The Devil Is In The Details: Making Sense Of ‘The Exorcist: Believer’s $27M+ Opening After Universal & Blumhouse Shelled Out $400M For Franchise – Sunday AM Update
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SUNDAY AM: Not even the devil himself could help Universal and Blumhouse this weekend with the opening of The Exorcist: Believer. That’s after the studio bought the franchise rights for a trilogy from Morgan Creek back in July 2021 for $400M. Even though this is the best opening for an Exorcist movie with $27.2M stateside, $45.1M global, heads are low over at Universal City. However, their slide rule for determining breakeven and profitability on this particular film is being measured against Believer‘s $30M production cost. Wah? Read on.
In regards to whether the Exorcist franchise buy actually worked, that will be determined down the road after another two films are accounted for by Universal. Yeah, but where do you go from here? Correct — the next Exorcist will need to be rebooted greatly after David Gordon Green’s vision here did not resonate in a Halloween type of way, that first 2018 movie opening to a franchise best of $76.2M domestic, and the filmmaker’s three Michael Meyers films grossing a near half-billion worldwide.
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The last two installments, Halloween Kills and Halloween Ends, saw their ticket sales siphoned due to a theatrical-day-and-date on Uni streaming service Peacock. However, for Universal, Halloween was a big subscription driver. It’s why they’re going theatrical day-and-date on Blumhouse’s feature take of popular videogame, Five Nights at Freddys, on Oct. 27. The $30M spent on this Exorcist doesn’t include backends.
Seeing horror was a big driver to Peacock, Universal — in the heat of a passioned sale — took Exorcist off the table in July 2021 (when studios were still disillusioned about theatrical day-and-date in the throes of the pandemic), much in the same way Netflix or Amazon would take movies off the table, Netflix shelling out $465M for two Knives Out sequels. It’s for these reasons why Universal and Peacock bit at CAA’s auction for the IP. At the time that Uni/Peacock and Blumhouse made the deal with Morgan Creek, it was before they pivoted Halloween Kills, the second Green-directed movie, to a theatrical-day-and-date on Peacock (for the record, that movie saw a bigger opening than Exorcist: Believer here, with a $49.4M domestic start).
As we previously mentioned, this $400M purchase by Uni for Exorcist wasn’t a scenario where three movies would be produced at $133M apiece (some rival studio executives are under the impression that that’s what the deal called for). The Exorcist deal was a broader franchise driver for Uni, which included production budgets, a buyout of talent and rights backends, producer fees, rights to leverage IP across the portfolio (theme parks/Halloween Horror Nights, experiences, branding) and also to drive viewership on Peacock. Exorcist: Believer has a 45-day theatrical window before landing on Peacock. It’s possible, though there are no definite plans on the next two Exorcist movies, that they could go theatrical day and date on Peacock.
Now, a lot has obviously changed in the marketplace since this Exorcist deal was made, and the economics around these types of buyouts are significantly more strained in 2023 than they were in 2021. In the heat of the deal, what execs at Uni didn’t realize was that Exorcist isn’t Halloween. Sequels to the late 1973 William Friedkin directed-scariest movie ever in cinema never lived up to the original critically or commercially — this one at 23% with reviewers on Rotten Tomatoes. The Exorcist IP has been ripped off and copied so much that the brand is rather diluted, i.e. Screen Gems’ The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Lionsgate’s The Last Exorcism. The elements of Exorcist do not have the storied legacy as, say, Jamie Lee Curtis’ Laurie Strode and Michael Meyers.
What’s obvious is that unlike Green’s Halloween, this Exorcist really isn’t a spiritual sequel or reboot in the sense of that movie, which, of course, fans could easily smell this weekend, giving Believer a “C” CinemaScore the same as 1990’s The Exorcist III and 2004’s The Exorcist: The Beginning.
Furthermore, Ellen Burstyn’s Chris MacNeil isn’t exactly Curtis’ Strode in regards to being the last girl standing. There was a lot of back and forth in development in regards to what this Exorcist should be before settling on a plot of a single father (Oscar nominee Leslie Odom, Jr) whose only daughter gets possessed after a disappearance in the woods. Reportedly, Odom Jr. walked off the set of Exorcist: The Believer and production stopped. However, that’s less this movie’s problem than its subpar set-up.
