Emmy flashback: You want to talk about upsets over the years? Great, let’s talk

I laugh when I hear people talk about how “Succession” is a sure thing winner for Best Drama Series and that it’s such a lock nothing whatsoever can derail it. Ha! Ha I say! Oh, it’s naturally going to be nominated and will likely remain the overwhelming frontrunner clear through Emmy season and up to Emmy night, all right. In the Gold Derby combined Emmy odds, it’s running away with this race, with “The White Lotus” Sicily” a very distant second. But if Emmy history has taught us anything, it’s that upsets happen, even giant ones. So you can absolutely never say never.

What upsets are we talking about? Well, let’s flash back and check out 15 of them, shall we?

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• 1952: “The Red Skelton Hour” beats “I Love Lucy” for “Best Comedy Show” – “Lucy” was already a phenomenon that would win this award in both 1953 and ’54. But in its first year of eligibility, it lost out to Skelton, rather unbelievably. The prevailing wisdom at the time was that if anything were going to upset “I Love Lucy,” it would be “The George Burns and Gracie Allen Show.” But it too lost.

• 1967: “The Monkees” wins over “Bewitched,” “Get Smart,” “Hogan’s Heroes” and “The Andy Griffith Show” for top comedy series – This was pretty much as unbelievable then as it sounds today. It was the “Monkees” first year of eligibility, and the show about the fake pop music band wound up taking the trophy over four classic comedies. Why? How? Because upsets happen.

• 1982: “Barney Miller” prevails over “Taxi” and “M*A*S*H” in comedy series – “Taxi” had won here three years in a row (1979. ’80 and ’81), but it couldn’t make it four because “Barney Miller” came out of nowhere to win. “Barney” had 31 Emmy noms and only three victories to show for it throughout its life on the air, but this was one of them.

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• 1989: Richard Mulligan (“Empty Nest) knocks off John Goodman (“Roseanne”), Michael J. Fox (“Family Ties”), Fred Savage (“The Wonder Years”) and Ted Danson (“Cheers”) for lead actor in a comedy – I happened to be in the Emmy press room the night this happened, and the shock from my media colleagues was palpable – so palpable that I still feel it in my bones. Mulligan was handicapped as fifth out of five. Fox had just won here three consecutive years, and if he didn’t make it four, Danson was thought to be overdue. Instead, it was Danson’s seventh straight loss. The “Cheers” star would need to wait until the following year to win.

• 1992: Craig T. Nelson (“Coach”) snatches the gold over Burt Reynolds (“Evening Shade”), Goodman (“Roseanne”), Danson (“Cheers”), Kelsey Grammer (“Wings”)  and Jerry Seinfeld (“Seinfeld”) for lead comedy actor – With so many category heavyweights, Nelson was predicted to bring up the rear. Goodman earned six noms for “Roseanne” but could never cash one in.

• 1994: “Picket Fences” upsets “NYPD Blue” for Best Drama Series – “NYPD Blue” was the heaviest of favorites, having pulled in an astonishing 27 Emmy nominations in its first season. But David E. Kelley’s Little Drama That Could, did, pulling off a major surprise to everyone but Tom O’Neil, Gold Derby’s editor, president and founder – who predicted it.

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• 1999: “The Practice” shoots down “The Sopranos” in drama series – Producer Kelley struck again here, pulling off perhaps an even bigger shocker than his “Picket Fences” triumph when “The Practice” took down another massively hot (and now-legendary) series in its first year of eligibility in “The Sopranos.”

• 2004: “Arrested Development” takes the comedy series prize over “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” “Everybody Loves Raymond,” “Sex and the City” and “Will & Grace” – In its debut season, “Arrested” knocked off some formidable comedy juggernauts, to the surprise of pretty much everyone. It wasn’t that the Fox show wasn’t worthy. It’s just that it was barely watched by anyone. This proved a rare example of quality being rewarded instead of punished.

• 2007: James Spader (“Boston Legal”) gets the drama lead actor gold over James Gandolfini (“The Sopranos”) – This was The Year of the Upset in pretty much all of the acting categories. One was Kelley’s “Boston Legal” lead Spader taking the gold over Gandolfini, who was admittedly already a three-time victor. Spader’s win was expected by approximately no one.

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• 2007: Ricky Gervais (“Extras”) bests Steve Carell (“The Office”), Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock”), Tony Shalhoub (“Monk”) and Charlie Sheen (“Two and a Half Men” for comedy lead actor – In the second of the 2007 shockeroos, Gervais beat out the stiffest of competition to win out over everyone including Shalhoub, who was looking to threepeat at the time.

• 2007: America Ferrera (“Ugly Betty”) snatches the Comedy Lead Actress statuette from Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“The New Adventures of Old Christine”), Felicity Huffman (“Desperate Housewives”), Tina Fey (“30 Rock”) and Mary-Louise Parker (“Weeds”) – The last of the 2007 surprises found Ferrera locking horns with four major comedy vets in Louis-Dreyfus, Huffman, Fey and Parker – and beating them all in her first nomination.

• 2010: Kyra Sedgwick (“The Closer”) upends Glenn Close (“Damages”), Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife”), January Jones (“Mad Men”), Mariska Hargitay (“Law & Order: SVU”) and Connie Britton (“Friday Night Lights”) for drama lead actress – It was widely expected that one of the nominees from a critically lauded drama would snatch the Emmy, rather than one from a less-prestigious procedural like “The Closer.” But Sedgwick nonetheless closed the others out.

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• 2011: Kyle Chandler (“Friday Night Lights”) knocks off Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”) and Hugh Laurie (“House”), among others, for the lead drama actor crown – Quite simply, this was expected to be Hamm’s race to lose – and lose he did. It was his fourth nomination and thought to be his best shot yet at victory, submitting for the classic episode “The Suitcase.” Instead, it was Chandler for the upset, and it wasn’t until 2015 that Hamm finally took the prize. Laurie is still looking for his first.

• 2019: Julia Garner carts off the Emmy for drama supporting actress over four “Game of Thrones” performers: Lena Headey, Maisie Williams,  Gweldoline Christy and Sophie Turner – Yes, following “Game of Thrones'” final season, the HBO Emmy juggernaut placed a quartet of performers in supporting. It was presumed one of them would win. Instead, in a classic vote-splitting scenario, Garner slipped through for the victory.

• 2022: Lee Jung-jae (“Squid Game”) upsets Brian Cox (“Succession”), Jeremy Strong (“Succession”), Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”), Adam Scott (“Severance”) and Jason Bateman (“Ozark”) for lead drama actor – It wasn’t that South Korean actor Jung-jae didn’t deserve to win. Anyone who watched “Squid Game” could vouch for his heartbreaking ability to command the screen. It’s just that his competition was so powerful, it was assumed one of those heavy hitters would triumph. It was not to be.

PREDICT the 2023 Emmy nominees through July 12

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