Emmy Experts Typing: Could ‘Succession’ break its own acting nomination record?

Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·9 min read
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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we wonder how many acting nominations “Succession” can score on a restricted ballot.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s the Friday before we make our final Emmy nominations predictions next week, so what better time than now to take one last look at the drama race before our actual last look? I’m not sure if people reading our weekly column realize this, but we both loved “Succession.” It’s true! I would say it’s not just my favorite show of the year but perhaps of forever. So I start here with that bit of throat-clearing to give some perspective on what I’m going to type here: I think people might be underestimating the total number of acting nominations “Succession” could land in 2023, one year after breaking an Emmy record for acting nominations. At the moment, our combined odds have the HBO juggernaut matching the 14 acting nominees it had last year with Sarah Snook, Jeremy Strong, Matthew Macfadyen and Harriet Walter predicted to win in their respective categories. But ever the maximalist, I’m going bigger. I’ve got “Succession” down for 16 acting nominations: Snook, Strong, Kieran Culkin, Brian Cox, J. Smith-Cameron, Justine Lupe, Macfadyen, Alexander Skarsgard, eldest son Alan Ruck, Nicholas Braun, Walter, Hiam Abbass, Cherry Jones, James Cromwell, Arian Moayed and Justin Kirk. I’ve been bullish on Lupe since the ballots arrived, and while I can see the argument against her nomination — she was never nominated on an unlimited ballot and now we’ve got a restricted ballot plus her best material was stuffed into the first half of the season, which feels like a memory after the incredible final episodes — to me, she’s a package deal with Ruck. In the guest categories, I’ve toyed with leaving both Jones and Moayed off the list, but then I realized people just love those characters. Jones won for Season 2 here and though she appeared in only the Season 4 premiere, Nan was an instant meme factory; Moayed certainly had more to do in earlier seasons, but since he’s Team Ken, baby, how could I go against such an online fave? My other add, technically a long shot if you believe the odds, is Kirk. But we both thought he could’ve been nominated in 2022 and I think the memory of his explosive “Succession” debut plus his unhinged acceptance speech in “America Decides” probably locks him in for a nomination as well. I know it’s a restricted ballot and that allows for more diversity of thought, but I also know Emmy voters love “Succession” and I think they’re going to go wild for the show wherever possible. Joyce, how many acting nominees do you think “Succession” gets this year? And then, talk to me about another series with the potential for multiple acting nominations — or maybe just two? I’m typing, of course, about “Yellowjackets.”

joyceeng: Color me shocked that you turned around on Jones. I’ve always had her because besides “Succession” being a behemoth, she’s someone who feels individually strong. #neverforget when she won Best Drama Guest Actress in 2019 for an episode of “The Handmaid’s Tale” (an orphaned episode at that) in which she appeared for less than two and a half minutes. Even she couldn’t believe it and thought Phylicia Rashad or Cicely Tyson should have won. If the unlimited ballot were still in play, I think “Succession” would absolutely eclipse its own record — and it still can, but it’s less of a sure thing. I have it getting 14 again at the moment. Obviously I would love to see ConWilla with his-and-her noms, but I think the circumstances in their respective categories are different. The “Succession” men are stronger than the men of “The White Lotus,” while the women of “The White Lotus” are stronger than the “Succession” ladies. Lupe and Eldest Son could get the same number of votes, but she could miss because there’s just more passion for Jennifer Coolidge, Meghann Fahy, Aubrey Plaza, Sabrina Impacciatore, Haley Lu Richardson, et al. It feels like there’s less of a consensus about the “White Lotus” men. No offense to him, but it doesn’t seem like many fans love F. Murray Abraham‘s turn (to be fair, he didn’t have the best storyline) and he’s being predicted because… he’s F. Murray Abraham? Kirk was robbed blind last year, but I haven’t slotted him in yet because I can see a scenario in which Cromwell is the only “Succession” guest actor nominee (I’m not predicting that; I also have Stewy). If it does break 14, then thoughts and prayers to everyone antidicting “Succession.” As for “Yellowjackets,” I have it getting the exact same acting noms it got last year: lead for Melanie Lynskey and supporting for Christina Ricci. As you know, I once had triple “Yellowjackets” in lead, way back before Season 2 premiered, and while I would not call this season a sophomore slump at all — there were several high points, the actors always deliver and no notes on the needle drops — I think its unevenness and the diminished buzz, an unfortunate consequence of airing opposite “Succession,” might prevent it from expanding. However, I am still thinking about adding a second Yellowjacket in lead because that category is a free-for-all after Snook, Lynskey and Bella Ramsey. I have Imelda Staunton as well, but I would not be shocked if she missed. Are you still clinging onto Elijah Wood?

