Emmy odds: Will Bob Odenkirk FINALLY break ‘Better Call Saul’ curse by winning Best Drama Actor?
“Better Call Saul” has been nominated for a remarkable 46 Emmys over the course of its run, but just as remarkably the show hasn’t won a single one of them. Can Bob Odenkirk break that curse this year by winning Best Drama Actor for the show’s final episodes? It would be fitting since the drama’s parent series, “Breaking Bad,” also won big for its last season.
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As of this writing Brian Cox (“Succession”) is the front-runner to win Best Drama Actor according to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users as of this writing, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Cox has yet to win for his role as ruthless patriarch Logan Roy on the HBO corporate series. In 2020 he lost to his co-star Jeremy Strong, and in 2022 he and Strong both fell to Lee Jung-jae (“Squid Game”). There’s always the risk that Cox and Strong will split votes, which might have helped Lee prevail last year and might benefit Odenkirk now.
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The only group with a majority currently predicting Cox to win is actually our Experts, though only five of those elite journalists have chimed in so far. Gold Derby’s Editors are evenly split between him and Odenkirk, while majorities of our Top 24 Users and All-Star Top 24 back Odenkirk. So it’s mainly the Experts bolstering Cox’s odds at the moment.
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Odenkirk is coming off a Critics Choice win for Best Drama Actor; “Better Call Saul” also won Best Drama Series at those awards. He lost the SAG Award to Jason Bateman (“Ozark”), but his show is off the air, so Odenkirk won’t have to face him at the Emmys this year. And while Odenkirk lost the Golden Globe to Kevin Costner (“Yellowstone”), the TV academy has yet to embrace “Yellowstone” in any significant way. So the path may be clear for Odenkirk the way it was for “Breaking Bad,” which in 2014 won Best Drama Series and Best Drama Actor (Bryan Cranston) for its swan song.
However, “Breaking Bad” was already an Emmy winner by the time it went off the air, so it might be a steeper climb for a show like “Saul” that has yet to win a trophy anywhere. But TV academy members should know, it’s now or never.
PREDICTthe 2023 Emmy nominees through July 12
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