Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Variety Talk Series—Will Seth Meyers End John Oliver’s Reign?
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Last Year’s Winner: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: It is one thing to point out how “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” has won this category every year since 2016, but to further belabor the point of just how much “The Daily Show With Jon Stewart” looms large over the category, that show or a show hosted by an alumni of that show has won Outstanding Variety Talk Series/Outstanding Variety Series every year since 2003. Even if John Oliver were to not win, there are still three other contenders here that could keep that monumental streak going.
Notable Ineligible Series: “Ziwe” (submitted as a Variety Sketch Series)
This article will be updated throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2022 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting took place from June 16 to June 27, with the official Emmy nominations announced on Tuesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be given out over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 3 and Sunday, September 4, with an edited presentation on the ceremonies to be broadcast on Saturday, Sept. 10, at 8:00 p.m. ET on FXX. Finally, the 74rd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 12, and air live on NBC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
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The State of the Race
Hmmmm, wonder if the show that has won the last six years in a row has a shot?
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” is a perfectly fine show, but it is hard not to be grumpy about the continued homogeneity of the Outstanding Variety Talk Series category, especially when the win has gone to “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” or one of that show’s alumni since 2003. It is fair to assume that that brand of news satire continues to have the TV Academy in a chokehold, but they did make one promising change this year.
“Late Night with Seth Meyers” received its first ever nomination in this category this year, which happened to be a season where the host started breaking more late night traditions. As small as it is, choosing to opt for a business casual dress code instead black tie did make the show seem a little looser, and is another example of Meyers making smart decisions about tailoring the show to his strengths rather than trying to emulate the late night hosts that came before him. Along those lines, another change he made a while ago was to do his monologue segment from behind his desk, a move that follows the Jon Stewart protocol more than any of the network shows.
That includes “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.” While Meyers seeks innovation, Colbert is someone from the world of cable who happens to be really good at being a super traditional late night host. His show certainly leans into politics, which has long felt like a must in order to receive a nomination in this category, but it is ultimately a little staid.
“The Daily Show with Trevor Noah” has been on a good run, especially post-COVID, but its issue is that its network Comedy Central has dwindling relevance. It and “South Park” seem to be the only Comedy Central staples left standing.
Lastly, the folks that love “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” really love it, but of these nominees, Kimmel can be the most polarizing. And he often sits out of doing his show, which provides for fun guest hosts, but offers less chances for viewers to really see how well of a host he has become.
Quick note too: It sucks to see trailblazing shows like “Full Frontal with Samantha Bee” and “Desus and Mero” end this season. They along with “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” make a great case for doing another split within the Variety categories, with one side being talk shows that air once a week, and the other side being late night shows that air nightly.
Power Rankings:
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)
“Late Night with Seth Meyers” (NBC)
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)
“The Daily Show with Trevor Noah” (Comedy Central)
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC)
Will Win: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
Could Win: “Late Night with Seth Meyers”
Should Win: “Late Night with Seth Meyers”
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