Emmy Experts Typing: What can stop a ‘Ted Lasso’ three-peat?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, as “The Great” returns and “The Bear” locks in its Season 2 premiere date, we revisit comedy.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back and ready to talk about comedy. Are we having fun yet? Yes, that’s a reference to my beloved “Party Down,” a complete long shot show that I added to my Best Comedy Series picks this week on a lark because, well, I love it and it deserves to be there. But assuming that doesn’t happen — good assumption! — Best Comedy Series does feel pretty stable at this point. To briefly become Frances Fisher for a second, “Ted Lasso,” “Abbott Elementary,” “The Bear,” “Barry,” “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” and “Only Murders in the Building” are all but guaranteed a slot in this year’s race. That leaves the final two positions for “Poker Face” and “Wednesday” (at least according to our combined odds) — although I’ve got “Shrinking” and “Party Down” represented there in my picks. Beyond those four, other likely contenders include “What We Do In the Shadows,” “Reservation Dogs,” “The Great” (back this week!), “Atlanta” and “Ghosts.” I’m not sure what will ultimately get in here beyond the obvious six — I could make a case for all of them or none of them — but I am very curious about what happens at the top. This week’s “Ted Lasso” was another one that seemingly polarized viewers — and even professed fans of the show have been left scratching their heads about where this season might go. It feels like “Ted” could be ripe for a takedown, but then I’m not sure anything else really has enough juice to take it down. The people’s choice is “Abbott Elementary,” but as we’ve discussed previously (“as we’ve discussed previously,” our favorite running phrase), the show arguably underperformed in the winter awards and with the industry. Depending on its second season, which debuts in June, “The Bear” could find itself in the pole position come July — especially if “Ted” doesn’t stick the landing on its final episodes. But with all that typed, I’d still be surprised if either ultimately won — even if “Ted” might lose in Best Comedy Actor and Best Comedy Supporting Actress to those two competitors. So I’m sticking with “Ted Lasso,” believing as it were that academy voters will still find the whole of the season greater than the sum of its lengthy episodes. But what do you think about this race right now?

joyceeng: As we’ve discussed previously™, the way we debated “Ted’s” possible vulnerability last year applies more this year. I think fans and critics at the beginning of the season were allowing the show some latitude to find its footing (only four episodes were available for review) and it hasn’t quite done that despite asking viewers to set aside up to 63 minutes a week for it. Nate’s wonky redemption arc, in particular, is testing people’s patience, and now with three episodes left (forever?), it’s running out of time to redeem itself. “Ted” still excels at executing warm and fuzzy, make-you-cry individual moments, even if they don’t always work if you step outside of your feels for a second. I think that’s key: Are voters gonna take a larger view of the season and its serialized plots or are they still gonna be wiping away their tears from Roy’s emotional press conference? Are they even frustrated by the same things fans are frustrated by? So that’s a lotta rambling to say, yes, I think that “Ted’s” individual parts can still carry it across the line. I would have “The Bear” in first already if it weren’t for the fact that it’s not a barrel of LOLZ. When it comes to the win, voters still go with lighter material. But it does have a lot of passion and Season 2 dropping next month will help. “Abbott” would really need to pick up some below-the-line nominations (like editing) to show its strength. Last year, it missed directing and this year, I think “The Bear” could win directing (even though you know my heart lies with Bill Hader). In terms of the overall lineup, I’m just keeping “What We Do in the Shadows” and “Poker Face” in there for the time being, but I’m not sure about either of them. “Wednesday” has the viewership and visibility. “Shrinking” could be the “Ted” heir apparent but without the 20 noms. I would love to add “The Great,” but it’s never been nominated for series before and I don’t know how to feel about its late premiere. As I mentioned the other day, I did add Elle Fanning back. Huzzah?

