that reason it's a moving target."

He went on to state and predict that, as regards AI, the human race will witness two "singularities." The word "singularity" has many different definitions, but in this context Dr. Brady employs two of them: (1) a context in which a small change can cause a large effect, and (2) a hypothetical point in time when technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible.

Dr. Brady stated that the First Singularity is a point in time where computational technology is no longer understood by the culture that created it, resulting in negative effects on human civilization. While there may be some excellent systems out there, there are also many that are highly flawed. Examples include the computers we use every day, and the Internet.

"We're supposed to think computer systems are flawless, but flaws, system errors, hacks and crashes happen on an almost daily basis, and society doesn't really know why." As such, Dr. Brady says, the First Singularity has already happened.

One factor contributing to the First Singularity, Dr. Brady says, is that we live in a "post-literate" era. For thousands of years, humanity has grown more and more literate, but has recently devolved and become progressively less literate. Vast amounts of time and energy are expended writing about mostly trivial things, such as social media and entertainment, while ignoring important things like documenting our technology.

Another major contributing factor is a seemingly permanent shortage of technical talent. Only 1.4 percent of the general population is working in engineering and computer science, and fewer high school students are majoring in those areas, at a time when we have greater and greater demand for those types of technical expertise.

"Fortunately, the First Singularity is reversible," Dr. Brady said. "There are two requirements. First, we need to define best practices, and second, follow them."

Will we do what it takes to reverse the First Singularity? Maybe, but Dr. Brady's two requirements must be looked on as actual requirements, and not merely suggestions.

Next week — when artificial intelligence becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization: The Second Singularity. Dr. Brady's presentation can be viewed at youtube.com/watch?v=n-e1WXQ3VLE.

Dave Moore, CISSP, has been fixing computers in Oklahoma since 1984. Founder of the non-profit Internet Safety Group Ltd., he also teaches Internet safety community training workshops. He can be reached at 405-919-9901 or www.internetsafetygroup.org.