Emmy Experts Typing: How many acting awards will ‘Beef’ serve up?

Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·10 min read
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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we look at the limited races, many of which “Beef” is predicted to win.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday, and the news we’ve expected since the Screen Actors Guild went on strike became relatively official late Thursday evening: The 2023 Emmy Awards ceremony has moved off its Sept. 18 date for parts unknown – but likely January. We’ve already typed and talked about this, but to get it down in typographical font once again: It’s silly to hold an awards ceremony for the 2022-23 television season during the heart of the 2023-24 eligibility window and pretend it can go forth with the same level of interest, pomp and circumstance. My vote that no one involved with this decision has asked for would be an embargoed press release of winners as soon as the writers, actors and studios strike a deal (in November?), followed by a “celebration of television” in January. That way, Kieran Culkin can still give an Emmy speech even if his victory has been known for months. But we’re not here to type about television schedules and strike resolutions. Instead, our task today is the limited series race. (Even though the Emmys ceremony is aimlessly drifting in the wind, Phase 2 and its voting schedule go forth as planned.) We were both Team “Beef” for months, and nothing derailed our faith in the Netflix show heading into nominations. Now that it’s landed 13 nominations — the most for a limited series contender alongside “Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” — I feel even more confident in its (very) eventual victory. Right now, I’ve got “Beef” winning series, actor for Steven Yeun, actress for Ali Wong and even supporting actor for Young Mazino. That last prediction makes me either a lunatic or a Cassandra. I’m hoping for the latter: Paul Walter Hauser has the lead in our combined odds for his great performance in “Black Bird,” but as you rightly predicted for weeks, the TV academy didn’t care to remember “Black Bird” all that much (this after it was a soft performer in the winter outside of Hauser). Mazino, meanwhile, currently ranks fourth in the odds behind Hauser, Richard Jenkins for “Monster” and Ray Liotta for “Black Bird.” It seems like a no-chance pick, but I feel like he’s the Julianne Nicholson of this race. She won for “Mare of Easttown,” a show academy voters loved, against the heavily favored Kathryn Hahn in a flashy villain performance. (In this labored comparison, that makes Joseph Lee the “Beef” version of Jean Smart. Sure?) Maybe history repeats itself here? At the very least, I think Mazino should be ahead of Jenkins and Liotta, all respect to both men. But tell me, Joyce, how do you see that race shaping up – and what do you make of the supporting actress race as well?

joyceeng: Obviously the solution is for the Emmys to announce the winners on X Twitter and hire the Golden Globes’ social media icon. Music is the best medicine, I hear. But no, the ceremony ought to be in 2023 — and ideally before the Globes and Critics Choice Awards and whoever announce their noms in December — but I won’t hold my breath. I still have PWH winning. Yes, I clocked the voters’ general indifference towards “Black Bird,” but I’ve always said its main base of support was the acting branch, and lo and behold, three of its four nominations are for acting. Hauser and Taron Egerton (and a dash of Liotta) were the only parts of the show getting singled out in the winter, and the first two landed SAG noms, the show’s only guild bids. “Black Bird’s” underwhelming Emmy performance would be a greater concern for Hauser if the entire membership votes for all the winners, but it does not. Like I said last week, this category feels like one people might overthink and he’ll wind up being the next Ben Whishaw. “A Very English Scandal” also got four noms and missed series, but Whishaw was able to hang on to his (ostensibly soft) season-long frontrunner status and prevail. Hauser is already better positioned than Whishaw because he made SAG and the latter did not. The Nicholson comp for Mazino doesn’t really work for me because she had a fire tape with the “Mare” finale that contains multiple moments that just wreck you. It’s the type of performance to which actors really respond and that was when the Emmy talk for her started in earnest. No shade to Mazino, who’s great on “Beef” and I would have no problem with him winning, but he doesn’t really have anything on that level. He is the most prominent supporting performer who interacts heavily with both Yeun and Wong, but whereas Nicholson owned her show’s finale, Mazino is not even in his. PWH is arguably closer to Nicholson with the meatier role. Supporting actress is as it’s always been: between Claire Danes and Niecy Nash-Betts. I’ve always had Danes and still have her, especially after “Fleishman Is in Trouble” was able to secure a slot for Lizzy Caplan in the tough lead category and voters didn’t go ga-ga over Ryan Murphy actors for once, giving “Dahmer” the bare minimum three acting noms everyone expected. But I would be lying if I didn’t say, in my deepest of hearts, I would love to see the legend herself, Merritt Wever, win and deliver another insta-classic speech. It’ll be the best way to mark the 10th anniversary!

