Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor in a Drama Series – A Big Snub is Waiting in the Wings, But Who Will It Be?

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UPDATED: June 23, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

Voicing his villainous Thanos in the animated series, “What If…,” Josh Brolin has received best-in-show notices for his work as Royal Abbott in Amazon Prime Video’s inaugural series “Outer Range.” Gifted and respected in acting circles, he looks to nab his first Emmy if he can stay above the robust slate of contenders.

A former Emmy winner for another western, “Hatfields & McCoys” in 2012, Kevin Costner is part of the wave built for Paramount Network’s drama “Yellowstone,” which has been helped by the touch of Taylor Sheridan and his other limited series, “1883.” The Oscar-winner of “Dances with Wolves” stands a decent shot of landing in the field.

Being a two-time Emmy winner for “The People v O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story” and for the inaugural season for “This Is Us,” Sterling K. Brown is automatically in the running for the broadcast drama’s final season. In addition, he has been nominated for each of the seasons thus far, and until proven otherwise, he’s a familiar name that will indeed have checkmarks from the TV Academy.

Kendall Roy is embedded in our television soul, and that’s because Jeremy Strong gives his all to every character beat and scene he takes on. Already an Emmy winner for the second season of HBO’s “Succession,” along with a very publicly debated profile in the New Yorker (that rallied the community to support him), that respect has only grown and could catapult him to frontrunner status by the end of awards season.

Courtesy of Graeme Hunter/HBO

Logan Roy leads with an iron fist in HBO’s beloved drama series, and at the helm is veteran actor Brian Cox, who shockingly missed out on a nom for the first season. Hitting his stride in season three, the Emmy-winner (supporting actor limited series or movie for “Nuremberg” in 2001) looks to face off again with his co-star Strong, hoping not to split votes.

It’s a double dose of Tom Hiddleston with his limited series “The Essex Serpent,” but his better shot at an Emmy nom seems to be with his whimsical and much-loved “Loki” from Disney+. With a second season coming down the pike, the two-time Emmy nominee (for limited series and lead actor limited for “The Night Manager” in 2016) could surprise with his popularity in Hollywood.

It helps that “Severance” gives off some serious first season of “The Handmaid’s Tale” vibes, which became the first streaming show to win the TV Academy’s top prize. But, of course, that will only help star Adam Scott, who got a terrific start in comedy ventures but proved he’s more than chuckles as a man trying to piece together the mystery of his double life in the Apple TV+ series.

Jason Bateman, the acclaimed actor, director and producer, has an Emmy on his shelf for directing an episode of “Ozark” in 2018. In the final season, he could get caught in a narrative wave to give his and his co-star Laura Linney their overdue statuettes for their towering performances. Marty Byrde is now a staple in television history.

Winning the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild prizes, Lee Jung-jae has managed to blow past his more well-known competitors and deliver memorable speeches. With “Squid Game” likely to contend for the evening’s most coveted prize, outstanding drama series, the breakout star could get caught in a sweep that streamer Netflix demonstrated last year with “The Crown.” His directorial debut “Hunt” also premiered at Cannes, which certainly helps some.

The incredible Bob Odenkirk does have two Emmy Awards for writing (“Saturday Night Live” and “The Ben Stiller Show”). Still, his iconic portrayal of Jimmy McGill in AMC’s “Better Call Saul” has yet to get the proper recognition. With the first half of the final season in the books, and the second half set to air during final nomination voting, the charismatic star could get the Jon Hamm treatment and finally take home the Emmy prize.

Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub.

The nomination round of voting runs from June 16 to June 27. The official nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced Tuesday, July 12.

The list of programs and potential nominees listed below is incomplete and is subject to change. The full television awards season calendar is linked here.

2021 category winner: Josh O’Connor, “The Crown” (Netflix)

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

Richard Foreman/Amazon Prime Video

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Lead Actor Drama)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television's most prestigious artistic award. Many records have been held for wins and nominations in the near eight decades.

For wins: Bryan Cranston (AMC's "Breaking Bad") and Dennis Franz (ABC's "NYPD Blue") hold the record for the most wins in this category with four, with the former winning three consecutively and the latter two. Five actors have won three times -- Bill Cosby, Peter Falk, James Gandolfini, James Spader and Robert Young.

Four actors have been nominated in this category eight times - Raymond Burr, Peter Falk, Dennis Franz, and Jon Hamm. James Garner has the second most nods with seven. Michael C. Hall, Hugh Laurie, Martin Sheen and Kiefer Sutherland have the most nominations at six, without winning (although Sheen has won an Emmy for guest actor in a comedy series for "Murphy Brown" in 1994).

"NYPD Blue" has the leading series to have nominations in this category with 14, followed by "St. Elsewhere" at 10 and "Columbo," "Law & Order" and "Mad Men" at eight apiece.

2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

• Outstanding Drama Series

  • Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

  • Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

  • Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

  • Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

  • Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

  • Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

• Outstanding Comedy Series

  • Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

  • Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

• Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

  • Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series or Anthology Series or Movie

  • Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special

• Outstanding Competition Program

• Outstanding Variety Talk Series

  • Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

  • Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

  • Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

• Outstanding Television Movie

• Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

• Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series

• Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

• Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

• Outstanding Reality Host

• Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series

• Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series

• Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special

• Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

• Outstanding Animated Program

• Outstanding Short Form Animated Program

• Outstanding Voice-Over Performance

• Outstanding Narrator

• Outstanding Structured Program

• Outstanding Unstructured Program

• Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series

• Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special

• Outstanding Documentary Filmmaking

• Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special

• Outstanding Main Title Design

• Outstanding Main Title Theme Music

• Outstanding Music for Series

• Outstanding Music for Limited Series

• Outstanding Music and Lyrics

• Outstanding Music Supervision

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes - Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

• The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.

Best of Variety

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• Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress in a Comedy Series - Selena Gomez's Mabel in 'Only Murders' Is Emmy Worthy and It Shouldn't Be Ignored

• Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress in a Drama Series - Zendaya Set to Make Emmys History With 'Euphoria'

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