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Christopher Rosen: You have Fanning and Nicholas Hoult getting nominated once again and, hey, it worked before. I’m fell hard enough for “Shrinking” that I think it could get multiple acting nominations, including Jason Segel in Best Comedy Actor (sorry to Nicky Hoult) and Harrison Ford in Best Comedy Supporting Actor. (I’m sticking with Selena Gomez in Best Comedy Actress but did swap in Fanning in place of Natasha Lyonne.) The unspoken thing about “Ted” is something you just wrote: By most accounts, the Season 3 finale will serve as some kind of conclusive ending. All signs point to Ted deciding to leave AFC Richmond, and that would make a lot of sense — and it would help explain the Nate arc since he would likely be the guy to take over. So if this is the “final season” of “Ted Lasso” as we know it, there’s an even greater chance academy voters just give it one last win for the road. Plus, based on the writers’ strike and how long it took Season 3 to come together, even if there is a “Ted Lasso” Season 4 in the future, new episodes might not air until 2025. I don’t know that Emmy voters think this far ahead, but it’s easy to imagine either “Abbott” or “The Bear” winning in 2024 so “Ted” should have the upper hand. Anyway! I wanted to ask you about Best Comedy Supporting Actor because right now I’m one of only three experts who have bucked conventional wisdom about Tony Shalhoub. I took him out of my picks altogether in an effort to keep Chris Perfetti, Phil Dunster and Ebon Moss-Bachrach among my predictions. I’m thinking there’s just likely more passion for those three performances than there is for Shalhoub at the moment, despite his Emmys history. Besides, he’s probably the third most prominent supporting actor on “Mrs. Maisel” in these final days after Michael Zegen and Reid Scott. I assume you think this is reckless and foolish, so please type me back into predicting the former winner who has never missed a nomination for “Maisel.”

joyceeng: This is like when you briefly dropped “Ozark” from drama series last year for… no reason. But speaking of “Ozark,” Shalhoub, Rachel Brosnahan and Alex Borstein feel like the “Ozark” core trio of Jason Bateman, Laura Linney and Julia Garner, from whom voters never deviated once they were in the club. Both shows have had trouble scoring nominations for its regular cast members outside of them. “Ozark” never did (at least Tom Pelphrey got that guest nom last year). And though Marin Hinkle is a two-time nominee for “Maisel,” Zegen has yet to be nominated, all the while they tossed a supporting nom to Sterling K. Brown after he was forced out of guest. I also suspect that even though “Maisel” is not the “cool, hot show” anymore, it still has its fans, who perhaps are less vocal in their support. Perfetti, Dunster and EMB are a solid trio to take a flyer on (I have two of them), but all three could easily miss as well and I would hardly be surprised. I still have Brett Goldstein in first here, and he got an Emmy clip this week, though I’m obviously pulling for Anthony Carrigan, who delivered a GOAT performance in the fourth episode of “Barry” (and is back in Sunday’s episode in the sickest green suit I ever did see). But the more realistic upset pick is Tyler James Williams. Where do you stand on “Abbott’s” Educator of the Year?

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Christopher Rosen: I stand with him firmly in second place behind Goldstein. I would argue even “Ted” fans who have found fault with this season would call Goldstein innocent: He’s always good for a big laugh and he’s had enough weighty material to stand out. But if voters are pot committed to “Abbott” then is it possible our favorite teachers win four acting awards this year — Quinta Brunson, Williams, Sheryl Lee Ralph and Taraji P. Henson? And if that happens, would anything stop “Abbott” from winning series too? I guess let me leave you with that thought: Are we maybe sleeping on a “Succession”-like juggernaut in plain sight?

joyceeng: No, because I don’t think “Succession” is sweeping (HBO is) and I don’t think “Abbott” would either. “Abbott” can win, obviously, but it’s going to need more than the acting branch, its top supporters, to get it there since everyone votes for the program awards. “Mare of Easttown” won three acting awards and lost series to the bigger crafts player. “Abbott” isn’t going to get the most nominations, but it needs the right ones, and if it does get them, it can totally school “Ted.”

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