Universal originally had the horror theatrical release date of Friday the 13th this month before AMC’s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour landed on that date. However, going earlier really wasn’t the problem here for Exorcist: Believer. It was always in the execution.
Social media analytics firm RelishMix noticed online chatter that had many piling on the rhetorical issue of remakes, as they questioned, “Why re-paint the Mona Lisa of Horror?”
While horror has been bankable during the pandemic, and this opening for Exorcist: Believer (despite coming in under tracking’s $30M projection) in the wheelhouse of other genre openings, Evil Dead ($24.5M), Smile ($22.6M), The Black Phone ($23.6M) and Nun II‘s $32.6M, many still say that this actors’ strike, and performers’ unable to promote their wares is truly weighing down on ticket sales. A studio just can’t scream these movies from the hilltops in their promotions on social media, at premieres and festivals. Consider the fact that the phenomenal results for 2018’s Halloween began when Blumhouse blasted off the movie at TIFF’s Midnight Madness.
More to the point that the lack of product and actors strike’ are having a Covid-impact at the domestic box office: This weekend’s overall ticket sales were $76.4M. Though +30% from a year ago, when Smile was in its second weekend, and product delayed led to a logjam in the post production pipeline, it’s 41% off from 2021, when theaters reopened and big tentpoles came back (that’s when Venom: Let There Be Carnage led the charts). It’s down 49% from the same first weekend October period in 2019 when The Joker drove all titles to a $150.56M result.
RelishMix further points out that while Exorcist: Believer‘s social media universe at 214.3M is 32% ahead of horror franchise comps, “The overall intensity continues to be softened by lack of late night talk, no cast at a premiere and no cast on social, but materials do include good BTS videos with the cast in place of them directly promoting the opening.” The first Exorcist: Believer trailer launched to exhibitors back at CinemaCon in April.
Whether Exorcist: Believer profits remains a question. Stateside outlook is $75M per some analysts.
Other stats from the weekend, Exorcist: Believer repped 34% of all foot traffic. Including Nun II, Saw X, Dumb Money, Equalizer 3 and Expendables 4, 55% of all moviegoers saw an R-rated film this weekend, per EntTelligence. Overall admissions for Exorcist Believer was 1.9M, which is just under Nun II‘s 2M and less than the 4M apiece which Halloween Kills and Quiet Place II pulled in. Imax B.O. on Exorcist was $2.2M.
Studio reported Sunday figures:
1.) Exorcist: Believer (Uni/Blumhouse) 3,663 theaters Fri $11.84M, Sat $9M Sun $6.3M , 3-day $27.2M/Wk 1
2.) Paw Patrol: The Might Movie (Par) 4,027 (+38) Friday of $2.88M (-58%), Sat $5M Sun $3.7M 3-day $11.75M, -48%, Total $38.8M/Wk 2
3. Saw X (LG) 3,262 theaters, Fri $2.4M (-70%) Sat $3.2M Sun $2.48M 3-day $8.15M, -55%, Total $32.5M/Wk 2
4.) The Creator (New Reg/20th/Dis) 3,680 theaters, Friday of $1.73M (-69%) Sat $2.6M Sun $1.76M 3-day of $6.1M, -56% Total $24.9M/Wk 2
5.) Blind (Fath) Fri $1M (-23%) Sat $1.2M Sun $909K 3-day $3.12M (-28%), Total $10.48M/Wk 2,
6.) A Haunting in Venice (20th/Dis) 2,425 (-360) theaters Fri $760K (-28%) Sat $1.1M Sun $792K 3-day $2.73M (-25%), Total $35.6M/Wk 4
7.) The Nun 2 (NL) Fri $735K (-46%) Sat $1.1M Sun $725K 3-day of $2.57M (-46%), Total $81.06M/Wk 5.
