Emmy Experts Typing: Can Sarah Snook win in lead?

Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·10 min read
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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we appraise Sarah Snook‘s prospects in the Best Drama Actress race.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! What a week for the Roys. Just hours after we discussed Kieran Culkin shifting over from Best Drama Supporting Actor to Best Drama Actor for his incredible performance on the final season of “Succession,” Sarah Snook decided to return to the Best Drama Actress race for the first time since Season 1. Snook’s decision — which trickled out via unnamed sources across the trade sites on Wednesday evening with the appearance of a shared break — is one we’ve speculated about since before the season even started and makes a whole lot of sense. Not only has Snook delivered as Shiv Roy throughout the final season — from her fraught relationship with her estranged husband, Tom, to dealing with Logan’s death to her unexpected pregnancy, Shiv has had a lot of weighty material this year — but Best Drama Actress is wide-open spaces. Other than Melanie Lynskey, no other 2022 Emmy nominees will return for 2023. Suffice it to say, I immediately pushed Snook to the top of my Best Drama Actress picks. I’ve been waiting for her official entry into that race and was more than happy to launch her straight to the front. But here’s the rub: I’d argue Lynskey has been better on Season 2 of “Yellowjackets” than she was during her acclaimed turn in Season 1, and Bella Ramsey is a formidable contender for their work on “The Last of Us.” So it’s not totally smooth sailing for Snook, particularly because — as we’ve discussed — a lot of people (men) don’t seem to love Shiv. I don’t think the final season has “humanized” her (she was never not humanized and Jesse Armstrong is actually too smart to write like that anyway), but I’d argue the various personal issues she’s had to contend with has allowed Snook to show a few different sides to her work. But maybe she’s just too cold to connect? And if so, do academy members go elsewhere — perhaps to Lynskey or Ramsey? While you tell me why that’s wrong, please also tell me what might happen in Best Drama Supporting Actress now that Snook is gone. Will Jennifer Coolidge just steamroll or can Rhea Seehorn finally win for “Better Call Saul”?

joyceeng: This was obviously coming after Culkin’s upgrade (and comments). Three years ago, I said it was the right move for Snook to drop to supporting for Season 2, but now it is absolutely the correct call for her to go back to lead. The CE-Bros and Shiv are the leads this season, especially now with Logan gone, and it’s really a question of whether Snook can win. If you asked me three months ago, I would’ve said probably not, for the reason we’ve discussed ad nauseam, but “Connor’s Wedding” was the game-changer here. People (men) might still find Shiv annoying or loved it when she ate it on the steps or think her earlobes are thick and chewy like barnacle meat as well, but you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who was not affected by Snook’s performance in that wallop of an episode. I’d argue that the moment that sticks with you the most from “Connor’s Wedding” is when her voice cracks as she says, “Daddy?” into the phone. Snook so perfectly captured the swirling chaos, confusion, shock, anger and regret that wash over you upon learning the sudden death of a loved one — never mind the fact that said loved one was someone with whom she had a, uh, complex relationship and whom she had basically told to “f— off” 12 hours prior. I’m sure she will deliver God-tier work in the remaining episodes (we still have that Shiv-Tom confrontation upcoming), but, again, it’s difficult not to immediately recall this episode and this moment for her when talking about Season 4. The fact that this is the last season and the show being bigger and buzzier than ever could push her over the edge as well. And to be fair, she’s only ever lost to one person, twice: Julia Garner. For all we know, Snook could’ve placed second in 2020 and 2022. The only lead contender she’s faced anywhere before is Elisabeth Moss at the SAG Awards in 2022, but both of them lost, so that’s a wash, and the “Handmaid’s Tale” star is not an automatic nominee at the Emmys either, having missed for the third season. Lynskey and Ramsey are great, but even the former is a Snook stan. In “Yellowjackets'” case, I’d say Sophie Nélisse is the MVP this season and it would be hella cool if both Shaunas made the cut. Snook’s defection from supporting doesn’t really change much from a winner perspective because Coolidge will likely take it with ease. If you recall, Seehorn is a “category TBD” (still is as of today, per AMC), so she could go lead as well. “Better Call Saul” is sadly destined to go Emmy-less because I can’t have nice things, but supporting is probably the safest category for her to just to get a nomination. J. Smith-Cameron is expected to get in again, so with Snook gone, will “Succession” be able to pull in another supporting actress? This week was light on Queen Willa, but Justine Lupe deserves. Meanwhile, Dagmara Dominczyk has made every second of Karolina’s no-nonsense, “business first” mindset since Logan’s death count. And since she’s been retained, she may have more stuff to come. Or Snook’s “spot” could just go to another “White Lotus” lady, like Sabrina Impacciatore, who’s the kind of passion pick who’d work well on a restricted ballot.

