Emmy Experts Typing: Is this finally Selena Gomez’s year to break into Best Comedy Actress?
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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss the top-heavy Best Comedy Actress category.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back to type about comedy — and not the comedy of seeing Tom Ripley try to dodge a runaway motorboat. I’m typing about real comedy… like “The Bear.” Well, OK, maybe not just “The Bear” since that’s all but assured of winning multiple Emmy Awards in September in a rerun of the 2023 (’24) Emmys we just saw in January. But let’s start there because while we agree with the consensus that the series, Jeremy Allen White and Ebon Moss-Bachrach should all repeat as Emmy winners this year, we’re both against the current tide in the Best Comedy Actress race. Most experts and users predict Ayo Edebiri will win there for Season 2 after upgrading from Best Comedy Supporting Actress, which she won for Season 1. I could see it, obviously, but I’m holding out for a hero named Jean Smart. The two-time Best Comedy Actress winner is back again with “Hacks” and while absence should make the heart grow fonder, it feels like the opposite is maybe is true when it comes to these predictions. Yes, the academy has said “yes, chef” to “The Bear” and not even the final season of “Ted Lasso” could stop its ascendance. But “Hacks” only missed one cycle and the show hasn’t lost a step, at least based on the two episodes I’ve gotten to see (the same ones that premiered at SXSW). Smart remains unimpeachably great, and as the recent Variety profile revealed, the show gets to move Deborah into some interesting places in Season 3. So she still has the material, she still has the industry love (seriously, who doesn’t love Jean Smart?), and we can surmise that were “Hacks” Season 3 eligible for Emmy consideration last year, she would’ve probably won again. (No disrespect to Quinta Brunson, who has backed up her Season 2 Emmy win with her best season yet on “Abbott Elementary.”) I guess I don’t really see a reason to put Edebiri into first place yet — a statement that could surely change once “The Bear” Season 3 drops in June, since if she has some great arc in those episodes, it’s likely that would impact her candidacy for Season 2 even if she won’t win an Emmy for Season 3 until 2025. So I’ve got those three in my Best Comedy Actress field and I’ve rounded out the category with two beloved “SNL” veterans: this weekend’s host Kristen Wiig for “Palm Royale” and my favorite Maya Rudolph for “Loot” (I didn’t predict Rudolph just because I hosted a panel with Rudolph and the cast of the Apple TV+ comedy series which is back this week, but it also didn’t hurt). That means I’ve got Selena Gomez in sixth place, meaning I think she’ll get nominated if this category goes back to six slots after dropping to five last year… but I’m not sure she’ll make it if not. As I gird my loins for the Selenator outrage, give me your take on this race — and please take credit for being the earliest adopted of future Best Comedy Actress nominee Rudolph.
joyceeng: Well, there’s nothing really to gloat about yet until she actually gets nominated, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she remains behind Wiig and Gomez in the odds come July 17. Wiig has been lodged in fourth place for weeks and feels like one of those pre-premiere predictions based on her name and anticipation for the show. She is doing a lot on “Palm Royale,” which hasn’t exactly exploded and is more divisive than “Loot” Season 2. She can obviously get in, but she has more drawbacks than, say, “Shrinking,” which had a much warmer reception last year and delivered two surprising acting nominations, neither of whom was Harrison Ford. But if you told me only one “SNL” alum was making the cut, I’d bet on Rudolph, who has bagged five Emmys since 2020. She won voice-over performance last year for “Big Mouth” and will probably win it again for No. 6. Your fave could never. You were so close to dying on the Selena hill last year and I feel like you’re still scarred from it. I never had Gomez in last year, but I think she can finally get in this year. I am not at all confident in it, but I am more confident than I have been the last two years. The circumstances are right — it’s a less competitive field and her show is locked for a series nomination, which you cannot say the same for most of these other contenders. And just because she hasn’t been nominated in this category yet, it doesn’t mean voters are actively snubbing her. Steve Martin was also AWOL last year after all. She may have missed out by one spot both times. Gomez could mimic Mandy Moore, someone who was also discounted after back-to-back snubs but surprisingly made it in for Season 3 of “This Is Us” after her category emptied out. Gomez feels like one of those contenders whose chances are reliant on the strength of the field, and this field is top-heavy with the Big Three. If it remains a field of five, two open spots is not a lot (Moore got nominated in a field of seven due to a tie in 2019, a year before the Emmys adopted the proportional rule), but she could have an edge on the strength of her show alone. You had Devery Jacobs once upon a time. Hardly shocking that you dropped her, but I dunno if “Reservation Dogs” can surprise with acting nominations the way “The Americans” and “Schitt’s Creek” have done. We both have it making series for the first time for its third and final season, but I can see it emulating its FX mate “What We We Do in the Shadows,” which has struggled to break into acting despite multiple series noms. One thing more thing I will say about Gomez: Hulu has already kickstarted your fave, the campaign. The trio plus Meryl Streep did an FYC panel last month hosted by Jane Lynch. Obviously last year was impacted by the actors’ strike, but it already feels like they’ve done more than last year. Maybe Martin’s snub and “Only Murders in the Building’s” decrease in nominations made everyone realize you can’t take it for granted that they’ll just get in?
