Emmy Experts Typing: What will make the cut in the crowded limited series race?

Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·11 min read
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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we break down the loaded limited series field.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’ve reached what is maybe my favorite Emmys category of the year. Peak TV is dead and Mass TV is arguably on the ropes, but you wouldn’t know it from the absolutely stacked limited series and TV movie roster. What a time to be alive? There are multiple series here that I’m excited about, too many, in fact, to fit into the five slots for Best Limited Series. But right now I feel pretty good about the shows I do have represented. First in my heart and on my predictions list is “Shōgun,” our favorite “Succession” prequel and just a complete smash. Great crafts, beautiful crafts, and several standout performances including but not limited to Hiroyuki Sanada, Anna Sawai and Cosmo Jarvis. I have all three landing among the 2024 Emmy nominees, naturally, and I’ll probably add Tadanobu Asano as well. After “Shōgun,” I’ve got the other expected nominees. “Lessons in Chemistry” was a guild favorite in the winter and feels like the safest pick of this bunch — and probably should be the de facto frontrunner right now. The actual frontrunner, according to the odds, is “Fargo,” and I have that too because this was the strongest season of the show in forever, relevant to the moment while basking in the nostalgia of the original movie in a way that felt leveled up from prior installments. My fourth pick is another winter favorite, “True Detective: Night Country,” which should give Jodie Foster her first Emmy win. For my final spot, I’ve allowed my recency bias and the strength of Netflix to win out with “Ripley.” We’re not allowed to talk or type about that show until next week when it debuts, but after burning through the screeners, I immediately put it here and jumped Andrew Scott all the way up to second in my Best Limited/TV Movie Actor picks behind Sanada. But by putting “Ripley” in the Netflix spot, it means I have eschewed the streamer’s other big contenders like “Griselda,” “A Man in Full,” and “Eric.” It also means I’ve abandoned “The Regime” and “The Sympathizer,” two HBO shows that are likely to land nominations elsewhere. I’m also out on your favorite, “Masters of the Air,” aka “Hunks in the Air,” which is fifth in the odds and has the pedigree of “Band of Brothers” and “The Pacific,” two Emmy Award-winning series from Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks. Joyce, will the IP of “Hunks” put it in a better position to land among this year’s nominees? And do I have the wrong Netflix show represented here? Help me figure this out.

joyceeng: I love me some “Hunks,” but I have yet to put it in my lineup. I can definitely see it getting in the same way its WWII companion predecessors did: boosted by below-the-line support but no acting nominations, which would be upsetting for me and my fave duo, Austin Butler and Callum Turner. But it feels like the type of show that hooks voters with its story — the Greatest Generation! — and scope but not necessarily its acting. Like “Shōgun,” “Hunks” has great crafts, beautiful crafts, not to mention the longest main titles of the season. Perhaps ever? The other reason I’ve hedged on it is because I already have “Lessons in Chemistry.” Apple TV+ has never received a Best Limited Series nomination before. Not to pat myself on the back, but I called “Black Bird’s” snub last year based on its suboptimal guild run when it was in, like, third place in the odds. “Lessons” showed up everywhere it needed to at the guilds and overcame a triple vote-split to win DGA, so it ought to break Apple’s duck in the category. Can Apple snag two spots? Especially if it remains a field of five? The streamer also has several other hopefuls here, including my dear “Manhunt” and “Franklin,” but I think it’s clear that, outside of “Lessons,” “Hunks” is its priority. You slotting in “Ripley” after seeing it is the least surprising thing since last week when you added “3 Body Problem” to drama series after it premiered. I thought about adding “Ripley” after watching it a few weeks ago, but I ended up only putting in Scott for now. I don’t currently have a Netflix show, which feels weird, but I’m gonna wait to see how “Ripley” lands with the people next week first. It’s not exactly a “Beef,” you know? The obvious Netflix alt is “Griselda,” which I had in previously and was a hit but in a quieter way than “Inventing Anna” or “Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” were. I know you’re not gonna like hearing this, but I’ve also toyed with the idea of a “Fargo” snub. Season 5 was obviously a return to form, but Emmy voters have never been huge “Fargo” stans, and we know when they move off of something — Season 4 only got three bids, all below the line — they might not go back, especially if there are new toys they like more. Plus, we know “Shōgun” is FX’s priority. I don’t think “Fargo” will perform as poorly as Season 4 did, but I can see it being the “shocking” series snub of the day, a la “Black Bird” last year and “Maid” two years ago. The other show in the top 10 in the odds is online fave “Fellow Travelers,” but I think its pockets of passion might be too small. Showtime also hasn’t produced a series nominee since “Escape at Dannemora,” a moderate hit, in 2019. Where are you on its Paramount+ with Showtime brethren “A Gentleman in Moscow” (out now!) the first show this season that made you weep?

