Emmy predictions: Shows based on real events will dominate the limited series field (again)
The Emmys are suckers for limited and anthology series based on true events. Since the academy made consequential tweaks to its eligibility rules in 2015, 35 limited/anthology series dramatizing real-life happenings have received at least one citation in any above- or below-the-line category. Twelve of those were nominated just last year, when a whopping 25 of 43 total slots in the above-the-line limited or anthology series/TV movie races were occupied by fact-based shows. While such a clear domination of one particular genre feels like it should be a one-off, its recurrence this year is likelier than you might think.
According to our (very) early combined odds, which are currently only forecasting the series and acting races, 18 of the 30 limited or anthology series/TV movie slots will be taken up by fact-based shows. Find these shows plus the nominations they are each expected to scoop up right below.
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“Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix) — 4 nominations
— Best Limited/Anthology Series (first place)
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Actor: Evan Peters (first place)
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Supporting Actor: Richard Jenkins (first place)
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Supporting Actress: Niecy Nash-Betts (second place)
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+) — 4 nominations
— Best Limited/Anthology Series (third place)
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Actor: Taron Egerton (second place)
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Supporting Actor (x2): Paul Walter Hauser (second place) and Ray Liotta (fourth place)
“White House Plumbers” (HBO) — 4 nominations
— Best Limited/Anthology Series (fourth place)
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Actor: Woody Harrelson (fourth place)
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Supporting Actress (x2): Lena Headey (third place) and Judy Greer (fourth place)
“George and Tammy” (Showtime) — 3 nominations
— Best Limited/Anthology Series (fifth place)
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Actress: Jessica Chastain (first place)
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Actor: Michael Shannon (third place)
“Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+) — 2 nominations
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Actress: Vera Farmiga (fifth place)
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Supporting Actress: Cherry Jones (fifth place)
“A Friend of the Family” (Peacock) — 1 nomination
— Best Limited or Anthology Series/TV Movie Supporting Actress: Anna Paquin (sixth place)
Should these early projections materialize, this year would mark the third time that four of the five Best Limited/Anthology Series slots are filled by shows based on real events. The first year in which this happened was 2019 when “Escape at Dannemora,” “Fosse/Verdon,” “When They See Us” and the eventual champ, “Chernobyl,” were shortlisted alongside one another. It then occurred again last year when “Dopesick,” “The Dropout,” “Inventing Anna” and “Pam and Tommy” battled it out.
SEE 2023 Emmys: 10 most anticipated Best Limited Series contenders
Of course, it’s still very early in the season, and the field is likely to change as contenders premiering in the spring enter the fray. It’s worth noting that all the aforementioned series minus “White House Plumbers” — which is, as of this writing, expected to debut sometime in March but still doesn’t have an exact launch date — came out sometime last year (“George and Tammy” is the only one that aired into this year). Although it’s not inconceivable for these early-birds to sustain momentum until Emmy voting begins on June 15, it would be unprecedented for them to completely govern the limited or anthology series/TV movie races. So, be prepared to see some late-breakers surge in the upcoming months, including, potentially, additional shows based on real events, such as HBO Max’s “Love and Death” (which stars Elizabeth Olsen as accused axe murderer Candy Montgomery and premieres on April 27).
PREDICT the 2023 Emmy nominees through July 12
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