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Christopher Rosen: I do love campaigning and I also feel like Season 3 of “Only Murders” was much better than Season 2, so I’m not surprised they’re doing a bigger push. Everything you wrote about Gomez, the overall race, and the comparison to Moore is accurate… but I still wonder if Emmy voters actually care. They’ve already decided Gomez isn’t nominee material and so are they really going to change their minds now? It’s possible, but I think more difficult than it seems. We know they love Steve Martin, and he probably would’ve gotten in with six slots last year. Do we think Gomez would’ve made it in with six slots as well? To quote Gomez’s great “Only Murders” co-star, I have such doubts. Wiig would be an easy miss, although I also hosted a panel for “Palm Royale” and the vibe from everyone in the room and in the cast was that if she doesn’t get nominated it would be akin to a federal offense. She is really great on the show and threads the many needles provided to her in terms of its tone. But it’s also a new show and we know she isn’t as beloved by the academy as Rudolph. Jacobs could certainly get in here and I could see both her and D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai landing among the acting nominees if your boy John Landgraf makes good on his “Reservation Dogs” promise. But allow me to throw out one underdog beyond the obvious: Renée Elise Goldsberry for “Girls5eva.” The show hasn’t gotten the Netflix bounce many of its fans were hoping for, and everything I typed about Gomez would apply to Goldsberry. But, Netflix? Maybe she gets in for going viral with Wickie’s hardscrabble life?
joyceeng: But “they” never “decided” anything. The convo around snubs always makes it sound like voters congregate in a (Zoom) room and collectively agree on who to nominate and who to snub when the reality is that everyone individually casts their vote on their own and it’s just a numbers game. If someone gets in, that means they got enough votes. If someone doesn’t, that means they didn’t get enough votes. It doesn’t mean they received zero votes or that voters as a whole have blacklisted them from getting nominated. I think Gomez has her fans in the acting branch, which clearly has not been enough to get her a nomination yet, and it’s not about voters “changing their minds” as it is about whether her base support — let’s assume it remains the same — can carry her into an open spot in a weak field. Not to belabor the Moore comp, but she was never nominated again for “This Is Us” as stronger shows and buzzier performances came into the mix (Zendaya, Jennifer Aniston, Laura Linney, Olivia Colman, Emma Corrin, Emmy fave Uzo Aduba, etc) and her aging tearjerker shed support. 2019 was her one shot and she took it. Regardless of whether you think Gomez will get in or not, I think everyone can agree this is a “make it or break it” year for her. If she misses again, she’s poised to be “Only Murders'” Courteney Cox. REG has always served on “Girls5eva,” but the lack of a Netflix bump is more concerning to me than the impending Emmy snubs, which look increasingly likely, because it’s basically telling us that the general public, unfortunately, may just not care about the show. Peacock’s lower visibility has always been blamed for “Girls5eva’s” lack of success, but there’s no streamer more visible than Netflix. The show got a writing nomination in Season 1 and that’s sadly been it. Not even a nom for any its hilarious, catchy bangers. At this point, I’ll take a Season 4 renewal over Emmy noms. Speaking of Peacock, it’s fielding a former two-time nominee in Kaley Cuoco, who’s great on “Based on a True Story,” a conceptually similar (murder podcast inspo) show to “Only Murders.” I don’t think she’ll get in since I haven’t heard a single person mention the show since I talked to Chris Messina in December, but the irony if she does make it in over Gomez?
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Christopher Rosen: That would be objectively hilarious, but even as a captain in the “Flight Attendant” fan club, I don’t think it will ever happen. You make some good points about Gomez, and I’ll keep those in mind when I eventually have my come to Joycesus moment with her in my final predictions. Anything more predictable than that?
joyceeng: I don’t think anything I say is powerful enough for you to forsake your face-to-face interactions with Wiig and Rudolph, but maybe the Pickwick triplets can ensure Gomez is the last person you speak to before you lock in your predictions.
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