Emmy Experts Typing: Can ‘Succession’ overcome a triple vote-split in Best Drama Actor?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss the drama races post-nominations.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back, Hollywood is on strike, and the 2023 Emmy Awards ceremony might even take place in 2024 because what better way for the television academy and its broadcast partner to stay relevant than by potentially giving Jeremy Allen White the Best Comedy Actor award for “The Bear” Season 1 roughly 19 months after “The Bear” Season 1 premiered — all while he’s also winning honors for “The Bear” Season 2 at competing awards ceremonies? Good stuff. What I mean is that we could be typing about this week’s 2023 Emmy nominees for quite a while. So let’s start with the drama categories, which left many online observers pressed because of the focus on “Succession” (27 nominations), “The Last of Us,” (24 nominations) and “The White Lotus” (23 nominations). That trio of HBO shows dominated the proceedings and, in some categories, were the only game in town. Take Best Drama Supporting Actor, where four “Succession” stars and four “The White Lotus” actors grabbed the eight slots. Of the 16 potential supporting nominees, 14 went to either “Succession” or “The White Lotus.” Vanity Fair called this hyper-focus on two shows a “frankly extraordinary failure on the part of this voting body, and a sad result under a restricted ballot.” My take was the opposite since the only “failure” to me were snubs of deserved “The White Lotus” performers like Tom Hollander, Haley Lu Richardson, Beatrice Granno, and “Succession” fave Justine Lupe. All of which is to type that the best dramas dominated the drama categories because those were the best dramas. And the bestest drama is “Succession.” We’ve both got it down to win a ton, at least in our extremely early predictions, including drama series, drama actor for Kieran Culkin, drama actress for Sarah Snook, drama supporting actor for Matthew Macfadyen, and drama writing and directing. This doesn’t make for great debate, perhaps, but it feels like we’re both slight rebels for putting Culkin over Jeremy Strong or vote-split options like Pedro Pascal or Bob Odenkirk. So tell me, Joyce, why are you so ready serve good ol’ Roman a victory martini?

joyceeng: The “failure” is actually on the studios for churning out 822,496 shows (“content”) in the streaming wars — and not paying people fairly for their work — that no one has time to watch. That, of course, does not excuse the voters’ inherent laziness, which was only amplified by three of the biggest shows of the season competing in the same genre. Shout-out to the drama actress category for having six (!) different shows represented. Anyway, hard to say we’re “rebels” when Culkin is first in the odds, and this is not a Olivia Colman/Lena Headey/Cherry Jones head-scratcher. But there are definitely people who find this pick — or any “Succession” guy — baffling. I know the Pascal and “Last of Us” stans are feeling amazing after their dude snagged three nominations on his own, ostensibly fueling the argument that he’ll win drama actor in a “Succession” vote-split. He can for sure win, but I don’t think it’s the same as last year when Lee Jung-jae won. To me, that win was less of him benefiting from Strong and Brian Cox vote-splitting and more passion for Lee and “Squid Game.” There is obviously passion for “The Last of Us” and Pascal but I’d say more for him in general as a “celebrity” than necessarily his performance (Bella Ramsey MVP), and I’d argue that Culkin inspired a lot more passion for his performance while “Succession” was airing. #neverforget Sarah Paulson calling it the “performance of the year” after “Kill List” (though she will probably vote for her BFF Pedro). Strong predictably came on, uh, strong at the end, but if you ask most people, they’ll say Season 4 belonged to Culkin and Snook. I also don’t feel like there was as much urgency, or whatever you wanna call it, to award Strong or Cox last year because “Succession” was ongoing, but now, everyone knows this is the last chance to award these people from a show they love. Odenkirk is never gonna win an Emmy for “Better Call Saul,” and it sucks. But I appreciate the 200-and-change people who believe. It was clear Team BCS knew last year was its best shot to win any category with the final six episodes airing over the summer, and they campaigned hard to no avail. So now “Better Call Saul” is destined to go 0-53. I said the other day that I was gonna put Rhea Seehorn in second in supporting actress. I lied; I put her in third. I have J. Smith-Cameron in second — a distant second to Jennifer Coolidge. Had Gerri’s presence not been so diminished in Season 4 — it did not serve her interests — JSC could’ve given chase to JCool with how strong “Succession” is and as the only “Succession” nominee there.