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Christopher Rosen: I am still clinging to Wood — I’m the Jack to his Rose? — but I will probably abandon my boy for someone from “The White Lotus” when we do our final picks next week. Abraham is the popular pick, but as you mentioned, no one seems that excited about him or that entire storyline. I’ve got Tom Hollander locked into place because he played such a slippery villain; when they reboot “Lost,” I hope Hollander gets to play Ben Linus! But I keep wondering if maybe Theo James or Will Sharpe ultimately make it in as well. My rationale for them is kind of the same for Hollander: They get to play scenes opposite the beloved ladies and if you loved Fahy and Plaza on the show — and who loved the show and didn’t love them?! — then you had to enjoy those performances too. I’d put Sharpe over James in the end, if only because in Fahy’s big scene in the finale he is equally conflicted and mesmerizing. As for the Best Drama Actress race, I’m not ready to drop Staunton because that category is pretty soft. I do think Juliette Lewis could make it in — particularly because of what happened to her character in the “Yellowjackets” finale — but I’m still not sure people really enjoyed the finale. Plus, if I was going to add another “Yellowjackets” lady, my preference would be Sophie Nélisse. Regardless of what happens in that category, we both think Snook is going to win in a walk. But drama actor is awfully… dramatic? The odds say it’s Strong, we both think Culkin, and I’ve seen many a pundit just go with Pedro Pascal. What do you make of the lead actor race at this point?

joyceeng: Nélisse deserves and I’d be higher on her if the season had been stronger, but maybe she can surprise in one of those open slots. This is a category in which I once had your girl Betty Gilpin and I never added her after “Mrs. Davis” switched to limited. After noms are out, I’m sure the drama actor odds will look quite different. Culkin has topped out in third place right now because he was a late addition to the category, people don’t update and also might not feel the need to move Strong or Bob Odenkirk, who’s in second, around when they’re predicting them for nominations. As we’ve discussed, many folks are anticipating a “Succession” vote-split, paving the way for a non-“Succession” dude to win. It happened last year, right? I’d argue Lee Jung-jae had a lot more passion last year and there wasn’t as much excitement about Strong or Cox. Season 3 was Tom’s season and Macfadyen rightfully won, overcoming Culkin and Braun. This category feels is more like that race and the 2020 Best Drama Actor race, when Strong beat Cox. There’s a ton of passion for Culkin and also extra urgency since it’s the last season — an incentive that might’ve been missing last year for Strong and Cox. We’ll never know, but I feel like the CE-Bros will be 1-2 in whatever order in the end. Not to double back to supporting actress, but I recently added Anne-Marie Duff, so I now have “Bad Sisters” getting into series, lead and supporting actress. Is this a bad or good move?

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Christopher Rosen: I’d say good. “Bad Sisters” and Sharon Horgan feel like increasingly safe bets, at least from our vantage point, so Duff could get carried along as well. I’ve of the mind that the industry does appreciate “Bad Sisters” and that it has a different flavor than many of the other contenders helps it stand out among the genre stuff. I’ve got Horgan and Keri Russell rounding out my actress lineup after the expected four (I’m including Staunton on that list). Is it possible “The Diplomat” also makes it into the series race too? Or am I allowing the fact that “The Diplomat” was a big Netflix hit to cloud my judgment? I’ll let you have the final words here until next week!

joyceeng: I also have Russell in a shaky sixth, but I do not have “The Diplomat.” It was a hit for Netflix but certainly not on a “Squid Game” or “Bridgerton” level, and it doesn’t feel like it’s maintained a lot of chatter. It’s one I think would’ve fared better on an unlimited ballot. But who knows? It’s a very breezy, entertaining watch and another female-led, non-genre series that’s an apple in a bag of oranges.

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