8.) Dumb Money (Sony) 2,837 theaters, Fri $665K (-49%) Sat $900K Sun $585K 3-day $2.15M (-35%) Total $10.6M/Wk 4
9.) The Equalizer 3 (Sony) 1,526 (-658) theaters, Fri $515K (-33%) Sat $790K Sun $530K 3-day $1.83M (-32%) Total $88.8M/Wk 6
10.) Hocus Pocus 30th Anniversary (Dis) 1,430 theaters, Fri $540K, Sat $570K Sun $432K 3-day $1.54M, Lifetime Total $46.4M/Wk 1 re-release
Notables:
She Came to Me (Vert) 355 theaters, Fri $136K Sat $130K Sun $94K , 3-day $360K/Wk 1
Royal Hotel (NEON) 267 theaters Fri $120K Sat $127K Sun $88K 3-day $335K/Wk 1
Dicks the Musical (A24/Chernin Entertainment) 7 theaters Fri $80,8K Sat $81,4K Sun $58,6K Per theater $31,5K 3-day $220,8K/Wk 1
Strange Way of Life (SPC) 276 theaters, 3-day $205K
SATURDAY AM WRITETHRU, after Friday update at 5:02 PM: Universal/Blumhouse/Morgan Creek’s The Exorcist: Believer is opening to $28M at this point in time. While that’s in the mean range of successful horror films like Evil Dead ($24.5M), Smile ($22.6M), and The Black Phone ($23.6M), and just under tracking’s $30M, it’s very far from the $76.2M 2018 opening of David Gordon Green’s Halloween. And it’s an opening that doesn’t look very good next to the $400M that the studios shelled out for the franchise, which was in a competitive situation, meaning the price kept going up and up. We’re still making heads and tails of this.
I’m told at this time that was a franchise rights buy, not solely a deal for three movies that would each cost $133M. When have you ever heard of a horror film costing that much? Never. What we’ve told you is that The Exorcist reboot was made for $30M before P&A. Friday is coming in at $11.9M at 3,663 theaters, including Thursday night’s previews of $2.85M.
Also proving to be a bad first step for the studios with the franchise: Nobody likes it. In addition to critics giving it a 20% Rotten Tomatoes score, CinemaScore gave Exorcist: The Believer a “C,” with Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak audiences hating it worse at 61%. Nearly even split of men to female at 51% male, with 58% of the audience between 18-34 and the largest demo being 24-34 at 32%, with another 34% of the crowd over 35. Latino and Hispanic audiences led at 41%, Caucasian at 30%, Black at 13%, and 15% Asian/other.
As is typical for a horror movie, Believer played best in South Central and West. IMAX and PLF screens are driving close to 40% of ticket sales so far, with the AMC Burbank close to $50K, the best in the country.
The weekend is shaping up to be $76.5M for all movies, less than $100M again. Taylor Swift, save us.
Other tidbits on specialty:
NEON’s The Royal Hotel, which had a world premiere at TIFF, is seeing $120K Friday, $303K for the 3-day at 267 theaters. The 89% certified fresh with critics, Julia Garner-Jessica Henwick mystery thriller was Ok in NYC, L.A., and Austin, but flat elsewhere in 88 markets.
The Pedro Almodovar short, Strange Way of Life from Sony Pictures Classics, clocked an estimated $77K on Friday, for a $204K 3-day in 276 locations. Some are calling sales meh, but c’mon, it’s a 31-minute film.
A24’s Dicks: The Musical at seven locations (AMC Lincoln Square, Angelika NY, Alamo Brooklyn, AMC Grove, AMC Burbank, Alamo San Fran & AMC Kabuki San Fran) didn’t see great numbers, unfortunately, for $50K yesterday and $133K for the weekend, or $19K per theater. The bawdy, raunchy musical played like gangbusters out of TIFF’s Midnight Madness, and with a SAG-AFTRA waiver, their cast was able to promote.
Exorcist: Believer (Uni/Blumhouse) 3,663 theaters Fri $11.9M, 3-day $28M/Wk 1
2. Paw Patrol: The Might Movie (Par) 4,027 (+38) Friday of $2.88M (-58%), 3-day $11.65M, -49%, Total $38.7M/Wk 2
3. Saw X (LG) 3,262 theaters, Fri $2.4M (-70%), 3-day $8M, -55%, Total $32.4M/Wk 2
4.) The Creator (New Reg/20th/Dis) 3,680 theaters, Friday of $1.73M (-69%), 3-day of $6.12M, -56% Total $24.9M/Wk 2
5.) Blind (Fath) Fri $1M (-23%), 3-day $3.67M (-15%), Total $11M/Wk 2,
6.) A Haunting in Venice (20th/Dis) 2,425 (-360) theaters Fri $760K (-28%) 3-day $2.65M (-27%), Total $35.5M/Wk 4
7.) The Nun 2 (NL) Fri $725K (-47%) , 3-day of $2.6M (-46%), Total $81M/Wk 5.