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Christopher Rosen: #NoDisrespectToBenAffleck and certainly none to Smith-Cameron, but this wasn’t the Gerri season on “Succession,” despite her powerhouse performance in “Living+.” I have her in fourth place, behind Coolidge, Seehorn and my personal pick in the drama supporting actress category, Meghann Fahy. But here’s my galaxy brain take for Smith-Cameron to win — by the time we make our final Emmy winner picks around New Year’s Eve (lol), I could see my “Succession” acting sweep all but assured. We’ve talked about this (™), but neither of us thought Coolidge was revelatory in “The White Lotus” Season 1. Her performance in Season 2, at least for me, was much more rewarding and impactful. So it goes to reason that she’d win for what, at least for me, was better work in Season 2. But she’s not only facing off against Smith-Cameron for the final season of “Succession” and Seehorn for her last gasp of “Better Call Saul,” but her own castmate in Fahy — who, I’d argue, gave a better performance than any of the wonderful nominees from “The White Lotus” who Coolidge defeated last year and was also the Season 2 MVP among the show’s ardent fans. So is it possible that Fahy forces more of a vote-split than Coolidge had to battle against in 2022? I’d say yes, which then opens the door for Smith-Cameron or even Seehorn to win. Again, I’m not going to predict this yet — I’ve got months to flip-flop — but if you’re out there figuring Pascal could win because “Succession” fans will have a hard time deciding between Culkin and Strong, you should also consider the same possibility in drama supporting actress. The voters are lazy, yes, but they have a history of paying attention to the shows they love — that’s how, I’d argue, Macfadyen won last year despite many people going for Culkin (Season 3, of course, was Team Tom). We’re focusing on the main Emmys ceremony for this column, Joyce, and like I typed earlier, we both have “Succession” winning for directing — Mark Mylod for “Connor’s Wedding” — even though the show has to overcome itself x2. Why do you think “Succession” can win there to buck history?

joyceeng: Against my better judgment and Emmy history since 2015, I do have Mylod prevailing. I never predicted “Succession” to win directing last year since no show under this system has overcome a three-way split in directing yet, but as we’ve discussed, the circumstances are different this year. “The Disruption,” “Too Much Birthday” and “All the Bells Say” are superbly helmed episodes, but none were directing standouts the way “Connor’s Wedding” is (no shade to “America Decides” and “Living+”). Before the season premiered, the actors had teased a 27-minute “one take” and we had barely pre-grieved Logan’s death before we were flooded with interviews by the cast and Mylod about how they pulled it off. I’m pretty sure Mylod has done more interviews in the past three months than he had done in the first three seasons. This is obviously their directing push (I don’t even think they actively had a directing focus last year). And beyond the technical achievements, “Connor’s Wedding” is the pivotal episode of the season (the series?) that everyone knows — so much so that it was Jesse Armstrong‘s writing submission instead of the series finale, “With Open Eyes,” which I’d argue is more of a writing triumph. They’re putting all their chips in on “Connor’s Wedding,” and I don’t blame them. But if “Succession” falls to the triple vote-split again, “The White Lotus” and “The Last of Us” are primed to be the beneficiaries. Mike White won directing last year in limited, which we had talked about as a coattail win since “The White Lotus” was sweeping and it’s not really seen as a directing achievement. He couldn’t win the DGA in comedy over my guy Bill Hader. “The Last of Us” is competing with its own killer third episode, “Long, Long Time,” and I think that may be more competitive. It feels more like reigning champ “Squid Game” than “The White Lotus” does. Of “Succession’s” two above-the-line triple-nominee categories, directing is dicier than actor. We’ve been cautious in not being overconfident in Snook’s chances, given voters’ apparent distaste for “unlikable” female characters, but after how Season 4 unfolded and the drama actress category shook out, it’s hard to see that trophy not being hers. Or have I just jinxed her?

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Christopher Rosen: We’ve talked about this (™), and while Shiv definitely reads as “unlikable” — whatever that even means; sometimes I think it just means “is a woman” — I do wonder if that isn’t the reality. Shiv’s final season moves probably engendered her some goodwill — after all, she might be “unlikable” but Kendall is a real effboi (not to me, naturally, I love him) — and I think voters were probably rooting for her in the end. If Snook were to lose, it would obviously be to Ramsey, who is awesome on “The Last of Us” and every bit the kind of breakout “discovery” voters would like to embrace. But, again, if you loved “Succession” enough to give it 27 nominations for its final season and are already giving Macfadyen another Emmy, how do you not reward Snook for her unbelievable work in the final episodes? Wouldn’t be me! Let’s wrap here with a brief look at Best Drama Supporting Actor, where the eight guys from two shows will battle it out and Tom Wambsgans will emerge victorious, as he is prone to do. If you had to rank the “Succession” guys, who goes behind Macfadyen in the runner-up spot?

joyceeng: Ngl, I considered just locking in Matty in first and moving on. No offense to these gentlemen — as you know, I stan several of them — but does the order after him really matter? Alas, I put Eldest Son Alan Ruck in second because he deserves and I’m so happy he can finally call himself an Emmy nominee. The Conheads are coming. He has fantastic moments in “Rehearsal” and “Connor’s Wedding,” the latter of which is, obviously, named after his character, so that sorta keeps him top of mind. Then I have Alexander Skarsgard and Nicholas Braun. Yes, I stacked the “Succession” guys and then the “White Lotus” fellas (Will Sharpe being the top one). The “Succession” men just feel stronger as a whole. And as we’ve talked about, we both prefer the “White Lotus” Season 2 women over the men, and none of them were a breakout fave the way Murray Bartlett was. If this were 4×4 basketball, Team Waystar all the way.

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