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Christopher Rosen: Mazino isn’t in the finale, but I’d put his material and performance in the penultimate episode in the Nicholson airspace. (That the ninth episode has some of Yeun’s best work, to me, only buttresses Mazino’s chances.) Plus, the acting branch liked “Black Bird” but they really liked “Beef” — at least if we’re going on nominations totals alone. So I don’t think that really matters, or even gives “Black Bird” or Hauser an edge. But I’m also left to wonder, maybe neither Hauser nor Mazino win here and Emmy fave Murray Bartlett steps in for the upset? The actors’ unexpected love for “Welcome to Chippendales” also makes me think Annaleigh Ashford and particularly Juliette Lewis might have fighter’s chances in supporting actress. (I’d be more inclined to pick one of them instead of Wever, history, and iconic speeches be damned.) But this could also be overthinking, like you typed, and I don’t know if Emmy voters are going to spend all that much mental energy on these categories when it would be easy to just rubber-stamp things through with Hauser and Danes. So let me ask about some of the other limited series categories: I’ve spent this whole column typing about how “Beef” rules, but I have “Fleishman” winning both writing and directing. Is that even a little bit possible or does “Beef” win one or both of the categories for Lee Sung Jin?

joyceeng: Having more acting nominations doesn’t mean you’ll win a lot of categories (just ask “Succession” — or specifically for limited, “When They See Us”). One-on-one, I’d still give the edge to Hauser. But I’d love to see Bartlett to win so he — assuming he doesn’t win in guest for “The Last of Us — could be a two-time winner just like Nick De Noia. In retrospect, the “Welcome to Chippendales” over-performance makes sense and we would’ve seen it coming had we had more (any) data points from the winter that they were watching it. We all wrongly assumed they weren’t because it only managed a Critics Choice nom for Bartlett and there wasn’t a lot of chatter about it, but we can now see that was likely due to its late release. But the performances are loud and actor-friendly, and in Kumail Nanjiani‘s case, against type. I have “Beef” in writing but “Fleishman” in directing for now. If “Beef” only had one directing nominee, I wouldn’t even think twice about picking it. You can overcome a vote-split in directing with one other nominee, but my thing with “Beef” right now is I’m not sure which of “The Great Fabricator” and “Figures of Light” actually has the edge. The latter is first in the odds and the former is in third (with “Dahmer’s” “Silenced” in between), but I’m just like, “Is that in first because it’s the finale that’s directed by the creator and showrunner?” It’s a wonderful episode with lots of striking compositions, but “The Great Fabricator” is the flashier hour. It kind of reminds me of when everyone was predicting “This Is Not for Tears” to win directing for “Succession,” but “Hunting” won instead. I suppose the combo that makes the most sense is “Beef” winning directing and “Fleishman” taking writing, but there’s no vote-split potential in the latter category. The odds also have Evan Peters in first ahead of Yeun, but I feel more confident in Yeun winning than I do in Wong, who is in first, but she has competition not just in SAG champ Jessica Chastain but Dominique Fishback. Fishback wasn’t even in the predicted top six to get a nomination, which always cracked me up because it was very evident that there’s a lotta passion for her performance even if “Swarm” isn’t quite all that. I’m not predicting her to win yet, but I would not be surprised if her own hive turned out.

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Christopher Rosen: I too think Yeun is a safer bet to win for “Beef” than Wong. The other issue for her is that she’s playing one of those “difficult” women academy voters seem to find fault with. Fishback could easily ride her passionate fan base to a win and Chastain clearly looms large as an alternate as well. That felt like the most competitive category before the nominations were announced and it remains so. We never give shine to the TV movies but let’s briefly throw some flowers at this year’s top nominees — “Prey,” “Weird,” and “Fire Island.” All three received writing nominations and “Prey” also landed among the directing nominees. That rules, particularly because “Prey” is a great genre movie and a thoughtful expansion of dusty IP. If “Prey” had been a theatrical release last year, I’m sure it would have performed well at the box office — at least judging by the horror debuts and earnings from the last 12 months. But it also wouldn’t have sniffed Oscar consideration, so I wonder if double Emmy nominee Dan Trachtenberg — he of the classic “10 Cloverfield Lane” — is happy with how all this turned out. Do you think he could steal one of those writing or directing wins away from “Beef” or “Fleishman”? I’ll let you have the last word.

joyceeng: I thought about predicting Trachetenberg in directing for a hot minute before going to “Fleishman.” That’s such a cool nom that would’ve never happened at the Oscars, which is also why I prefer the Emmys, for all its issues (but hey, what awards group doesn’t have any?), to the Oscars. Like we’ve discussed, TV movie is competitive this year and they should move the category back to the main ceremony when it’s rescheduled for 11-14 years from now.

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