8.) Dumb Money (Sony) 2,837 theaters, Fri $665K (-49%) 3-day $2.125M (-36%)Total $10.6M/Wk 4
9.) The Equalizer 3 (Sony) 1,526 (-658) theaters, Fri $515K (-33%) 3-day $1.825M (-33%) Total $88.8M/Wk 6
10.) Hocus Pocus 30th Anniversary (Dis) 1,430 theaters, Fri $540K, 3-day $1.67M, Lifetime Total $45.9M/Wk 1 re-release
FRIDAY AM: David Gordon Green’s The Exorcist: Believer kept the horror peace train going at the box office with $2.85M in previews Thursday night on its way to a potential high-$20M-to-$30M start.
Previews began at 5 p.m. in 3,050 theaters. Universal has Imax and PLFs on this one, which is booked at 3,663 theaters.
Exorcist: Believer‘s previews are just $850K more than what Lionsgate’s Saw X pulled in last Thursday; that $13M production ended its first week very well with an estimated $24.4M. That is more than 2017’s Jigsaw aka Saw 8, which grossed a first week of $22.1M. The Twisted Pics tenthquel horror movie led the B.O. in its weekdays despite Paramount and Spin Master’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie winning last weekend.
The canine cartoon ended its first week with an estimated $27.1M. Unlike Barbenheimer this past summer, it wasn’t a Saw Patrol-type of week with moviegoers showing up dressed like Jigsaw and puppies Delores and Skype at cinemas, but it was an OK enough autumn frame at the top of the chart in the midst of an actors strike when thespians can’t promote.
The Nun 2, which Exorcist: Believer looked like demo-wise in its eyeing of 18- to-34-year-olds and older males, drew $3.1M in previews before posting $32.6M start.
While Saw X was the franchise-best with critics at 83% certified fresh, the $400M franchise pickup of Exorcist: The Believer not so much, at 20% on Rotten Tomatoes. But the Exorcist package didn’t cost that much for Universal, Peacock, Blumhouse and Morgan Creek — Exorcist: Believer itself as a feature production only cost $30M before P&A. By the way, that’s not the lowest rank for an Exorcist movie as Exorcist II: The Heretic back in 1977 has 9%, per the review aggregator site.
It’s still a far cry from Green’s reboot of Halloween in 2018, which was 79% certified fresh with critics. Halloween drew $7.7M in previews and went on to be the fourth-highest opening of October with $76.2M. Exorcist: Believer sees Ellen Burstyn’s return to the franchise as the mother of the demon-possessed child; her last appearance was in the original 1973 movie from the late William Friedkin.
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This past weekend we were originally suppose to see Sony’s start to the Marvel franchise, Kraven the Hunter, but the Culver City lot postponed the movie to next Labor Day weekend on account of the actors walkout. While less product is bad for exhibition, a smart movie on behalf of Sony which will really need that pic’s cast, including Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Ariana DeBose to prop the pic. Originally, Exorcist: Believer was suppose to open on Oct. 13, until AMC’s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour concert film made her way on the schedule, racked up crazy pre-sales, and made the Uni/Blumhouse title go a week earlier.
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Saw X saw $1.1M yesterday, -16% from Wednesday, while PAW Patrol 2 had $900K, +7%. In third was New Regency/20th Century Studios/Disney’s Gareth Edwards sci-fi movie The Creator, which posted $814K yesterday, -20% from Wednesday for a first week of $18.8M. Fathom’s The Blind was in fourth yesterday with an estimated $565K, +27% from Wednesday for a $6.5M week and a $7.3M running total. Fathom has another faith-based title breaking into the weekend, Mother Teresa & Me, which got off to an estimated $348K start yesterday in fifth place for the day.
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