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Christopher Rosen: I think the “Fargo” snub vibes are strong because of what you suggested: It’s not the top FX priority, the voters are enchanted by newer toys, and there might not be a lot of overall passion for it despite the uniformly great responses. Much to think about there. “A Gentleman in Moscow” is wonderful — a limited series that feels like a limited series and immediately gives the audience multiple compelling characters to root for throughout the show. I’ve certainly toyed with putting Ewan McGregor in my Best Limited/TV Movie Actor field — he won in the category for “Halston” during the COVID year and this is a better performance, plus he does the physical transformation thing as his character ages across multiple decades. It’s a lovely piece of work and, yes, it made me weep! The show is a winner — my favorite of the year so far not named “Shōgun” — but I wonder if people will even find it? “Halston” had the benefit of Netflix after all. HBO just dropped a new trailer for “The Sympathizer” and the screeners went out this week; I haven’t dug in yet, Joyce, but I assume you’ve already started. My instinct is that the show might be too arty and strange to break through in the series category when there are so many basic, down-the-middle shows available. But do you think “The Sympathizer” can be more than just an acting play for Robert Downey Jr., Sandra Oh and presumed breakout Hoa Xuande?

joyceeng: I haven’t made it too far into the screeners yet, but it would obviously be the “highbrow nominee” if it gets in. However, we’ve seen the past two years that voters have gone for more middlebrow, escapist and/or “fun” fare over deeper and perhaps more challenging material. Remember when you laughed in my face at my “Obi-Wan Kenobi” prediction last year? Who had both “Inventing Anna” and “Pam & Tommy” getting in over “Maid”? I’m also slightly concerned about “The Sympathizer’s” April 14 premiere date if it’s not a breakout hit like “Mare of Easttown” (which was also an incredibly accessible series) was when it debuted April 17, 2021. Late spring premieres have been the go-to strategy to try to be the last thing voters see, but with the deluge of shows in recent years, earlier launches have proven to be more fruitful. Three of last year’s nominees premiered in the back half of 2022, while “Daisy Jones & the Six” hilariously shoved all 10 episodes into March and “Beef” dropped April 6. “Beef” was a day-and-date release, so voters could’ve binged the whole thing that weekend, but “The Sympathizer” will have to build weekly momentum through May 26. Maybe the hype of RDJ playing four characters will do the trick? He’s already the odds-on favorite to win supporting actor and I don’t really see that changing after the show premieres. You know I’d also be here for RDJ and Foster taking home Emmys together. A win for the “Home for the Holidays” hive! But I can see all four acting categories go a number of ways. I don’t think she’d win, but we both still have Kate Winslet in for “The Regime,” which has been polarizing, to say the least, but her bonkers performance can survive whatever hindrances the show has. You didn’t have your girl Sawai last time we talked, a true twist. I, of course, am not shocked at your fickleness, but this is your chance to explain your lack of faith.

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: What will make the cut in the wide-open drama field?

Christopher Rosen: I mostly had Sawai out for the goof, just so we could talk about Lily Gladstone for another contender, “Under the Bridge.” I’ve since rectified that mistake and have Sawai well represented — so much so that I almost wanted to predict her for my beloved “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” too. Winslet, Foster and another former Best Actress Oscar winner Brie Larson all feel pretty secure in that race, with Sawai as well. I’ve got Juno Temple and Naomi Watts filling out the rest of the category, but you’re already on the Temple snub train and I could see both her and Watts missing for some passion plays like Sofia Vergara, Gladstone or 2023 nominee Riley Keough. So many shows and I didn’t even mention “Genius: MLK/X,” which went out with a bit of a whimper despite being a well-appointed and well-acted series. I’d love to see Aaron Pierre break through for playing Malcolm X and I think Ron Cephas Jones would be a deserving posthumous nominee for playing Elijah Muhammad, but I just don’t believe those will materialize. As I typed earlier, there are so many contenders here we could go on for hours — “Mary & George,” “We Were the Lucky Ones,” “The Tattooist of Auschwitz,” “Apples Never Fall.” Before we jet, have you identified any dark horses that might pop in a surprising fashion as we move through May?

joyceeng: Well, last year, no one saw those four “Welcome to Chippendales” acting nominations coming. That was a sad true story but packaged in a very watchable, entertaining way. It was also on Hulu, which has low-key been voters’ second favorite streamer after Netflix for limited series. Hulu took up three limited series spots in 2022 and last year scored acting bids for the aforementioned “Chippendales” quartet and “Tiny Beautiful Things” pair Kathryn Hahn and Merritt Wever, along with directing and writing noms for “Prey,” and a writing mention for “Fire Island.” Hulu did not field a series nominee last year, but — not to contribute to the FX/Hulu confusion even more since you know how much I hate that — “Fleishman Is in Trouble” was nominated and that was an FX series that streamed exclusively on Hulu. It also nabbed a surprise nomination for Lizzy Caplan in addition to the expected one for Claire Danes. So I’d say keep an eye out on Hulu shows (“We Were the Lucky Ones,” “Under the Bridge”) and non-“Shōgun” FX shows that people will erroneously think are Hulu originals (“The Veil”). These lean more heavy than light and two of them have late premieres, so who knows? Also, now that Hulu on Disney+ is officially a thing, I cannot wait for these titles to be called Disney+ shows.

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