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Christopher Rosen: I love Dominczyk (in another life we were on the same jury at the Montclair Film Festival in Montclair, New Jersey, where she lives with Patrick Wilson, her husband) and Lupe deserves it for her acid-tongued, Paul Ruddian “look at us” dig at Marcia (Hiam Abbass, coming for Best Drama Guest Actress as well). But if I was ranking additional “Succession” supporting actresses who could move into Snook’s spot in the category, I’d have to go with Zoe Winters. She burned hot and fast as Kerry, but what a performance. Winters came into the season like a house on fire as Logan’s right hand. When he died, she turned into Chuckles the Clown and caught a foul ball at Yankee Stadium. At Logan’s memorial, she became one of the show’s most tragic figures — and then took a taxi to the subway so she could go home to her little apartment. Winters, in short, has ruled this season and she’d be a deserving drama supporting actress nominee. (Coolidge, yes, but imagine if she and Brian Cox won her and his supporting actor Emmys; a boy can dream.) We don’t need to turn this into a “Succession”-only column (too late), so to double back to “Yellowjackets,” I agree double Shauna nominations would be fun here — and I could easily see Simone Kessell filling Snook’s spot in Best Supporting Actress for her turn as Lottie Matthews. But we’re really talking about a lot of the same shows — I thought the restricted ballot was supposed to open up the race to other contenders. We know it probably won’t but if it did, do you imagine a left-field contender emerging here to fill the Snook space?

joyceeng: As it stands, Winters is eligible in guest, but I wouldn’t put it past Kerry to take a taxi to the subway to crash Logan’s funeral or an ATN broadcast on election night. The restricted ballot ought to help passion picks on weaker shows/shows with lower visibility, but as we’ve talked about before, Mass TV might nullify its power. There is simply too much TV — and too much premiering again in the spring logjam — and not enough time to watch everything. Last night, my friend asked if “Mrs. Davis” is good. I said yes and he should watch it, but he’s currently in the middle of “Beef,” which he started last week, and doesn’t want to start another new show right now. I suspect a lot of voters might feel this way tenfold — just overwhelmed by Content. So I can see them defaulting to former nominees and winners like Yvonne Strahovksi and Ann Dowd. “Handmaid’s” has also never missed this category. Season 5 was mixed and I currently don’t have “Handmaid’s” represented anywhere above the line, which feels like a mistake for a show that once wrung every nomination it could get out of three orphaned episodes. Ironically, it’s predicted to get a nomination in one category it has missed before, drama actress. Moss is in fifth place in the odds, so Snook wouldn’t even displace her when she cracks the top six (sorry to Helen Mirren). “Handmaid’s” bombed in the winter, but maybe the awards body that’s loved it the most will send it good weather?

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Can ‘Mrs. Davis’ and ‘The Diplomat’ crash the drama races?

Christopher Rosen: It does feel like “Handmaid’s Tale” is being slept on this cycle — probably fatigue and the allure of the newer things to embrace. It feels like it should get in for drama series, particularly because we’ve had a hard time filling that list out — and I think Strahovski would maybe be the pick for supporting over Dowd based on her arc alone. But maybe we should just put them both in? I wouldn’t put it past me to do that within the next few days. But I’ll leave you with the last word by asking a question: If “Mrs. Davis” does actually pop, could Elizabeth Marvel slide in with Betty Gilpin, who I remain steadfast in hopedicting?

joyceeng: I think Marvel is a TBD, especially since her best material is in the last two episodes. “Mrs. Davis” didn’t pop as much as I would’ve liked it to following its release last week, which is not surprising to me. It was a good call to release the first four episodes simultaneously, but its wacky WTFness is not everyone’s cup of tea. But if you get on board, it is so much fun and constantly, slyly recontextualizes everything you’ve seen. You’ll be happy to hear that I have also added Gilpin (RIP to my triple Yellowjackets) and am mostly banking on the Betty Gilpin Hive in the TV academy. If they get her in for this, then they are more powerful than Mrs. Davis herself. Uh, itself.

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